For decades, weather services have forecasted flood warnings, watches and alerts for general areas, such as the Houston region. But what is the risk to your particular neighborhood? Web-based, interactive tools now make it possible to forecast flood risk near you. However, they require some “do-it-yourself” interpretation. Hence, this post.
YESTERDAY morning (TUESDAY 6/19), I woke up and saw standing water in my backyard. The sky was black. I heard thunder. I remembered the forecast from Monday night about storms training across the area. My heart started racing as I fired up my laptop.
Here is what I did. (NOTE: TODAY’S RAINFALL IS DIFFERENT; THE INFORMATION BELOW IS AN EXAMPLE ONLY TO ILLUSTRATE A PROCEDURE.)
I first went to Space City Weather to get a good feeling for the big picture and learn of any National Weather Service warnings or Harris County Flood Control District insights; it’s always a good idea to consult the professionals first. The threat appeared both east and west of Lake Houston; it seemed as though we might have threaded the needle with this storm. However, forecasters felt the storm over Beaumont at the time might move west during the day.
Houston threaded the needle overnight and avoided the major parts of the storm.
So next, I wanted to see how much capacity the San Jacinto river and Lake Houston had. To figure that out, I went to USGS to find the level of Lake Houston. The spillway is at 42.5 feet shown at the top of this graph. The blue line represents the actual water level.
USGS showed that Lake Houston was still well below the spillway at 42.5 feet, even though it had risen 3 or 4 inches overnight.
You can see from the widening gap between those two lines how the city lowered the lake to create extra capacity before the storm. However, you can also see how the blue line started to turn up at the far right.
Next, I wanted to see if a huge upstream rainfall was rushing toward Lake Houston. So I went to the SJRA site to check the level of Lake Conroe. I determined that the threat from the west was minimal. Lake Conroe was also below its normal level.
On Tuesday, Lake Conroe was about .4 feet below its normal level.
The lake level had only risen a few hundredths of an inch since the day before.
Next, I followed another link on the SJRA website to the Lake Operations and Rainfall Dashboard. It is located right below the information in #3 above. Montgomery County gages showed that not much rain had fallen to our north and west. Only one of 14 gages showed more than an inch of rain. Most showed less than a half inch. At this point, I felt that the threat was more in the future than the present.
Only one of 14 SJRA gages showed more than an inch of rain.
To see what was happening with that two inches that fell on Lake Creek, I went to the Harris County Flood Warning System. I could see from the home page that the gage at US59 had received 1.36 inches of rain and the one at West Lake Houston Parkway 1.44 inches. Not a huge threat! But rainfall doesn’t correlate perfectly with flood levels.
From the Harris County Flood Warning System home page, I was able to quickly locate the gages for the US59 and West Lake Houston Parkway bridges over the San Jacinto River.
I still needed to see how much the San Jacinto was below its banks. So I clicked on the gage at West Lake Houston Parkway for more information. That’s the gage nearest me. The link took me to a page that showed a breakdown of rainfall at that location. Right next to it was a tab called Stream Elevation. In the graph, I could see that the river was near 41 one feet. The banks were six feet higher! Better, there was no sharp rise in the river level. I let out a big “Whew!”
Difference between top of banks and water level
All of this took about 5 minutes. I could have waited for a weather report on TV or checked the weather app on my iPhone. However, they would have only told me what was happening in the region, but not at my exact location. Try it for yourself the next time you have a pitter patter panic.
Had the river been coming out of its banks, I could have accessed the new, near-real-time, inundation mapping system on the Harris County Flood Warning System home page. It is updated every 15 minutes. The map allows you to zoom into your neighborhood and see where flood waters are predicted to go based on the Flood Control District’s models and the river’s height.
The lengthy delays crossing the San Jacinto River on Interstate Highway 69 at rush hour are almost over. TxDOT originally expected repairs could take until September, but is now saying traffic will return to normal by early July.
Only a month ago, finishing repairs to IH-69 before September seemed like a distant dream. Now TxDOT is saying it will restore normal traffic sooner than expected.
