Below is the official press release from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers about the field work for the sedimentation survey they completed on April 9.
“HOUSTON (April 10, 2018)
“The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District began surveying levels of sediment deposits last weekend within the West Fork of the San Jacinto River in response to a State of Texas and FEMA request.”
“To determine the level of shoaling and silt accumulation within the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, a New Orleans District Corps survey crew and vessel began collecting GPS and sonar data near Humble and Atascocita from Apr. 6-9 along a five-mile area between Hwy 69/59 and West Lake Houston Parkway
“Corps Surveyors operated a 20 foot Xpress Boat with survey grade GPS and a sonar transducer to determine sediment deposition,” said Alicia Rea, an emergency management response official with the Galveston District.
“FEMA responded to a request from the State of Texas and under Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Act of 1988, FEMA directed the Corps to begin the initial assessment of the conditions. Army Corps Hydrologists will utilize the survey data and use hydrologic modeling to determine the best course of action.
“County and City officials conducted a site visit to the locations on April 10, 2018” said Rea.
“We believe this is the most prudent action to take to better define the scope of work,” said Rea. “The USACE and FEMA are working diligently to expedite the process.” (END OF PRESS RELEASE)
Results of Survey Available Soon
Sources tell me (Bob Rehak) that the results of the Army Corps survey may be available as early as next week. This is good news with hurricane season just six weeks away.
However, there is still a lot of work to do before dredging begins. Everyone must agree on specs for the job. Bidders must be identified. A location to store or dispose of the dredged material must be found. Bidders must have time to prepare their bids. An environmental survey must be conducted. They must allow time for a comment period. The bid must be awarded. Crews must be mobilized.
Some steps can happen in parallel but others must happen sequentially. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it could take a month or two before dredging begins – more likely two than one.
We hope that while that work is underway, preliminary work can begin on subsequent legs of the river to further expedite completion of the entire job.
At Least Four Major Blockages on West Fork
Here are four photos from the West Fork that I took shortly after Harvey. They show some of the major blockages between 59 and the lake that we hope the Army Corps addresses. The first two were taken upstream of the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge. The second two were taken downstream. Approximately 70% of the Kingwood homes that flooded were downstream from the bridge.
The new sandbar deposited by Hurricane Harvey now forces water coming out of the drainage ditch in the background on the left to make a 90 degree left hand turn before it can reach the river. This slows the velocity of runoff and backs up water into subdivisions, like the Barrington in the background. While the sandbar looks gentle from the air it is up to 15 feet high near the ditch.
South of the Kingwood Country Club’s Island Course, Hurricane Harvey deposited several feet of sand that is filling in the back channels and expanding the islands of the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, thus reducing its carrying capacity.
Looking north toward Kingwood’s Kings Harbor subdivision, a popular entertainment district that was destroyed by Hurricane Harvey. The West Lake Houston Parkway bridge is on the left. In the foreground, sand now reaches the tree tops and is virtually as high as the bridge itself. Water used to flow under the bridge and through the area in the foreground during floods. Now it is forced north.
A giant sand dune has formed near where the east and west forks of the San Jacinto join, inhibiting the flow of the river. Engineers say that sediment is not being carried out into Lake Houston (background) as expected. Areas beyond these dunes experienced far less flood damage from Harvey than the areas behind them. That’s the FM1960 Bridge in the background.
By Diane Cooper, Kingwood resident with 20+ years’ experience in weather and river forecasting for the National Weather Service
Colorado State University (CSU) released its initial 2018 Hurricane Outlook on April 5. It indicates an Above Normal Hurricane Season.
They predict:
14 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes
The average number of tropical storms per year from 1981-2010:
12 named storms
6 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes
Outlooks: Between Historical Averages and Near-Term Forecasts
Note: CSU outlooks are not near-term forecasts. Neither are they historical averages; that’s climate. Outlooks describe the probability of how any one season will likely vary from the average. To do that, scientists track numerous oscillations in the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Historically, the high and low points of these oscillations have correlated highly with the presence or absence of hurricane formation. (For details about the Colorado State University Outlook, see their technical paper.
Key Factors Considered in This Hurricane Outlook
CSU indicates that Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were key factors in formulating their early 2018 outlook.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast the “ENSO phase.” (ENSO refers to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.)
Both groups predict that the current weak La Niña will transition to an ENSO-neutral phase during this spring or early summer. However, they do not anticipate a significant El Niño for this summer or fall. (Note: ENSO models tend to be more accurate from June to December than from February to May. So, a March outlook contains more uncertainty.) For more information about the ENSO forecasts, see the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO Forecast.
