Lake Houston Gates Project Reaches 30% Design Benchmark

2/6/26 – The project to add more gates to the Lake Houston Dam has reached the 30% design benchmark, according to Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger. The 30% milestone is widely regarded among engineers as the point where the design becomes real enough that you can start working out the final details, including costs, geotechnical work, and permitting.

The plan calls for adding 11 new tainter gates to the eastern, earthen portion of the dam. They could release 78,000 cubic feet per second – as much as Lake Conroe released at the peak of Hurricane Harvey.

site of proposed gates for Lake Houston on east side of dam — *Eastern portion of Lake Houston Dam/Spillway where gates would go.*

Flickinger added that the design team is already engaging with regulatory agencies, including the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE-Galveston), and Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD), to discuss project details and streamline permitting review schedules.

Significance of 30% Benchmark

The 30% completion benchmark is a widely recognized milestone in engineering and infrastructure project development. It marks the transition from conceptual planning into a sufficiently defined design that supports credible cost, schedule, and constructability judgments.

Decision-makers quote it because it is the earliest point at which a project begins to behave like a real, executable asset rather than a rough idea.

While definitions vary slightly by agency, 30% usually falls at the end of preliminary engineering (PE) or schematic design.

Typical deliverables include:

Horizontal and vertical alignments
Right-of-way footprint
Identification of utility conflicts
Substantial completion of hydrology and hydraulics models
Definition of drainage pathways
Identification of jurisdictional constraints (e.g., wetlands)
Likely permitting strategy
Elimination of potential fatal flaws
Engineer’s opinion of probable costs (much tighter than possible before 30%)

In this case, according to one engineer who previously worked on the project, they would also include pre- and post inundation maps and identification of the extent of areas benefitted.

First Defensible Go/No-Go Decision Gate

Why does the 30% point get quoted so often? According to ChatGPT, it’s the first defensible “go/no go” gate. Before 30%, optimism drives a project. At 30%, physics drive it.

At the 30% point, uncomfortable truths surface and cost escalation becomes visible.

Uncertainty gives way to measurable reality
Optimism encounters hydrology, soil, and gravity
Financial exposure becomes calculable
Scope reality emerges

In professional terms, it is the first point of engineering credibility. Before 30%, you deal with selection risk (Do we have the right idea?). After 30%, project managers deal with execution risk. For instance:

Will regulators approve it?
Will available funding meet Benefit/Cost requirements?
How will it affect downstream residents?
Will it meet needs outlined in the SJRA’s Joint Reservoir Operations Study, which is still incomplete.
How will construction of new gates dovetail with dam repairs?

Flickinger Already Met with Mayor About Next Steps

The City still hasn’t released details of its 30% plans for the gates.

However, City Council Member Fred Flickinger said, “Now we know how much more money we need to find to get this project done.” He has already talked to the Mayor’s staff about going to Austin to get it.

There’s still a long way to go. But we have reached a significant milestone and, according to Flickinger, all energies are headed in the right direction.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/6/26

3083 Days since Hurricane Harvey