That’s the good news. However, between now and then, the concrete spaghetti bowl over the river will become even more tangled as crews work on one lane after another to restore normal traffic flow. So make note of the following. Here’s the latest:
Motorists should expect traffic delays and are strongly encouraged to seek alternate routes.
All closures are subject to cancellation or modification due to adverse weather.
Summary of What will Open When
The southbound mainlanes will be returned to their original condition by 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25, 2018.
The southbound entrance ramp from Kingwood Dr. will be reopened by 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25, 2018.
The southbound exit ramp to FM 1960 will be reopened by 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25, 2018:
The northbound mainlanes will be returned to their original condition by 5:00 AM on Monday, July 02, 2018.
The Eastex HOV/Express Lanes between Kingwood Dr. and the Townsen Park & Ride will be returned to the original condition by 4:00 AM on Monday July 02, 2018.
The northbound entrance ramp from FM 1960/Townsen will be reopened by 5:00 AM on Tuesday, July 03, 2018.
Below, read how TxDOT will meet those deadlines.
Ongoing Traffic Closures at this Time
I-69 Eastex northbound entrance ramp from FM 1960/Townsen:Total closure continuously through 5:00 AM on Tuesday, July 03, 2018. Detour northbound on the frontage road to the entrance ramp from Sorters McClellan Rd.
I-69 Eastex northbound mainlanes between FM 1960 to Kingwood Dr.:Two left lanes closed continuously through 9:00 PM on Friday, June 29, 2018. Three mainlanes will remain open. Please refer to closure #9 below for closure details for the weekend of June 29 th thru July 2nd.
I-69 Eastex southbound entrance ramp from Kingwood Dr.:Total closure continuously through 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25, 2018. Detour southbound on the frontage road to the entrance ramp from Townsen Blvd.
I-69 Eastex southbound frontage road between Kingwood Dr. and Sorters McClellan Rd.: One Left lane closed continuously through 5:00 AM on Friday, June 29, 2018.Please refer to closure #12 below for closure details for the week of June 25 th thru June 29 th.
I-69 Eastex southbound mainlanes between Kingwood Dr. and FM 1960:Two Right lanes closed continuously through 9:00 PM on Friday, June 22. Three mainlanes will remain open. Please refer to closure #6 below for closure details for the weekend of June 22 th thru June 25 th.
I-69 Eastex southbound exit ramp to FM 1960:Total closure continuously through 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25, 2018. Detour southbound on the mainlanes to the exit ramp to Sorters McClellan Rd./Townsen/FM 1960. Follow the Southbound Frontage Rd. to Sorters McClellan Rd., Townsen or FM 1960.
I-69 Eastex HOV/Express Lanes between Kingwood Dr. and the Townsen Park & Ride: Total closure continuously through 4:00 AM on Monday July 02, 2018. Southbound Detour via the entrance from the Townsen Park and Ride. Northbound Detour via the exit at the Townsen Park and Ride.
Closures to restore Southbound Mainlanes
I-69 Eastex southbound mainlanes between Northpark Dr. and FM 1960:One right lane closed nightly from 9:00 PM to 5:00 AM on Monday June 18, Tuesday June 19, Wednesday June 20 and Thursday June 21.
I-69 Eastex southbound frontage road between Kingwood Dr. and Sorters McClellan Rd.: One Left lane closed nightly from 7:00 PM to 5:00 AM on Monday June 18, Tuesday June 19, Wednesday June 20 and Thursday June 21.
I-69 Eastex southbound entrance ramp from Sorters McClellan Rd.:Total closure nightly between 7:00 PM and 5:00 AM on Monday June 18, Tuesday June 19, Wednesday June 20 and Thursday June 21. Detour southbound on the frontage road to the entrance ramp from Townsen Blvd.