Neutral Conditions in Pacific Favor Hurricane Development in Atlantic
El Niño conditions in the Pacific (above-average SSTs that are tracked over a 3-month period) typically increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic. That reduces the chances of hurricanes fully organizing and strengthening, however we can still experience tropical systems and hurricanes with El Niño conditions.
Neutral ENSO conditions, on the other hand, allow for normal wind shear patterns over the areas in the Atlantic Ocean where tropical development tends to occur. Decreased wind shear provides a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricane development.
Atlantic Sea Temps Now Vary, Causing Uncertainty
Currently, the western tropical Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are cool. Thus, forecasters have difficulty predicting how warm waters will become during the peak Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through November 30th, but the peak is mid-August through mid-October.
The main area where forecasters study Atlantic SSTs is called the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR includes the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 9.5°N and 21.5°N latitude.
Sustained wind speeds determine the classification of a tropical system.
Tropical Depression – 38 mph or less
Tropical Storm – 39 mph to 73 mph.
Hurricane – 74 mph and higher.
Major Hurricane – 111 mph and higher. These are Category 3, 4 or 5 storms that have significant impacts, especially if the center of the storm comes ashore.
Serious damage can occur in any storm. However, a slightly above normal outlook increases the odds that a tropical system will reach the U.S. coast. That’s simply because we expect to have more storms. More storms increase chances that one will come ashore near us.
Be Prepared, Not Sorry
Despite the outlook for an above normal season, the U.S. and Texas may see no direct hit from a tropical system. Outlooks say nothing about where topical systems will make landfall.
However, multiple storms could strike the Texas coast, as they did in 2008, when the CSU team predicted a “well above average” hurricane season. Texas took four direct hits between July 23 and September 8. The eye of Hurricane Ike passed right over Kingwood, knocking out power for approximately two weeks. Ike was one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit Texas and one of the deadliest. It caused $19.3 billion in damages and killed 84 people.
Typical Hurricane Ike wind damage in Kingwood, TX, in 2008. Ike moved quickly and caused more wind than water damage in Kingwood. The opposite was true near the coast where a 22-foot storm surge wiped out thousands of homes on the Bolivar Peninsula.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st, so start preparing now. In my next post, I’ll talk about how to prepare for a hurricane.
In the meantime, also remember that it does not take a tropical system to produce significant rainfall in southeast Texas. The 2015 Memorial Day flood and the 2016 Tax Day Floods are recent examples of 500+ year floods not connected to a tropical system. We should always be prepared for potential flooding in this area.
Posted April 10, 2018, 224 Days after Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-04-10 08:06:282018-04-10 08:13:42Forecasters Predict a Slightly Above Average Hurricane Season for 2018
Please mark your calendars. Attend the next meeting of the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative from 6:30 to 8:00 p.m., April 17 at the Kingwood Community Center.
Featured Speaker: SJRA Board Member Kaaren Cambio
Kaaren Cambio, one of Kingwood’s two new representatives on the San Jacinto River Authority Board, will update residents on the SJRA’s new role in flood prevention. Additionally, she will update us on many significant flood prevention developments since the group’s last meeting.
About the Lake Houston Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative
The Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative consists of local residents dedicated to preventing future flooding in the Lake Houston Area. The Group aims to provide a voice for the concerns of residents. It also seeks to identify flood risks and their solutions, and to work closely with local, state and federal officials in addressing them.
All residents – flooded or not – are welcome to attend. The issues we seek to address affect the safety and economic vitality of the entire community.
Key goals of the Group include:
Installing additional flood gates at Lake Houston to increase release capacity
Dredging the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River and Lake Houston
Controlling sand mining activities on both forks of the San Jacinto River to reduce sand build up
Ensuring any bond proposed by the Harris County Commissioners includes dredging of the West and East forks of the San Jacinto River
Changing priorities and procedures of the San Jacinto River Authority to protect residents downstream from Lake Conroe
Supporting our elected representatives by maintaining awareness and involvement.
Join the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative
To join the group’s distribution list, please email Bill Fowler at txwil43@yahoo.com. Also, please feel free to email questions or comments directly to Bill or through this website.
On a final note, this website will be a repository for information related to the group’s efforts to prevent future flooding. Please bookmark the site and visit it regularly to get the most up-to-date news on flood prevention developments.
