The National Hurricane Center and Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner now predict that a tropical cyclone will likely develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
5-day outlook shows low pressure system tracking westward over warm Gulf waters.
Models Now Predict Westward Development
Overnight, the threat increased westward along the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
The National Weather Service expects a trough of low pressure located over central Georgia to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. There, it should form a broader area of low pressure in a couple of days. A tropical depression will likely form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. Formation chance in the next two days remains low at 10 percent, but increases to 80 percent in the 5-day outlook.
Likely Path
Upper air conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form and then intensify over much of the US Gulf coast and northern Gulf. Models now predict that any Gulf system would tend to track more westward.
Intensity
“A tropical storm is likely and a hurricane is not out of the question,” says Lindner. “If forecast models continue to show the westward motion and potential threat to the northwest Gulf, significant forecast changes will be required over the next 24-48 hours.”
What to Do Now
Closely monitor the progress of this system.
Check hurricane preparation kits and plans.
Be ready to enact those plans later this week.
Monitor weather forecasts closely.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/8/2019
678 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/image001.jpg?fit=624%2C461&ssl=1461624adminadmin2019-07-08 07:43:192019-07-08 07:47:29Tropical Cyclone Threat Increases Later This Week
The equity flap continues. In its June 25th meeting, Harris County Commissioners Court voted 3-2 to take a portion of METRO fundingAWAY from Harris County Precincts 3 and 4. This vote impacts Precinct 4 constituents by $3,069,709 in road construction funds this year alone.
This attack was just a beginning. Commissioners Ellis and Garcia stated in a joint press conference that they seek to also go after portions of Precinct 3’s and 4’s Mobility Funds…based on…you guessed it…equity. Watch the video above all the way to the end. An estimated $6 million per year is at stake in Precinct 4.
Basis for Equity
The current formula for distribution of METRO and mobility funds accounts for the number of road miles each precinct must maintain.
Compared to precinct 4, Precinct 1 also has 38% of the lane miles, 42% of the asphalt roads, one third of the unincorporated land mass, and one fourth of the housing starts.
I don’t dispute the existence of “historically disadvantaged” ethnic groups. However, I do question why road funds should be distributed by race. It seems other factors such as need, area covered, growth rate, or population served relate more directly.
Highest Percentage of Unincorporated Population in Precinct 4
Historically speaking, the county’s mission is to provide services to unincorporated areas.
So let’s start this discussion by looking at the percentage of county residents within each precinct who live in unincorporated vs. incorporated areas, such as the City of Houston. Here we see that Precinct 4 must support virtually triple the the number of unincorporated residents that Precinct 1 supports. Residents who live in unincorporated areas have support other than the county to help meet their needs.
Precinct 4 must support virtually triple the the number of unincorporated residents that Precinct 1 supports.
Highest Percentage of Road Miles in Precinct 4
Another way to look at need is by the number of road miles that each precinct must maintain. Here we can see that Precinct 4 has more lane miles, thoroughfare miles, and open-ditch asphalt roads to support than Precinct 1 by wide margins.
Highest Percentage of Growth in Precinct 4
Growth rates also factor into need in a very direct way. Here again, we can see that Precinct 4 is growing faster than Precinct 1 by many measures.
Change in “total population” percentage (incorporated + unincorporated)
Change in unincorporated population percentage
New housing and apartment starts
Residents inside the City receive county funds, too. Precincts receive them based on a weighted formula.
Precinct 4 Also Has Larger Area to Cover than Precinct 1
From the table above, we can see that Precinct 4 also has about 6.51% more square miles to service than Precinct 1.
What Funds Go For
Precinct 4 maintains over 2,600 road miles and 327 bridges in a 72% unincorporated area.
Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle said, “These Mobility Funds maintain and construct roads that keep traffic moving. They also provide roadway access for a prompt response for law enforcement, fire and emergency medical services that will ensure the continued safety of all residents.”
The ditches that parallel those roads also play a huge role in carrying water away from neighborhoods, thus reducing the risk of flooding.