I-69 Eastex southbound exit ramp to Sorters McClellan Rd./Townsen/FM 1960:Total closure continuously between 9:00 PM on Friday June 22 and 6:00 PM on Saturday June 23. Detour southbound on the mainlanes to the exit ramp to Will Clayton. Follow the Frontage Rd to the U-turn at Will Clayton; Follow the U-Turn at Will Clayton to the northbound frontage road. Follow the northbound frontage rd. to FM 1960, Townsen or Sorters McClellan Rd. An alternate detour is to exit at Kingwood Dr. and follow the southbound frontage rd. to Sorters McClellan Rd., Townsen and FM 1960.
I-69 Eastex southbound entrance ramp from Sorters McClellan Rd.:Total closure continuously between 9:00 PM on Friday, June 22 and 6:00 PM on Saturday, June 23. Detour southbound on the frontage road to the entrance ramp from Townsen Blvd.
I-69 Eastex southbound mainlanes between FM 1314 and FM 1960:Multiple alternatelanes closed continuously from 9:00 PM on Friday, June 22 through 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25. At least one mainlane will remain open.
I-69 Eastex southbound mainlanes between Townsen and FM 1960: Left, (Inside), shoulder closed between 5:00 AM on Monday June 25 and 5:00 AM on Tuesday July 03.
Closures to Restore Northbound Mainlanes
I-69 Eastex northbound mainlanes between FM 1960 to Kingwood Dr.:One additional Left lane closed nightly from 9:00 PM to 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25, Tuesday June 26, Wednesday June 27 and Thursday June 28.At least two mainlanes will remain open.
I-69 Eastex northbound mainlanes between FM 1960 to Kingwood Dr.:Four alternate lanes closed continuously from 9:00 PM on Friday, June 29, through 5:00 AM on Monday, July 02. At least one mainlane will remain open.
I-69 Eastex northbound exit ramp to Loop 494/ Sorters McClellan Rd: Total closure continuously from 9:00 PM on Friday, June 29, through 5:00 AM on Monday, July 02. Detour via the northbound mainlanes to the exit ramp to Northpark Dr.; U-Turn at Northpark Dr. and then follow the southbound frontage road to either Kingwood Dr. or Sorters McClellan Rd.
I-69 Eastex northbound exit ramp to Kingwood Drive:Total closurecontinuously between 9:00 PM on Friday, June 29, through 5:00 AM on Monday, July 02. Detour via the northbound mainlanes to the exit ramp to Northpark Dr.; U-Turn at Northpark Dr. and then follow the southbound frontage road to either Kingwood Dr. or Sorters McClellan Rd.
Traffic Closures to Restore Frontage Roads
I-69 Eastex southbound frontage road between Kingwood Dr. and Sorters McClellan Rd.: Alternate Left lanes closed nightly from 9:00 PM to 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25, Tuesday June 26 and Wednesday June 27 and Thursday June 28.
I-69 Eastex northbound frontage road between FM 1960 and Sorters McClellan Rd.: Two Left lanes closed nightly from 9:00 PM to 5:00 AM on Monday, July 02, and Tuesday July 03.
Miscellaneous Traffic Closures for Clean Up and Demobilization
I-69 Eastex Turnaround Road from W Hamblen Rd to Hamblen Rd: Total closurecontinuously through 7:00 PM on Tuesday, July 03. Detour from Hamblin Rd: Northbound on Loop 494 to Kingwood Dr.; Detour from McClellan Rd: Southbound on the Southbound Frontage Rd. to FM 1960.
I-69 Eastex Turnaround Road from W Hamblen Rd to Hamblen Rd: Total closure daily between 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM between Thursday July 05 and Friday July 13. Detour from Hamblin Rd: Northbound on Loop 494 to Kingwood Dr.; Detour from McClellan Rd: Southbound on the Southbound Frontage Rd. to FM 1960.
Posted 6/19/2018 by Bob Rehak with thanks to Mark Mitchell for the information!
294 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-06-19 14:23:302018-06-19 16:46:18IH-69 Repairs Finish Sooner than Expected; Traffic Returning to Normal Soon
The Lake Conroe Association, which fought the temporary lowering of Lake Conroe, may find that it’s a blessing in disguise.
The TCEQ decided to allow the San Jacinto River Authority and City of Houston to lower Lake Conroe for six weeks by up to two feet during the peak of hurricane season. The SJRA will lower the lake to 199 feet if evaporation does not already reduce it that much.
