This is a letter to the editor from retired Kingwood resident Bill Fowler. Fowler managed real estate property taxes for one of the world’s largest oil companies for much of his career.His home flooded during Harvey.
An in-depth analysis of 2018 property tax assessments in one flooded neighborhood shows that flooded homeowners who didnot protest their appraisals last year were appraised on average higher per square foot than those who did successfully protest. That means if you flooded and did not protest, you could have paid thousands of dollars more in taxes than you should—and may have been assessed inequitably.
Kingwood Greens During Harvey. Photo courtesy of Jay Muscat.
Property Tax Reappraisal Season Starting Now
As Kingwood prepares for its most dreaded annual event, Hurricane Season, let’s not forget another discomforting annual occurrence, Property Tax Reappraisal Season.
Yes, this is your chance to accept the Harris County Appraisal District’s (HCAD) market value of your home or file a protest to seek a lower value.
This article should make it apparent that relying on HCAD to properly value your home can sometimes prove costly. This discussion relates specifically to flooded homes, but non-flooded homeowners should also review their assessments for opportunities to reduce HCAD’s opinion of market value.
Questions to Ensure Fair Appraisal
A majority of homeowners who flooded during Hurricane Harvey have not yet received their 2019 property tax appraisal notices from HCAD. However, some have. When you receive your 2019 assessment notice, keep these questions in mind:
How much did the market value of your home change between January 1, 2018 and January 1, 2019?
If you made progress towards, or completed, restoration of your home between January 1, 2018 and January 1, 2019, how much did you increase your home’s market value?
If your repairs are completed, is this year’s proposed value realistic compared to your 2017 pre-flood value?
Does HCAD have sufficient comparable post-flood sales data to support its opinion of the appraised value of your home?
Is your assessment equitable relative to your neighbors’?
Early Trends in Heavily Flooded Neighborhoods
A review of HCAD’s 2019 online records has revealed early trends in three heavily flooded neighborhoods. Results reported here likely include a mix of both fully and partially repaired homes. Numbers in parenthesis reflect approximate percentage of homes in the neighborhood with published 2019 assessments; HCAD lists all remaining home values as “Pending.”
Kingwood Greens (25%): Average values are up 40% from 2018. 2019 values are only 5% lower than pre-Harvey 2017 values.
The Barrington (55%): Average values are up 18% from 2018. 2019 values are only 9% lower than pre-Harvey 2017 values.
The Enclave (20%): Average values are up 21% from 2018. 2019 values are only 7% lower than pre-Harvey 2017 values.
Success of Protests
To illustrate the effect of successfully protesting your assessment, I analyzed the final 2018 property tax year assessments of all Kingwood Greens homes using HCAD’s public information.
On average, Kingwood Greens homeowners who protested their assessments saw significantly greater declines in their 2018 final assessments and were assessed less per square foot compared to homeowners who chose not to protest.
About half of Kingwood Greens residents chose to accept HCAD’s initial 2018 assessments. The average reduction in their appraised value was 25% below 2017 and average assessment per square foot was $108.
The other half (despite their assessments being down initially 21% from 2017) protested their assessments. 98% of those who completed the protest process reduced HCAD’s initial proposed assessments. Reductions ranged from as low as $4,000 to more than $500,000.
At the end of the day, successfully protested homes were appraised 36% lower on average than in 2017 @ $96 per square foot — a far greater average reduction and lower value per square foot than the 25% and $108 per square foot realized on non-protested properties.
Your Fair Share
To ensure you pay only your fair share of taxes this year, it seems prudent to consider filing a protest when you receive your notice. You have 30 days from the date of the notice to file the protest which can be done either electronically on the HCAD.org website or by mail. Your assessment notice will include instructions on how to protest.
Once HCAD receives your protest, you will receive an informal hearing date. You can also access electronically the sales and other evidence HCAD used to determine your assessment.
You may represent yourself in the protest process or hire a consultant to represent you. Should you hire a consultant, the consultant’s fees can reduce any savings you realize by up to 50%.