Subversion of Language
The inclusion of equity in the flood bond language seems to have opened a Pandora’s box. When I listen to Commissioner Ellis and when I look at hard data, I get the feeling that the meaning of “equity” is being distorted as part of a crass money grab. This isn’t equity. It’s Commissioner Ellis seeking reparations for misdeeds of generations past.
To me, equity in this context means a fair, just, impartial, or balanced distribution of funds.
Equity should be based on objective measures, such as area served, population served, or miles that must be maintained. Those should be debated openly.
The way Commissioner Ellis uses the word, however, the outcome becomes the opposite of equity. Money is not distributed based on per capita, per road mile, or per square mile. It’s based on racial preference and results in an inequitable distribution of funds based on other objective measures.
It’s hard to reason with someone flaming about racial injustice 200 years ago. And Mr. Ellis, like most demagogues, knows that. He also exploits it. I just hope he doesn’t kill growth in Harris County while he’s doing it. Because that’s where he’s headed…including (insiders say) redirecting money from the flood bond.
Voice your opinion at the next Commissioners Court meeting on Tuesday, July 9
Commissioners Court meetings are open to the public and begin at 10:00 a.m. at 1001 Preston Street, Suite 934, Houston, Texas 77002. However, if you wish to speak, you must complete the online appearance request form found at:
It is now very typical for Commissioners Court to go beyond 6 hours.
Those who do not state an agenda item when they sign up are usually forced to wait until the end of the session. However, you can insert the agenda item in the “Subject Matter” box when you sign up. This should increase the probability of you speaking earlier.
Agenda item 19.e.1.b Mobility Funding includes this topic You can also put any additional description that you want in the subject description box.
U. S. Mail: The Honorable Judge Lina Hidalgo 1001 Preston, Suite 911 Houston, TX 77002
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/7/2019
677 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Lane-Miles.jpg?fit=900%2C1350&ssl=11350900adminadmin2019-07-07 20:42:482019-07-08 07:08:23Harris County Precinct 4 METRO and Mobility Funding Also Under “Equity” Attack in Commissioners Court
New images by RD Kissling, a Lake-Houston-area geologist and canoeist, show two things. The Great Lakes dredge near the mouth bar sat idle this holiday weekend. Also Great Lakes has not made much progress yet.
Dredge seems to be hugging the south shore of the mouth bar. An excavator has removed vegetation and loosened sand in that area.
Kissling Video Underscores Immensity of Undertaking
Also, Kissling shot more video. This 32-second clip shows him standing in less-than-knee-deep water approximately 300 yards from the mouth bar. This video dramatizes the immensity of the task at hand. It also shows where the channel currently lies relative to the mouth bar itself.
Video showing RD Kissling in shin-deep water 300 yards from the south shore of the mouth bar.
Kissling and Tim Garfield, another local geologist first brought the dangers of the mouth bar to the public’s attention. Massive deposits of sand cause water to flow uphill by 30+ feet between the end of Phase-One dredging and the mouth bar. That backs water up during floods. The channel width and depth simply don’t have enough conveyance capacity to move floodwaters through. As a result, the floodwaters slow down, drop their sediment load, enlarge the blockage, and start to spread out overland.
The mouth bar of the West Fork of the San Jacinto. Photo taken two weeks after Harvey.
Clampdown on Communications
Neither the City, County, State, FEMA or Corps have made their plans clear yet. This contrasts with the start of Phase-One dredging when the Corps and City proudly trotted out presentations in community meetings.
I submitted a FOIA request to the Corps for their plans several weeks ago. However, I have not yet received those plans. I did receive a request for clarification asking what I meant by “plans”? I responded that I could not imagine the US Army staging an operation this large and expensive without a plan. They thanked me for the clarification.
The FOIA stalling and clamp down on communication from all parties involved suggests that the Federal government and local authorities have not yet reached a mutually satisfactory agreement. It has been nine months since they announced an agreement in principle after the “everybody-but-Trump” meeting in Austin.
To be fair, this has been a holiday week and many people are on vacation. Perhaps things will become clearer when they return.
With City elections fast approaching, it will be interesting to see if progress – or the lack thereof – affects how the Lake Houston Area votes. We’re running out of time to make reasonable dredging progress before November. With two years in the rear-view mirror since Harvey, I suspect voters will look at performance more than promises when they go to the polls.
