8/2/24 5PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an advisory about Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. It affects people on the west coast of Florida for now. Since yesterday, models have come into closer alignment. There is now a higher degree of certainty that the PTC4 will track up the west coast of Florida, then cut east around Tampa and emerge into the Atlantic.

Current Status and Forecast

Land interaction with Cuba has limited strengthening of the storm today. But by 2PM Saturday, it should emerge into the eastern Gulf and intensify into a tropical storm before making landfall.

Maximum sustained winds are currently at 30 MPH, but will accelerate Saturday and Sunday.

NHC forecasts a 40-50% probability that the Florida’s western coast will see tropical storm force winds (one minute average >= 39MPH). The earliest arrival time on the southern tip of Florida is 8 AM Saturday 8/3/24.

So far, the tropical wave has not yet reached tropical storm force anywhere in the Atlantic or Caribbean. However, tropical storm watches and warnings are up for the entire western coast of Florida.

NOAA’s latest satellite imagery shows the storm centered over Cuba at 21:40 Z on 8/2/24.

Up to a Foot of Rain and 4 Feet of Storm Surge

NHC expects tropical storm conditions to follow the storm up the eastern seaboard through next Wednesday. They also warn of life-threatening storm surge (2-4 feet) and coastal flooding from Georgia to North Carolina next week. Finally, they warn of isolated river flooding.

Expect rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning.

Next Storm Name Is Debby

This storm should become “Debby.” Chris had a short life and veered into northern Mexico as Beryl was moving toward Houston.

For the time being, people in the Houston area can breathe easier. But the Atlantic hurricane season is just starting to heat up. It will peak on September 10.

Where to Find the Latest Information

Those with friends, relatives or vacation plans in the southeast can track the progress of the storm in satellite images at:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php.

For the latest NHC forecasts, visit: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents.

NHC issues updates every 4 hours when a storm threatens.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/2/24 at 5:30 PM

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