Tropical Depression 19 Predicted to Become Tropical Storm or Possibly Hurricane In Gulf Next Week

As of 5PM on Friday afternoon, September 11, Topical Depression 19 had formed off the east coast of Florida and was headed for the Gulf. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Deep convection has developed near or over the likely location of the surface center. The system is overall fairly large in nature with several curved bands.”

TS Watch Already Issued for the SE Florida Coast

The National Hurricane Center has already issued a tropical storm warning for the SE coast of Florida.

Tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be required tomorrow for portions of the central US Gulf Coast.

National Hurricane Center

Track

Tropical Depression 19 is moving toward the WNW around 8mph. This motion should continue for the next 24-48 hours. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, but right now the depression is forecast to approach the central US Gulf coast early next week. It could ravage some of the same areas hit by Hurricane Laura.

Cone of uncertainty for TD19. Remember, the storm has an equal chance of tracking anywhere within the cone. The cone does not indicate the storm’s width.
Tropical storm force wind probabilities for the next 120 hours (3 days). As of 2PM Friday, September 11.

Intensity

According to Linder, “Tropical Depression 19 could already be nearing topical-storm intensity. Conditions ahead of the system look generally favorable for development with light shear, a good moisture envelope, and very warm sea surface temperatures.” He adds that models diverge in their forecasts: some bring the system to a hurricane while many show a stronger tropical storm. NHC brings the system to a 70mph tropical storm. “But it is very possible that a hurricane will be approaching the central US Gulf coast early next week,” says Lindner.

Monitor weather forecasts closely for the next few days.

Posted by Bob Rehak on September 11, 2020

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