Lowering Lake Could Facilitate Repairs, Help Fight Invasive Species
This should reduce the risk of flooding for people on both sides of the dam between August 15 and September 30. It could also give lakefront property owners an opportunity to repair shallow docks, retaining walls and other waterfront property.
Image of hydrilla, an invasive species, courtesy of USGS.
The Lower Colorado River Authority also urged their residents to use the 2017 drawdown as an opportunity to curb the growth of nuisance aquatic vegetation, such as hydrilla and Eurasian watermilfoil.
The Lake Conroe Association may find that lowering Lake Conroe helps in its fight against invasive aquatic vegetation. Battling hydrilla has been one of the group’s top priorities for more than forty years.
Opening of Dredging Bids Expected Later Today
Temporarily lowering Lake Conroe will provide a buffer against flooding for downstream residents who are currently fighting excessive sedimentation left behind by Hurricane Harvey. The sediment is blocking drainage ditches and exacerbating flooding.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is expected to open bids today on its Emergency West Fork Dredging Project. The Corps has postponed the bid opening twice already to give bidders more time to resolve questions relating to the complex project. The earlier dates were May 31 and June 12. I will let you know as soon as I hear something. Once approved, the project is projected to take approximately six months to complete.
Update on Tropical Wave as of 6 a.m., 6/18/18
As of this morning, the level of Lake Conroe is at 200.59 feet. The level of the San Jacinto river at US59 is currently close to 41 feet, which is about 1.5 below normal, thanks to the City of Houston’s decision to lower the level of Lake Houston in advance of the approaching storm.
Height of San Jacinto River at US 59 according to USGS stream gage data.
However, with the tropical wave expected to stream moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico most of this week, both of those levels should increase.
The morning weather report from Space City Weather indicate that counties in the northern part of the Houston region could see rainfall accumulations from 1.2 to 2.4 inches today. The five day outlook calls for higher accumulations. However, Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control says, “Thus far bands/waves of showers … have not trained over one particular area long enough to cause any problems.”
Currently, Main Risk is From Street Flooding
“Overall the current forecasted amounts of rainfall are likely to be handled by the creeks and bayous over the area as long as the rainfall continues to exhibit enough breaks allowing systems to drain. Grounds will slowly saturate as the rainfall totals add up leading to greater amounts of run-off as the event continues. While rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible, the main threat will be street flooding especially in any areas of intense rainfall,” says Lindner.
He indicates, though, that the risk of flash flooding has increased to “moderate” for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Downstream Residents Grateful
Residents that I talk to downstream of the Lake Conroe Dam are grateful for the decision to lower Lake Conroe temporarily. Many are still traumatized by Hurricane Harvey and repairing their homes from the flood it caused. They appreciate Lake Conroe residents who supported the lowering. While it may be a short-term inconvenience, it will give the Corps time to clear the river. Hopefully, it will also give residents of Lake Conroe time to repair their docks and renew their fight against invasive plant species.
Posted on June 18, 2018
293 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-06-18 08:08:562020-01-17 10:04:49Lowering Lake Conroe Temporarily Could Be Blessing in Disguise for Lakefront Property Owners
A Quick Way to Assess Flood Risk In Your Neighborhood During Storms
For decades, weather services have forecasted flood warnings, watches and alerts for general areas, such as the Houston region. But what is the risk to your particular neighborhood? Web-based, interactive tools now make it possible to forecast flood risk near you. However, they require some “do-it-yourself” interpretation. Hence, this post.
YESTERDAY morning (TUESDAY 6/19), I woke up and saw standing water in my backyard. The sky was black. I heard thunder. I remembered the forecast from Monday night about storms training across the area. My heart started racing as I fired up my laptop.
Here is what I did. (NOTE: TODAY’S RAINFALL IS DIFFERENT; THE INFORMATION BELOW IS AN EXAMPLE ONLY TO ILLUSTRATE A PROCEDURE.)
Houston threaded the needle overnight and avoided the major parts of the storm.