In coming weeks, I will post about where the candidates line up on the three major goals for the Lake Houston Area: additional dredging, detention and gates (Plea for DDG). I also hope that this will be the first of weekly reports on mouth bar dredging. So if you are out on the water, please send pics of what you see.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/2019
676 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/IMG_3245.jpg?fit=1500%2C780&ssl=17801500adminadmin2019-07-06 21:48:462019-07-06 21:57:23Mouth Bar Dredge Idle Over Holiday Weekend; Not Much Progress Yet
Tropical Cyclone Threat Increases Later This Week
The National Hurricane Center and Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner now predict that a tropical cyclone will likely develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Models Now Predict Westward Development
Overnight, the threat increased westward along the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
The National Weather Service expects a trough of low pressure located over central Georgia to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. There, it should form a broader area of low pressure in a couple of days. A tropical depression will likely form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast.
Likely Path
Upper air conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form and then intensify over much of the US Gulf coast and northern Gulf. Models now predict that any Gulf system would tend to track more westward.
Intensity
“A tropical storm is likely and a hurricane is not out of the question,” says Lindner. “If forecast models continue to show the westward motion and potential threat to the northwest Gulf, significant forecast changes will be required over the next 24-48 hours.”
What to Do Now
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/8/2019
678 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Harris County Precinct 4 METRO and Mobility Funding Also Under “Equity” Attack in Commissioners Court
The equity flap continues. In its June 25th meeting, Harris County Commissioners Court voted 3-2 to take a portion of METRO funding AWAY from Harris County Precincts 3 and 4. This vote impacts Precinct 4 constituents by $3,069,709 in road construction funds this year alone.
Basis for Equity
The current formula for distribution of METRO and mobility funds accounts for the number of road miles each precinct must maintain.
However, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis, once again, is trying to redistribute funds based on “equity,” which he defines as more for people who are “historically disadvantaged.” Specifically, he often refers to slavery when he talks about equity. Mr. Ellis represents a precinct that is roughly 39 percent African American, 37 percent Latino, 18 percent Anglo, 5 percent Asian and 1 percent other.
Compared to precinct 4, Precinct 1 also has 38% of the lane miles, 42% of the asphalt roads, one third of the unincorporated land mass, and one fourth of the housing starts.
Highest Percentage of Unincorporated Population in Precinct 4
Historically speaking, the county’s mission is to provide services to unincorporated areas.
So let’s start this discussion by looking at the percentage of county residents within each precinct who live in unincorporated vs. incorporated areas, such as the City of Houston. Here we see that Precinct 4 must support virtually triple the the number of unincorporated residents that Precinct 1 supports. Residents who live in unincorporated areas have support other than the county to help meet their needs.
Highest Percentage of Road Miles in Precinct 4
Another way to look at need is by the number of road miles that each precinct must maintain. Here we can see that Precinct 4 has more lane miles, thoroughfare miles, and open-ditch asphalt roads to support than Precinct 1 by wide margins.
Highest Percentage of Growth in Precinct 4
Growth rates also factor into need in a very direct way. Here again, we can see that Precinct 4 is growing faster than Precinct 1 by many measures.
Precinct 4 Also Has Larger Area to Cover than Precinct 1
From the table above, we can see that Precinct 4 also has about 6.51% more square miles to service than Precinct 1.
What Funds Go For
Precinct 4 maintains over 2,600 road miles and 327 bridges in a 72% unincorporated area.
Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle said, “These Mobility Funds maintain and construct roads that keep traffic moving. They also provide roadway access for a prompt response for law enforcement, fire and emergency medical services that will ensure the continued safety of all residents.”
Subversion of Language
The inclusion of equity in the flood bond language seems to have opened a Pandora’s box. When I listen to Commissioner Ellis and when I look at hard data, I get the feeling that the meaning of “equity” is being distorted as part of a crass money grab. This isn’t equity. It’s Commissioner Ellis seeking reparations for misdeeds of generations past.
To me, equity in this context means a fair, just, impartial, or balanced distribution of funds.
Equity should be based on objective measures, such as area served, population served, or miles that must be maintained. Those should be debated openly.
