HCFCD annual spending trend

HCFCD Spending Declines for Fourth Straight Year, San Jacinto Watershed Still Slighted

1/26/25 – According to data provided in response to a FOIA request, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending has now declined for the fourth straight year, despite $3 billion left in the flood bond (including committed partnership funding).

HCFCD spending more than doubled after passage of flood bond in 2018, but is now less than in 2019. $2.1 billion of the $5 billion in the bond has now been spent.

High Cost of Slowing Down

HCFCD spending picked up slightly last quarter compared to the previous quarter. But overall, the trend is still down compared to the years following passage of the flood bond in 2018.

A quarter-by-quarter analysis shows the decline has not been perfectly smooth. Dips and bumps have occurred with changes in management, direction, organization, and processes imposed by Commissioners Court. But overall the slowdown has been unmistakeable and costly.

Between 2018 and January 2025, the United States experienced a cumulative inflation rate of approximately 25.62%. Thus, the $3 billion remainder of the $5 billion flood bond has lost approximately a quarter of its purchasing power. And that means some planned projects may not get done.

Equity Prioritization Index Ignores Flood Damage

One of the biggest changes: the county’s focus on equity in prioritizing bond projects. On the left of the graph above, money was allocated to mitigation projects in areas with the most flood damage.

But starting in August 2019, that changed. Commissioners started ranking projects using a multi-factor index that omitted damage while emphasizing the average income in an area. Then, they kept tweaking the formula for the next three years.

The constant changes let Democratic commissioners direct money to pet projects in their precincts. But it also has reportedly slowed down HCFCD, and delayed or denied flood-mitigation assistance to areas that desperately need it.

San Jacinto Watershed: Worst Flooding, Modest Mitigation Investment

For instance, in five major storms since 2000 (Allison, Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey and Imelda), the San Jacinto watershed ranked 8th among Harris County’s 23 watersheds in terms of damaged structures.

Based on HCFCD Federal Reports. Total number of damaged structures in five major storms between 2000 and 2020 shown on right.

The San Jacinto also ranked 4th in the percentage of its population that experienced flood damage in those storms. That indicates how disruptive flooding has been to a watershed.

Based on 2022 population estimates by HCFCD in each watershed.

The San Jacinto had almost half the flood-related deaths in Harris County during Harvey – 15 out of 36.

And we also had the deepest flooding in the county during Harvey – more than 20 feet above flood stage!

worst first
Chart showing feet above flood stage of 33 gages on misc. bayous in Harris County during Harvey. San Jacinto is at far left.

However, since Harvey, the San Jacinto watershed ranks 14th in terms of HCFCD spending.

Hopeful Comparisons Between Short- and Long-Term Trends

The San Jacinto watershed’s ranking increased from 8th place last quarter compared to 14th “since Harvey”. That’s a hopeful sign. Work in some other watersheds, such as Brays, finally appears to be winding down. Compare the relative positions of Brays and San Jacinto above and below.

Here are the actual spending totals during the two time periods. They vary by more than a 1000 to 1. Political priorities have skewed the numbers.

As of end of 2024

The lifecycle stages of projects have also skewed the numbers. For instance, within a project’s lifecycle, construction usually ranks as the most expensive stage by far. Looking at the percent of construction dollars within the “Total Since Harvey” column on the right above, yields the table below.

From Harvey through end of 2024

Watersheds near the bottom of the list may have had upfront studies completed, but little more. The San Jacinto’s low ranking (#17) indicates that commissioners have prioritized mitigation work in other watersheds higher.

Remember that studies don’t mitigate flooding. Construction does.

Another hopeful comparison shows how the percentage of HCFCD spending in watersheds with a majority of low-to-moderate income (LMI) residents decreased last quarter compared to the longer-term trend.

Harris County has eight watersheds with majority LMI populations. LMI means residents earn less than the median income for the region.

Since Harvey, LMI watersheds have received more than half of all funding from HCFCD, despite the fact that there are only eight such watersheds vs. 15 others.

On a per watershed basis, the LMI watersheds received twice the money on average. But last quarter, the percentages were much closer to equal.

Of course, the imminent kickoff of $863 million worth of projects funded by HUD – with a 70% cumulative LMI percentage – could skew these percentages back in the other direction faster than you can say Rodney Ellis.

I have two big worries at this point:

  • Inflation’s Toll – Will there be enough money left in the flood bond to complete all the projects in it – especially if we have to wait years more to finish the HUD projects?
  • HCFCD Spending Slowdown – Will HCFCD be able to complete almost a billion dollars worth of flood-mitigation projects before HUD deadlines?

If either worry comes to pass, projects that benefit higher income neighborhoods may not get done.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/26/25

2707 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.