Posted April 7, 2018, 221 Days since Hurricane Harvey.
00adminadmin2018-04-07 15:44:422018-04-07 15:58:46Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative Announces Cambio to Speak At Next Meeting
Army Corps Finishes Sedimentation Survey Field Work on First Leg of West Fork
Below is the official press release from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers about the field work for the sedimentation survey they completed on April 9.
“HOUSTON (April 10, 2018)
“The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Galveston District began surveying levels of sediment deposits last weekend within the West Fork of the San Jacinto River in response to a State of Texas and FEMA request.”
“To determine the level of shoaling and silt accumulation within the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, a New Orleans District Corps survey crew and vessel began collecting GPS and sonar data near Humble and Atascocita from Apr. 6-9 along a five-mile area between Hwy 69/59 and West Lake Houston Parkway
“Corps Surveyors operated a 20 foot Xpress Boat with survey grade GPS and a sonar transducer to determine sediment deposition,” said Alicia Rea, an emergency management response official with the Galveston District.
“FEMA responded to a request from the State of Texas and under Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Act of 1988, FEMA directed the Corps to begin the initial assessment of the conditions. Army Corps Hydrologists will utilize the survey data and use hydrologic modeling to determine the best course of action.
“County and City officials conducted a site visit to the locations on April 10, 2018” said Rea.
“We believe this is the most prudent action to take to better define the scope of work,” said Rea. “The USACE and FEMA are working diligently to expedite the process.” (END OF PRESS RELEASE)
Results of Survey Available Soon
Sources tell me (Bob Rehak) that the results of the Army Corps survey may be available as early as next week. This is good news with hurricane season just six weeks away.
However, there is still a lot of work to do before dredging begins. Everyone must agree on specs for the job. Bidders must be identified. A location to store or dispose of the dredged material must be found. Bidders must have time to prepare their bids. An environmental survey must be conducted. They must allow time for a comment period. The bid must be awarded. Crews must be mobilized.
Some steps can happen in parallel but others must happen sequentially. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it could take a month or two before dredging begins – more likely two than one.
We hope that while that work is underway, preliminary work can begin on subsequent legs of the river to further expedite completion of the entire job.
At Least Four Major Blockages on West Fork
Here are four photos from the West Fork that I took shortly after Harvey. They show some of the major blockages between 59 and the lake that we hope the Army Corps addresses. The first two were taken upstream of the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge. The second two were taken downstream. Approximately 70% of the Kingwood homes that flooded were downstream from the bridge.
The new sandbar deposited by Hurricane Harvey now forces water coming out of the drainage ditch in the background on the left to make a 90 degree left hand turn before it can reach the river. This slows the velocity of runoff and backs up water into subdivisions, like the Barrington in the background. While the sandbar looks gentle from the air it is up to 15 feet high near the ditch.
South of the Kingwood Country Club’s Island Course, Hurricane Harvey deposited several feet of sand that is filling in the back channels and expanding the islands of the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, thus reducing its carrying capacity.
Looking north toward Kingwood’s Kings Harbor subdivision, a popular entertainment district that was destroyed by Hurricane Harvey. The West Lake Houston Parkway bridge is on the left. In the foreground, sand now reaches the tree tops and is virtually as high as the bridge itself. Water used to flow under the bridge and through the area in the foreground during floods. Now it is forced north.
A giant sand dune has formed near where the east and west forks of the San Jacinto join, inhibiting the flow of the river. Engineers say that sediment is not being carried out into Lake Houston (background) as expected. Areas beyond these dunes experienced far less flood damage from Harvey than the areas behind them. That’s the FM1960 Bridge in the background.
Here is link to an Army Corps Facebook post about the project that shows 20+ additional pictures of the survey crew at work on the west fork.
By Bob Rehak
Posted April 11, 2018, 225 days since Hurricane Harvey.
Forecasters Predict a Slightly Above Average Hurricane Season for 2018
By Diane Cooper, Kingwood resident with 20+ years’ experience in weather and river forecasting for the National Weather Service
Colorado State University (CSU) released its initial 2018 Hurricane Outlook on April 5. It indicates an Above Normal Hurricane Season.
They predict:
The average number of tropical storms per year from 1981-2010:
Outlooks: Between Historical Averages and Near-Term Forecasts
Note: CSU outlooks are not near-term forecasts. Neither are they historical averages; that’s climate. Outlooks describe the probability of how any one season will likely vary from the average. To do that, scientists track numerous oscillations in the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Historically, the high and low points of these oscillations have correlated highly with the presence or absence of hurricane formation. (For details about the Colorado State University Outlook, see their technical paper.
