Tropical Formation Chances Increase to 40 Percent Over Next 5 Days

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances for tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days to 40%.

Tropical Wave Moving into Gulf

Forecasters expect a tropical wave nearing the southeast Bahamas this morning to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. There, it will find upper level winds more favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

The National Hurricane Center gives the disturbance marked with an orange X a 40% chance of development as it moves toward the Gulf in the next five days.

Several global models now show the formation of at least a tropical storm. “The overall potential appears to be increasing that a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico between Tuesday and Thursday next week and threaten the US Gulf coast,” says Jeff Lindner, chief meteorologist with Harris County Flood Control.

Conditions Favorable for Tropical Development

There is currently no defined surface low pressure system, so it is uncertain where an actual center may form. However, high pressure building over the US east coast this week will likely force the storm to track WNW across the Gulf of Mexico. How fast and how strong this high builds will determine the exact track of the storm. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico look fairly favorable for development so it will need to be watched closely.

Rainfall Chances Increasing

Lindner is not making any changes to the local forecasts at this time since the uncertainty remains high. However, he says, “A wet pattern will be developing today-Monday as a tropical wave south of the Louisiana coast moves into the area. Rainfall amounts over the next 3 days may average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches.”

“Residents along the TX/LA coasts,” says Lindner, “should monitor the progress of the tropical wave over the next 5 days.” He urges residents to check forecasts daily.

Check the National Hurricane Center five-day forecasts directly for constant updates.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/1/18

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