Harris County Flood Control District just issued an alert about unsettled weather in the Gulf. Chances of it developing into a subtropical storm system are less than 30% at this time. But nature just issued a wake-up call to get those hurricane kits ready. Here is the exact text of the alert.

A weak low pressure center…likely sub-tropical in nature…may develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week.

Overnight an area of showers and thunderstorms have developed over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the eastern side of a developing upper level trough over the central Gulf. Upper level winds are currently unfavorable for the continued development of any sort of surface circulation given strong wind shear aloft. However as this system drifts NNW over the next few days conditions may become slightly more favorable for the formation of either a surface or mid level center near/under the upper level trough. If this were to happen the system would likely develop some sub-tropical characteristics with most of the wind and rainfall over the eastern flank of the feature. Some of the forecast models have been showing off and on some sort of sub-tropical feature moving inland over the northern US Gulf coast by the middle of next week.

At this time development chances of a sub-tropical storm system over the NE Gulf of Mexico appear less than 30% and the formation of any “true” tropical system is unlikely. Given the current forecast model solutions a dry air mass will likely remain in place over SE TX and surface winds may become more ENE/NE by mid week should some sort of surface feature develop likely resulting in some very warm conditions by the middle of next week.

At this time no impacts are expected across SE TX or the coastal waters from anything sort of sub-tropical develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Lindner, Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist

Harris County Flood Control District

Posted May 12 at 11:15 a.m. CDT

256 Days since Hurricane Harvey