USGS showed that Lake Houston was still well below the spillway at 42.5 feet, even though it had risen 3 or 4 inches overnight.
You can see from the widening gap between those two lines how the city lowered the lake to create extra capacity before the storm. However, you can also see how the blue line started to turn up at the far right.
On Tuesday, Lake Conroe was about .4 feet below its normal level.
The lake level had only risen a few hundredths of an inch since the day before.
Only one of 14 SJRA gages showed more than an inch of rain.
From the Harris County Flood Warning System home page, I was able to quickly locate the gages for the US59 and West Lake Houston Parkway bridges over the San Jacinto River.
Difference between top of banks and water level
All of this took about 5 minutes. I could have waited for a weather report on TV or checked the weather app on my iPhone. However, they would have only told me what was happening in the region, but not at my exact location. Try it for yourself the next time you have a pitter patter panic.
Had the river been coming out of its banks, I could have accessed the new, near-real-time, inundation mapping system on the Harris County Flood Warning System home page. It is updated every 15 minutes. The map allows you to zoom into your neighborhood and see where flood waters are predicted to go based on the Flood Control District’s models and the river’s height.
Diane Cooper, a Kingwood resident who has 20+ years of forecasting experience with the National Weather Service, also suggested this shortcut. It lets you look at upstream and downstream rainfall over the entire region all at once. My thanks to Diane.
Posted 6/20/2018 by Bob Rehak
295 Days Since Hurricane Harvey
IH-69 Repairs Finish Sooner than Expected; Traffic Returning to Normal Soon
The lengthy delays crossing the San Jacinto River on Interstate Highway 69 at rush hour are almost over. TxDOT originally expected repairs could take until September, but is now saying traffic will return to normal by early July.
Only a month ago, finishing repairs to IH-69 before September seemed like a distant dream. Now TxDOT is saying it will restore normal traffic sooner than expected.
That’s the good news. However, between now and then, the concrete spaghetti bowl over the river will become even more tangled as crews work on one lane after another to restore normal traffic flow. So make note of the following. Here’s the latest:
Motorists should expect traffic delays and are strongly encouraged to seek alternate routes.
All closures are subject to cancellation or modification due to adverse weather.
Summary of What will Open When
Below, read how TxDOT will meet those deadlines.
Ongoing Traffic Closures at this Time
I-69 Eastex northbound entrance ramp from FM 1960/Townsen: Total closure continuously through 5:00 AM on Tuesday, July 03, 2018. Detour northbound on the frontage road to the entrance ramp from Sorters McClellan Rd.
I-69 Eastex northbound mainlanes between FM 1960 to Kingwood Dr.: Two left lanes closed continuously through 9:00 PM on Friday, June 29, 2018. Three mainlanes will remain open. Please refer to closure #9 below for closure details for the weekend of June 29 th thru July 2nd.
I-69 Eastex southbound entrance ramp from Kingwood Dr.: Total closure continuously through 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25, 2018. Detour southbound on the frontage road to the entrance ramp from Townsen Blvd.
I-69 Eastex southbound frontage road between Kingwood Dr. and Sorters McClellan Rd.: One Left lane closed continuously through 5:00 AM on Friday, June 29, 2018. Please refer to closure #12 below for closure details for the week of June 25 th thru June 29 th.
I-69 Eastex southbound mainlanes between Kingwood Dr. and FM 1960: Two Right lanes closed continuously through 9:00 PM on Friday, June 22. Three mainlanes will remain open. Please refer to closure #6 below for closure details for the weekend of June 22 th thru June 25 th.
I-69 Eastex southbound exit ramp to FM 1960: Total closure continuously through 5:00 AM on Monday, June 25, 2018. Detour southbound on the mainlanes to the exit ramp to Sorters McClellan Rd./Townsen/FM 1960. Follow the Southbound Frontage Rd. to Sorters McClellan Rd., Townsen or FM 1960.