Additional Clarifications and Thoughts
By law, property must be appraised at Market Value as of January 1 each year, and then taxed at the Appraised Value (less exemptions). Your 2019 assessment is based on market value as of January 1, 2019.
Notice that your 2019 assessment notice references two values: Market Value and Appraised Value.
Market Value is the price at which a property would transfer for cash or its equivalent under prevailing market conditions. Keep in mind this is the value you will be challenging if you protest, not Appraised Value.
The appraisal district compares your property to similar properties that recently sold. Then they adjust for differences to arrive at an opinion of market value. Bottom line: Sales of homes comparable to yours are the basis of assessments.
When protesting, make sure HCAD has based its opinion of your home’s market value on properties that are truly comparable. Valid comparable sales need to be located in the same general neighborhood. Valid adjustments recognize differences such as size, age, condition, quality of construction and additional features (pool vs. no-pool, for example).
Especially important: Flooded home market values should not be based on sales of non-flooded homes (or vice versa).
If your home was still under repair as of January 1, 2019, make sure HCAD recognizes the proper stage of completion of your repairs as of that date. Ensure you are not valued as completely restored or at too great a percentage of completion.
Your tax liability depends on your Appraised Value (less any exemptions you qualify for). Its capped at an increase of 10% above the prior year’s Appraised Value (provided you have not improved the property—i.e. increased the size of the property, added a pool, etc. in the past year).
Important to note: If your flooded home was not completely restored by January 1, 2018, for tax year 2019, that cap is 21% above your 2017 assessment, not 2018 assessment.
If you completed flood repairs by January 1, 2018, the 10% cap over last year’s appraised value applies.
Remember: Equity Also Matters
One last issue to bear in mind: Don’t forget equity! Just as all properties are legally mandated to be valued at market value, the law also requires each appraisal to be equitable in relation to the median level of appraisal of comparable properties (after the adjustments mentioned above). This requires comparing your assessment to those of comparable homes in your neighborhood to ensure you are equitably assessed and paying only your fair share. An inequitable appraisal is also grounds for protest.
May 7 Flood Victims Must Wait Until Next Year
Any flooding that occurred to homes in early May was past the January 1 assessment date. By law, the 2019 values must be based on market value of properties as of that date and taxing jurisdictions cannot request disaster reappraisals without a disaster declaration. Therefore, the 2019 assessments of people who flooded on May 7 will not reflect losses in market value due to flood damage, but may impact their 2020 assessments.
By Bill Fowler, 6/10/2019
650 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/KingwoodGreens-e1551452236612.jpg?fit=1500%2C1038&ssl=110381500adminadmin2019-06-10 09:06:472019-06-10 13:29:57How Some Flood Victims Saved Substantial Tax Dollars
In the School of Hard Knocks, there’s an introductory course called, “Money Has a Short Memory.” Most students fail this free course and, as a consequence, are still paying “tuition” years later. The irony was never more visible than last week. As I reviewed a Houston Public Media Story about how the City of Houston was not attempting to curb development in the 100-year flood plain – despite everything we learned from Harvey – I had a presentation about the 1994 flood waiting for review on my desktop.
1994 Flood Should Have Taught Us Lessons We Still Haven’t Learned
Kingwood received 29″ of rain that week. Rainfall averaged 19.5 inches over the entire 2,880-square mile San Jacinto River watershed. The event lasted four days. It started on Saturday, October 15, 1994 when Pacific Hurricane Rosa met a gulf coast warm front over Texas. It affected 38 Texas Counties, an area as large as Maine.
1.9 million acre-feet of runoff passed through Lake Houston: almost 12 times the volume of the entire lake! The lake crested 8.3 feet above the 3,160-foot spillway.
Homes under construction on Atascocita Point. HCFCD Photo from presentation by Yung and Barrett on 1994 flood.
Stunning Photos of 1994 Flood
The presentation contains photos of flooding:
On Atascocita point, where new construction was just beginning at the time.
In Forest Cove townhomes that would flood at least four more times before buyouts
In Banana Bend below Lake Houston, which is also just now being bought out
Around Toys ‘R Us on 59 – before an entire strip center of big box stores surrounded it
That collapsed the 59 bridge
That downed power lines over Lake Houston
That went up to the roofline of what was then Reeves Furniture on the southbound 59 feeder just north of the West Fork
That ruptured pipelines across the San Jacinto and started a toxic blaze
That buried downstream areas in sand and gravel.
