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New Tropical System Has 90% Chance of Developing in Gulf

A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the NW Caribbean Sea. However, at THIS TIME, it poses no threat to southeast Texas.

Could Become Tropical Storm Zeta

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “A slow moving tropical wave over the NW Caribbean Sea is becoming better organized. A tropical system will likely form in the next 24 hours. The system will move generally slowly toward the NW over the next 48 hours and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.”

Conditions currently favor some development, but upper level winds over the Gulf of Mexico may become hostile for additional development by early to mid next week. The overall track is in the general direction of the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 4-5 days. 

Too Early To Predict Landfall

It’s too early to tell where this will make landfall. But NOAA’s satellite images show it definitely becoming better organized.

This shows circulation starting to form. Note the bands of clouds starting to dance around each other.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in a day or two. If it becomes a storm, it would be Zeta.

Most models currently take the storm east of us.

What Climatology Says

This is a reminder that we still have five weeks left in the 2020 hurricane season.

At this time of year, storms are most likely to track toward Florida, but as you can see above, the western Gulf is also a likely target.

Posted by Bob Rehak on October 24, 2020 with thanks to Jeff Lindner and the NHC

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