I-69 Eastex HOV/Express Lanes between Kingwood Dr. and the Townsen Park & Ride: Total closure continuously through 4:00 AM on Monday July 02, 2018. Southbound Detour via the entrance from the Townsen Park and Ride. Northbound Detour via the exit at the Townsen Park and Ride.
Closures to restore Southbound Mainlanes
Closures to Restore Northbound Mainlanes
Traffic Closures to Restore Frontage Roads
Miscellaneous Traffic Closures for Clean Up and Demobilization
Posted 6/19/2018 by Bob Rehak with thanks to Mark Mitchell for the information!
294 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Lowering Lake Conroe Temporarily Could Be Blessing in Disguise for Lakefront Property Owners
The Lake Conroe Association, which fought the temporary lowering of Lake Conroe, may find that it’s a blessing in disguise.
The TCEQ decided to allow the San Jacinto River Authority and City of Houston to lower Lake Conroe for six weeks by up to two feet during the peak of hurricane season. The SJRA will lower the lake to 199 feet if evaporation does not already reduce it that much.
Lowering Lake Could Facilitate Repairs, Help Fight Invasive Species
This should reduce the risk of flooding for people on both sides of the dam between August 15 and September 30. It could also give lakefront property owners an opportunity to repair shallow docks, retaining walls and other waterfront property.
That’s what the property owners on Lakes LBJ and Austin did for six weeks while the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) lowered those lakes in 2017 to facilitate dam repairs.
Image of hydrilla, an invasive species, courtesy of USGS.
The Lower Colorado River Authority also urged their residents to use the 2017 drawdown as an opportunity to curb the growth of nuisance aquatic vegetation, such as hydrilla and Eurasian watermilfoil.
The Lake Conroe Association may find that lowering Lake Conroe helps in its fight against invasive aquatic vegetation. Battling hydrilla has been one of the group’s top priorities for more than forty years.
Opening of Dredging Bids Expected Later Today
Temporarily lowering Lake Conroe will provide a buffer against flooding for downstream residents who are currently fighting excessive sedimentation left behind by Hurricane Harvey. The sediment is blocking drainage ditches and exacerbating flooding.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is expected to open bids today on its Emergency West Fork Dredging Project. The Corps has postponed the bid opening twice already to give bidders more time to resolve questions relating to the complex project. The earlier dates were May 31 and June 12. I will let you know as soon as I hear something. Once approved, the project is projected to take approximately six months to complete.
Update on Tropical Wave as of 6 a.m., 6/18/18
As of this morning, the level of Lake Conroe is at 200.59 feet. The level of the San Jacinto river at US59 is currently close to 41 feet, which is about 1.5 below normal, thanks to the City of Houston’s decision to lower the level of Lake Houston in advance of the approaching storm.
Height of San Jacinto River at US 59 according to USGS stream gage data.
However, with the tropical wave expected to stream moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico most of this week, both of those levels should increase.
The morning weather report from Space City Weather indicate that counties in the northern part of the Houston region could see rainfall accumulations from 1.2 to 2.4 inches today. The five day outlook calls for higher accumulations. However, Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control says, “Thus far bands/waves of showers … have not trained over one particular area long enough to cause any problems.”
Currently, Main Risk is From Street Flooding
“Overall the current forecasted amounts of rainfall are likely to be handled by the creeks and bayous over the area as long as the rainfall continues to exhibit enough breaks allowing systems to drain. Grounds will slowly saturate as the rainfall totals add up leading to greater amounts of run-off as the event continues. While rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible, the main threat will be street flooding especially in any areas of intense rainfall,” says Lindner.
He indicates, though, that the risk of flash flooding has increased to “moderate” for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Downstream Residents Grateful
Residents that I talk to downstream of the Lake Conroe Dam are grateful for the decision to lower Lake Conroe temporarily. Many are still traumatized by Hurricane Harvey and repairing their homes from the flood it caused. They appreciate Lake Conroe residents who supported the lowering. While it may be a short-term inconvenience, it will give the Corps time to clear the river. Hopefully, it will also give residents of Lake Conroe time to repair their docks and renew their fight against invasive plant species.
Posted on June 18, 2018
293 Days since Hurricane Harvey