Sound familiar? It should. Virtually all those things happened during Harvey, with the exception of the pipeline fire. However, toxic waste pits were involved during Harvey.
What are the Chances?
At the time, experts opined about how rainfall exceeded the expected 100-year levels. But the new Atlas-14 data released by NOAA, now advises that a four-day flood averaging 19.5 inches would have an average recurrence interval of 50 years.
The latest NOAA Atlas-14 Rainfall Data for the Lake Houston area
After Harvey, people dazed by the devastation, solemnly concluded that the storm must have been a 500-year, a 1,000-year, or even a greater storm. They had absolute faith in the numbers that developers, engineers, bankers, insurers, and government agencies certified. They assumed storm intensity had to be greater than expected. It never occurred to them that perhaps the numbers could be off…in the other direction.
Complicating things, most people are oblivious to the nuances of probabilities. The naming convention (100-year storm) misleads them into thinking that if we had a 100-year storm last year, “we must be good for another 99 years.” Wrong. Theoretically, if you tossed a coin and it came up heads 99 times in a row, you have a 50:50 chance of getting heads on the hundredth toss, too.
How many people read…or understand…the fine print in tables like the one above? Did you read the footnotes? If not, please go back and read them now. It’s important for your own safety and the safety of your investment.
They’re trying to say, “We can’t predict extremes with accuracy.”
Conclusions of 1994 Flood Presentation
Yung and Barrett conclude with several warnings. They include.
Extreme rainfall events will continue to occur.
The adoption of criteria that exceed FEMA minimum requirements should be considered by communities to guard against severe events.
So until the City learns this lesson, what’s someone without a PhD in math supposed to do when buying a home? Forego the river or lake view and buy on the highest ground you can find. Buyer beware! There are huge markups on floodplain property. And money has a short memory.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/9/2019, based on a presentation by Andy Yung and Duange Barrett
649 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/AtascocitaPoint-in-1994.jpg?fit=1500%2C1037&ssl=110371500adminadmin2019-06-09 19:17:192019-06-09 19:17:30“Money Has a Short Memory” or How Lessons from 1994 Flood Might Have Averted Much Harvey Damage
Rains this week were neither as fast, nor as heavy as the May rains that caused extensive flooding on all four sides of Woodridge Village in May. Also, since the May rains, the developer had excavated much more of a crucial detention pond near the areas hardest hit by the May floods. As a result, I heard of no reported flooding in Elm Grove, North Kingwood Forest or Porter this week.
How Much Rain We Got
The screen capture below from the Harris County Flood Warning System shows the total rainfall for Lake Houston Area gages on June 5th and 6th. They range from about 1.5″ to 4″, with the higher totals on the southern side of the area. About 90% of these totals fell on Wednesday, June 5, during the morning hours.
Rainfall totals June 5-6 associated with first tropical disturbance of season. The rain fell on dry ground. No flooding was reported in the Lake Houston area, though Fort Bend and coastal counties received up to 14″.Source HarrisCoutyFWS.org.
During the 7 hours from 5 a.m. to noon, we received about 3.5 inches of rain at the nearest official gage.Source HarrisCoutyFWS.org.
Residents Anxious About a Repeat of May 7 Flood
Woodridge Village is the 268-acre clearcut area currently under development between Kingwood and Porter along the Harris/Montgomery County line. Two hundred homes in Kingwood and dozens in Porter that border the new subdivision flooded during more intense rains on May 7th.
However, repeat flooding was avoided. That was because of a combination of factors. Compared to May 7, we had lower rainfall totals, lower rainfall intensity, and most of Woodridge detention pond S2 (the second southern pond) had been excavated.
How Woodridge Village Handled the Rain This Week and Why
This sequence of pictures shows what the part of Woodridge immediately near Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest looked like after the May 7 storm up through the peak of last Wednesday’s storm (6/5/19).
