Camp Mystic flood hazards

Top Flood-Related Stories of 2025: Part I – The Storms

12/27/25 – There was so much flood news this year that I’m splitting the Top Flood-Related Stories of 2025 up into three parts. Part I will cover the storms. Part II will cover funding and government regulations. And Part III will cover the progress of mitigation efforts.

Cyclones Ravage Indian Ocean

On the other side of the world, tropical cyclones ravaged Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Thailand. Approximately 200,000 people died altogether. The cyclones also destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes.

Cyclone Senyar

According to Wikipedia, Cyclone Senyar caused heavy flooding and landslides across central and southern Thailand, Peninsular Malaysia, and Sumatra, Indonesia, killing at least 1,400 people and causing US$19.8 billion in damages.

At least 1,138 deaths, more than 7,000 injuries, and 163 missing persons were reported in Indonesia.

Thailand also recorded at least 297 fatalities and 102 injuries, including 229 deaths, although local sources claim a much higher figure. Malaysia reported 3 deaths. Senyar is listed as one of the deadliest tropical cyclones in this century.

Cyclone Ditwah

Around the same time, Cyclone Ditwah, dumped heavy rains on Sri Lanka off the southeastern coast of India. The storm caused heavy flooding and landslides that killed more than 600 people and caused more than US$1.6 billion dollars of damage.

Sri Lanka had experienced extreme weather before, but decades of ignoring scientific warnings magnified Ditwah’s impact.

For example, the country’s National Building Research Organisation, for years, produced detailed landslide-hazard maps identifying unstable terrain. Yet many of the landslides triggered by the cyclone occurred squarely within long-designated high-risk zones.

“When a mapped hazard zone collapses, it is not just a natural disaster—it is also a governance failure,” says Rohan Cooray, an disaster-risk management specialist.

“The maps are clear. But land approvals and construction often proceed as though these risks do not exist.”

Rohan Cooray

No Hurricanes Strike U.S. Coastline

While a hurricane-free U.S. season is uncommon, it’s not rare. It happens about once every 4-5 years on average. Recent examples include 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2025, thanks to storms often turning away from the coast.

2025 Hurricane season
2025 Named-Storm Tracks

The 2025 season saw no hurricane landfalls on mainland U.S. soil. Many powerful storms formed, but recurved out to sea.

That doesn’t mean the season had no threats. Three Category 5 hurricanes formed, the second-most on record in the Atlantic basin. The only other season that saw more was 2005 with four.

Guadalupe Tragedy

In Texas, by far the worst flooding tragedy this year was on the Guadalupe River in the Hill Country. The July 2025 tragedy on the Guadalupe was caused by:

  • The remnants of an extremely slow moving, moisture-rich storm system (remnants of Tropical Storm Barry) stalling over the region.
  • It dumped more than 20 inches of rain in places onto soil that couldn’t absorb it.
  • Peak rainfall reached 2-3 inches per hour.
  • The massive influx of water where the north and south forks of the Guadalupe converge caused the river to rise 29 feet in 45 minutes near Hunt, TX.

This sent a “pitch black wall of death” rushing through areas like Camp Mystic, causing 27 deaths and disappearances. 

The flood was the deadliest inland flooding event in the United States since the 1976 Big Thompson River flood, surpassing even flooding from Hurricane Helene in 2024.

Kerr County did not have a dedicated flood warning system, despite prior proposals from local officials citing the area’s high flood risk.

The highest death toll occurred at Camp Mystic, a Christian girls’ summer camp. It was in a special flood hazard area. However, following various appeals by the camp, several buildings were removed from the hazard area, as the camp continued to operate and expanded in and around the flood plain.

Camp Mystic flood hazards
Flood zones near Camp Mystic. Cross-hatched = floodway, aqua = 100-year floodplain, brown = 500-year.

States throughout the midwest and Gulf Coast deployed search and rescue teams to assist. Altogether, 137 people died (the count as of September 24, 2025).

The tragedy spurred the 2025 Texas Legislature to pass urgent camp safety reforms, including House Bill 1 and Senate Bill 1 (Heaven’s 27 Act), mandating stricter emergency plans, improved warning systems, and prohibiting cabins in floodplains, signed into law by Governor Abbott to prevent future disasters.

Victim’s families testified that the tragedy was preventable, highlighting failures in planning and complacency regarding flood risk.

Texas Tribune

Top Flood-Related Stories of 2025 Illustrate Lessons of History

Together, these stories illustrate how tragedies happen. They usually come down to a lack of preparation. Best-case scenarios lull people into a false sense of security. So, they aren’t ready for the worst-case when it happens.

We see this over and over again. After the Harvey tragedy, people demanded change to floodplain regulations and building codes and voted to tax themselves billions for flood mitigation. But as years slipped by, our collective sense of urgency waned.

As a result, 65,000 homes have been built in Houston-area floodplains since Harvey. This is how the cycle repeats itself.

But more on that in the next two parts of this series.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/27/25

3042 Days since Hurricane Harvey