Key Factors Considered in This Hurricane Outlook
CSU indicates that Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were key factors in formulating their early 2018 outlook.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast the “ENSO phase.” (ENSO refers to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.)
Both groups predict that the current weak La Niña will transition to an ENSO-neutral phase during this spring or early summer. However, they do not anticipate a significant El Niño for this summer or fall. (Note: ENSO models tend to be more accurate from June to December than from February to May. So, a March outlook contains more uncertainty.) For more information about the ENSO forecasts, see the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO Forecast.
Neutral Conditions in Pacific Favor Hurricane Development in Atlantic
El Niño conditions in the Pacific (above-average SSTs that are tracked over a 3-month period) typically increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic. That reduces the chances of hurricanes fully organizing and strengthening, however we can still experience tropical systems and hurricanes with El Niño conditions.
Neutral ENSO conditions, on the other hand, allow for normal wind shear patterns over the areas in the Atlantic Ocean where tropical development tends to occur. Decreased wind shear provides a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricane development.
Atlantic Sea Temps Now Vary, Causing Uncertainty
Currently, the western tropical Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are cool. Thus, forecasters have difficulty predicting how warm waters will become during the peak Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through November 30th, but the peak is mid-August through mid-October.
The main area where forecasters study Atlantic SSTs is called the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR includes the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 9.5°N and 21.5°N latitude.
For more information about factors influencing hurricane outlooks and ENSO states, see What Influences the Long-Range Weather Outlooks.
Difference Between Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
Sustained wind speeds determine the classification of a tropical system.
This video shows types of damage to expect as wind speeds increase.
Why Hurricane Outlooks Matter
Serious damage can occur in any storm. However, a slightly above normal outlook increases the odds that a tropical system will reach the U.S. coast. That’s simply because we expect to have more storms. More storms increase chances that one will come ashore near us.
Be Prepared, Not Sorry
Despite the outlook for an above normal season, the U.S. and Texas may see no direct hit from a tropical system. Outlooks say nothing about where topical systems will make landfall.
However, multiple storms could strike the Texas coast, as they did in 2008, when the CSU team predicted a “well above average” hurricane season. Texas took four direct hits between July 23 and September 8. The eye of Hurricane Ike passed right over Kingwood, knocking out power for approximately two weeks. Ike was one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit Texas and one of the deadliest. It caused $19.3 billion in damages and killed 84 people.
Typical Hurricane Ike wind damage in Kingwood, TX, in 2008. Ike moved quickly and caused more wind than water damage in Kingwood. The opposite was true near the coast where a 22-foot storm surge wiped out thousands of homes on the Bolivar Peninsula.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st, so start preparing now. In my next post, I’ll talk about how to prepare for a hurricane.
In the meantime, also remember that it does not take a tropical system to produce significant rainfall in southeast Texas. The 2015 Memorial Day flood and the 2016 Tax Day Floods are recent examples of 500+ year floods not connected to a tropical system. We should always be prepared for potential flooding in this area.
Posted April 10, 2018, 224 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative Announces Cambio to Speak At Next Meeting
Please mark your calendars. Attend the next meeting of the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative from 6:30 to 8:00 p.m., April 17 at the Kingwood Community Center.
Featured Speaker: SJRA Board Member Kaaren Cambio
Kaaren Cambio, one of Kingwood’s two new representatives on the San Jacinto River Authority Board, will update residents on the SJRA’s new role in flood prevention. Additionally, she will update us on many significant flood prevention developments since the group’s last meeting.
About the Lake Houston Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative
The Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative consists of local residents dedicated to preventing future flooding in the Lake Houston Area. The Group aims to provide a voice for the concerns of residents. It also seeks to identify flood risks and their solutions, and to work closely with local, state and federal officials in addressing them.
All residents – flooded or not – are welcome to attend. The issues we seek to address affect the safety and economic vitality of the entire community.
Key goals of the Group include:
Join the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative
To join the group’s distribution list, please email Bill Fowler at txwil43@yahoo.com. Also, please feel free to email questions or comments directly to Bill or through this website.
On a final note, this website will be a repository for information related to the group’s efforts to prevent future flooding. Please bookmark the site and visit it regularly to get the most up-to-date news on flood prevention developments.
Posted April 7, 2018, 221 Days since Hurricane Harvey.