Engineers planned a huge detention pond for the entire southeast section of Woodridge. It should hold approximately 50 acre-feet of stormwater.
Approved plans for S2 Detention Pond (the second pond in the southern section).Approximate S2 outline superimposed over keyframe from drone footage taken on May 9, 2019, two days after the May flood. This shows percentage of S2 actually excavated at time of flood: very little. Note also, the absence of silt fences. Virtually the entire 268 acres drains toward the culvert in the lower right.Drone footage courtesy of Jim Zura, Zura Productions. Zura is an FAA-licensed drone pilot.By May 30, much more of S2 had been excavated. Outline of pond was becoming visible.Photo Courtesy of Jeff Miller. In the background, notice the black silt fence has finally been installed. It should have been installed before they started clearing land.
On the evening of June 4, Jeff Miller took the shot below from on top of the concrete box culvert where all of Woodridge Village drains into Taylor Gully.
Notice the depth of excavation in the deepest part. It had not rained for three weeks and the water was missing on May 30. Note also, the rocks in wire cages designed to hold back silt in a flood. The height of the bikes gives you a feeling for how tall the rocks are. Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller on 6/4/2019.
The next day, on 6/5/2019, we got the bulk of the rain from the storm. Jeff Miller went out again in the afternoon and took this shot showing how full the pond was.
6/5/2019 photo of S2 by Jeff Miller showing the amount of rainwater detained from the day’s storms.The low area in the center of the image leading to the pond is an overflow channel for the ditch behind the camera position that narrows down into a three-foot pipe.
Just after the rain stopped on the 6/5/19, Nancy Vera took this shot, near the peak of the flow.
At the peak of the flow, water covered the circled rocks (see swimming shot) now lining the channel to prevent silt moving downstream.Photo courtesy of Nancy Vera.It appears that a 4″ rain spread out over a day – when the ground was not saturated – did not tax the capacity of the culvert either.This should be some comfort to residents.Image courtesy of Nancy Vera.Even the 3′ culvert that runs along the western edge of North Kingwood Forest had room to spare. Photo courtesy of Nancy Vera.Even Taylor Gully had plenty of room to spare. Photo courtesy of Nancy Vera.
Sleep a Little Easier
So what can we deduce from all of these observations.
The expansion of the S2 detention pond since the May 7th flood has created a greater margin of safety.
Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest residents should sleep a little better knowing that they are protected from storms as large as we got on Wednesday, June 5.
Based on the latest NOAA Atlas 14 figures (see below), it looks like Wednesday’s rain ranked as a 1- to 2-year event.
It appears that there may be even more capacity to absorb even bigger rains.
However, with all ponds not yet complete, it’s unclear whether these ponds could handle a storm like we had on May 7th or a major hurricane.
NOAA Atlas-14 Rainfall Frequency Chart. Find the line that represents how much rain fell during a given period of time. Then look up to the top of that column to find the average recurrence interval (ARI).3.5 inches of rain in a 7-hour period would be a rain we could expect every year or two.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 8, 2019with help from Nancy Vera, Jim Zura and Jeff Miller.
648 Days since Hurricane Harvey and One Month since the May 7th Flood
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/S2.jpg?fit=1500%2C884&ssl=18841500adminadmin2019-06-07 22:25:192019-06-07 23:45:22How Woodridge Village Neighbors Fared in Last Large Rain and Why
How Some Flood Victims Saved Substantial Tax Dollars
This is a letter to the editor from retired Kingwood resident Bill Fowler. Fowler managed real estate property taxes for one of the world’s largest oil companies for much of his career. His home flooded during Harvey.
An in-depth analysis of 2018 property tax assessments in one flooded neighborhood shows that flooded homeowners who did not protest their appraisals last year were appraised on average higher per square foot than those who did successfully protest. That means if you flooded and did not protest, you could have paid thousands of dollars more in taxes than you should—and may have been assessed inequitably.
Property Tax Reappraisal Season Starting Now
As Kingwood prepares for its most dreaded annual event, Hurricane Season, let’s not forget another discomforting annual occurrence, Property Tax Reappraisal Season.