The way Commissioner Ellis uses the word, however, the outcome becomes the opposite of equity. Money is not distributed based on per capita, per road mile, or per square mile. It’s based on racial preference and results in an inequitable distribution of funds based on other objective measures.
It’s hard to reason with someone flaming about racial injustice 200 years ago. And Mr. Ellis, like most demagogues, knows that. He also exploits it. I just hope he doesn’t kill growth in Harris County while he’s doing it. Because that’s where he’s headed…including (insiders say) redirecting money from the flood bond.
Voice your opinion at the next Commissioners Court meeting on Tuesday, July 9
Commissioners Court meetings are open to the public and begin at 10:00 a.m. at 1001 Preston Street, Suite 934, Houston, Texas 77002. However, if you wish to speak, you must complete the online appearance request form found at:
https://appearancerequest.harriscountytx.gov/
It is now very typical for Commissioners Court to go beyond 6 hours.
Those who do not state an agenda item when they sign up are usually forced to wait until the end of the session. However, you can insert the agenda item in the “Subject Matter” box when you sign up. This should increase the probability of you speaking earlier.
Agenda item 19.e.1.b Mobility Funding includes this topic You can also put any additional description that you want in the subject description box.
Here is the link for a copy of the agenda: https://agenda.harriscountytx.gov
If you are unable to speak in person, contact Judge Hidalgo to express your concern. Make sure you read this four part series on equity first.
The Honorable Judge Lina Hidalgo
1001 Preston, Suite 911
Houston, TX 77002
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/7/2019
677 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Mouth Bar Dredge Idle Over Holiday Weekend; Not Much Progress Yet
New images by RD Kissling, a Lake-Houston-area geologist and canoeist, show two things. The Great Lakes dredge near the mouth bar sat idle this holiday weekend. Also Great Lakes has not made much progress yet.
Kissling Video Underscores Immensity of Undertaking
Also, Kissling shot more video. This 32-second clip shows him standing in less-than-knee-deep water approximately 300 yards from the mouth bar. This video dramatizes the immensity of the task at hand. It also shows where the channel currently lies relative to the mouth bar itself.
History of Mouth Bar Dredging
The Corps excluded the mouth bar in the first phase of dredging. Instead, it focused on a 2.1 mile stretch upstream. Since the Corps revealed its Phase-One plans, residents have been organizing to ensure dredging through the mouth-bar reach.
Kissling and Tim Garfield, another local geologist first brought the dangers of the mouth bar to the public’s attention. Massive deposits of sand cause water to flow uphill by 30+ feet between the end of Phase-One dredging and the mouth bar. That backs water up during floods. The channel width and depth simply don’t have enough conveyance capacity to move floodwaters through. As a result, the floodwaters slow down, drop their sediment load, enlarge the blockage, and start to spread out overland.
Clampdown on Communications
Neither the City, County, State, FEMA or Corps have made their plans clear yet. This contrasts with the start of Phase-One dredging when the Corps and City proudly trotted out presentations in community meetings.
I submitted a FOIA request to the Corps for their plans several weeks ago. However, I have not yet received those plans. I did receive a request for clarification asking what I meant by “plans”? I responded that I could not imagine the US Army staging an operation this large and expensive without a plan. They thanked me for the clarification.
To be fair, this has been a holiday week and many people are on vacation. Perhaps things will become clearer when they return.
To date, the small amount of excavation completed has focused on the edge of the mouth bar itself, not widening or deepening the channel near Atascocita Point. This July 2 Community Impact article suggests that the Corps intends to dredge the edge of the mouth bar but offers no other detail or explanations.
Impact of Dredging on November Elections
With City elections fast approaching, it will be interesting to see if progress – or the lack thereof – affects how the Lake Houston Area votes. We’re running out of time to make reasonable dredging progress before November. With two years in the rear-view mirror since Harvey, I suspect voters will look at performance more than promises when they go to the polls.
In coming weeks, I will post about where the candidates line up on the three major goals for the Lake Houston Area: additional dredging, detention and gates (Plea for DDG). I also hope that this will be the first of weekly reports on mouth bar dredging. So if you are out on the water, please send pics of what you see.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/2019
676 Days since Hurricane Harvey