Yes, this is your chance to accept the Harris County Appraisal District’s (HCAD) market value of your home or file a protest to seek a lower value.
This article should make it apparent that relying on HCAD to properly value your home can sometimes prove costly. This discussion relates specifically to flooded homes, but non-flooded homeowners should also review their assessments for opportunities to reduce HCAD’s opinion of market value.
Questions to Ensure Fair Appraisal
A majority of homeowners who flooded during Hurricane Harvey have not yet received their 2019 property tax appraisal notices from HCAD. However, some have. When you receive your 2019 assessment notice, keep these questions in mind:
Early Trends in Heavily Flooded Neighborhoods
A review of HCAD’s 2019 online records has revealed early trends in three heavily flooded neighborhoods. Results reported here likely include a mix of both fully and partially repaired homes. Numbers in parenthesis reflect approximate percentage of homes in the neighborhood with published 2019 assessments; HCAD lists all remaining home values as “Pending.”
Success of Protests
To illustrate the effect of successfully protesting your assessment, I analyzed the final 2018 property tax year assessments of all Kingwood Greens homes using HCAD’s public information.
About half of Kingwood Greens residents chose to accept HCAD’s initial 2018 assessments. The average reduction in their appraised value was 25% below 2017 and average assessment per square foot was $108.
The other half (despite their assessments being down initially 21% from 2017) protested their assessments. 98% of those who completed the protest process reduced HCAD’s initial proposed assessments. Reductions ranged from as low as $4,000 to more than $500,000.
Your Fair Share
To ensure you pay only your fair share of taxes this year, it seems prudent to consider filing a protest when you receive your notice. You have 30 days from the date of the notice to file the protest which can be done either electronically on the HCAD.org website or by mail. Your assessment notice will include instructions on how to protest.
Once HCAD receives your protest, you will receive an informal hearing date. You can also access electronically the sales and other evidence HCAD used to determine your assessment.
You may represent yourself in the protest process or hire a consultant to represent you. Should you hire a consultant, the consultant’s fees can reduce any savings you realize by up to 50%.
Additional Clarifications and Thoughts
Remember: Equity Also Matters
One last issue to bear in mind: Don’t forget equity! Just as all properties are legally mandated to be valued at market value, the law also requires each appraisal to be equitable in relation to the median level of appraisal of comparable properties (after the adjustments mentioned above). This requires comparing your assessment to those of comparable homes in your neighborhood to ensure you are equitably assessed and paying only your fair share. An inequitable appraisal is also grounds for protest.
May 7 Flood Victims Must Wait Until Next Year
Any flooding that occurred to homes in early May was past the January 1 assessment date. By law, the 2019 values must be based on market value of properties as of that date and taxing jurisdictions cannot request disaster reappraisals without a disaster declaration. Therefore, the 2019 assessments of people who flooded on May 7 will not reflect losses in market value due to flood damage, but may impact their 2020 assessments.
By Bill Fowler, 6/10/2019
650 Days since Hurricane Harvey
“Money Has a Short Memory” or How Lessons from 1994 Flood Might Have Averted Much Harvey Damage
In the School of Hard Knocks, there’s an introductory course called, “Money Has a Short Memory.” Most students fail this free course and, as a consequence, are still paying “tuition” years later. The irony was never more visible than last week. As I reviewed a Houston Public Media Story about how the City of Houston was not attempting to curb development in the 100-year flood plain – despite everything we learned from Harvey – I had a presentation about the 1994 flood waiting for review on my desktop.
1994 Flood Should Have Taught Us Lessons We Still Haven’t Learned
The presentation, “Rain by the Cubit: The Great Southeast Texas Flood of 1994,” brought back memories. That was the year I started my company. I was supposed to move into my first commercial office space when this flood hit.
Kingwood received 29″ of rain that week. Rainfall averaged 19.5 inches over the entire 2,880-square mile San Jacinto River watershed. The event lasted four days. It started on Saturday, October 15, 1994 when Pacific Hurricane Rosa met a gulf coast warm front over Texas. It affected 38 Texas Counties, an area as large as Maine.
Stunning Photos of 1994 Flood
The presentation contains photos of flooding:
Sound familiar? It should. Virtually all those things happened during Harvey, with the exception of the pipeline fire. However, toxic waste pits were involved during Harvey.
What are the Chances?
After Harvey, people dazed by the devastation, solemnly concluded that the storm must have been a 500-year, a 1,000-year, or even a greater storm. They had absolute faith in the numbers that developers, engineers, bankers, insurers, and government agencies certified. They assumed storm intensity had to be greater than expected. It never occurred to them that perhaps the numbers could be off…in the other direction.
How Average Recurrence Interval is Determined
All these numbers (500-year, etc.) are based on extremely small data sets. Forecasters use a branch of mathematics called Extreme Value Analysis (EVA). With EVA, they try to forecast the probability of unobserved future events based on the frequency of somewhat smaller past events. EVA may produce the best numbers possible, but predicting 500-years into the future based on 100 years of data takes a lot of guess-work.
Limitations of Numbers
Complicating things, most people are oblivious to the nuances of probabilities. The naming convention (100-year storm) misleads them into thinking that if we had a 100-year storm last year, “we must be good for another 99 years.” Wrong. Theoretically, if you tossed a coin and it came up heads 99 times in a row, you have a 50:50 chance of getting heads on the hundredth toss, too.
How many people read…or understand…the fine print in tables like the one above? Did you read the footnotes? If not, please go back and read them now. It’s important for your own safety and the safety of your investment.
Conclusions of 1994 Flood Presentation
Yung and Barrett conclude with several warnings. They include.
So until the City learns this lesson, what’s someone without a PhD in math supposed to do when buying a home? Forego the river or lake view and buy on the highest ground you can find. Buyer beware! There are huge markups on floodplain property. And money has a short memory.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/9/2019, based on a presentation by Andy Yung and Duange Barrett
649 Days since Hurricane Harvey
How Woodridge Village Neighbors Fared in Last Large Rain and Why
Rains this week were neither as fast, nor as heavy as the May rains that caused extensive flooding on all four sides of Woodridge Village in May. Also, since the May rains, the developer had excavated much more of a crucial detention pond near the areas hardest hit by the May floods. As a result, I heard of no reported flooding in Elm Grove, North Kingwood Forest or Porter this week.
How Much Rain We Got
The screen capture below from the Harris County Flood Warning System shows the total rainfall for Lake Houston Area gages on June 5th and 6th. They range from about 1.5″ to 4″, with the higher totals on the southern side of the area. About 90% of these totals fell on Wednesday, June 5, during the morning hours.
Residents Anxious About a Repeat of May 7 Flood
Woodridge Village is the 268-acre clearcut area currently under development between Kingwood and Porter along the Harris/Montgomery County line. Two hundred homes in Kingwood and dozens in Porter that border the new subdivision flooded during more intense rains on May 7th.
So when the first tropical depression of the year approached earlier this week and merged with a second low coming out of the west, residents were on edge. Especially when the National Weather Service announced a flash flood watch that spread over two days.
However, repeat flooding was avoided. That was because of a combination of factors. Compared to May 7, we had lower rainfall totals, lower rainfall intensity, and most of Woodridge detention pond S2 (the second southern pond) had been excavated.
How Woodridge Village Handled the Rain This Week and Why
This sequence of pictures shows what the part of Woodridge immediately near Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest looked like after the May 7 storm up through the peak of last Wednesday’s storm (6/5/19).
Engineers planned a huge detention pond for the entire southeast section of Woodridge. It should hold approximately 50 acre-feet of stormwater.
On the evening of June 4, Jeff Miller took the shot below from on top of the concrete box culvert where all of Woodridge Village drains into Taylor Gully.
The next day, on 6/5/2019, we got the bulk of the rain from the storm. Jeff Miller went out again in the afternoon and took this shot showing how full the pond was.
Just after the rain stopped on the 6/5/19, Nancy Vera took this shot, near the peak of the flow.
Sleep a Little Easier
So what can we deduce from all of these observations.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 8, 2019 with help from Nancy Vera, Jim Zura and Jeff Miller.
648 Days since Hurricane Harvey and One Month since the May 7th Flood