Houston-Region Groundwater, Subsidence Studies Reveal Stunning Facts

8/17/2025 – Three scientists have summarized more than 100 years of studies about the relationship of groundwater and land subsidence in the Houston region. The study’s title: “A Century (1906-2024) of Groundwater and Land Subsidence Studies in Greater Houston Region: A Review.” The review revealed some stunning facts about past groundwater management practices in the Houston area and their implications for the future.

About the Study

The comprehensive 25-page review of scientific literature is essential reading for anyone interested in understanding the history of geologic subsidence in southeast Texas. The review examines its causes, impacts, regulatory remedies, and how it’s measured.

The authors are Michael J, Turco and Ashley Greuter of the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, and Dr. Guoquan Wang of the University of Houston’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. They published their copyrighted article in the July/August 2025 issue of Groundwater on behalf of the National Groundwater Association.

Stunning Facts

In the study, the authors relate some fascinating facts about subsidence in the Houston region. For instance:

  • Subsidence has impacted approximately 12,000 square kilometers, encompassing nearly all of Harris and Galveston Counties as well as parts of surrounding counties.
  • This led to the irreversible loss of 12 cubic kilometers of groundwater storage – equivalent to 60 times the volume of Lake Houston.
  • That equals 8 years worth of water usage for all of Harris and Galveston Counties (at 2023 consumption rates).

That’s significant because groundwater is our backup for surface water during droughts. And who can forget the three-year drought from 2011 to 2013 when you could virtually walk from one side of Lake Houston to the other in many places.

Due to groundwater regulations, the extent of subsidence rates has decreased significantly since 1990. By the early 2020s, the areas seeing subsidence of greater than 1 cm per year had shrunk to one twentieth of the Houston region (1500 square kilometers). And only 50 square kilometers have rates higher than 2 cm/year.

Today, most of the remaining subsidence exists in the fast growing areas to the region’s north and west, which were the last to be regulated.

History of Subsidence in Region

According to Turco et. al., the earliest documented instance of subsidence happened in Baytown’s Goose Creek Oil Field during the 1920s.

From the late 1940s to the mid-1970s, rapid subsidence, occurring at rates of up to a decimeter per year, became increasingly pronounced in the southeastern parts of Houston

Declining groundwater levels (GWLs), driven by rapid industrial expansion, resulted in over 2 meters of subsidence in the area along the Houston Ship Channel from the 1940s to the mid-1970s.  By 1979, as much as 3 meters of subsidence had been documented in the Baytown area.

Since the 1990s, as Houston’s population expanded to the north and northwest groundwater pumping triggered subsidence. Areas around Katy, Jersey Village, and The Woodlands experienced subsidence rates of 1 to 3 cm per year as of the early 2020s.

Striking a balance between groundwater resource management, subsidence, urban development, and environmental sustainability is central to the Houston region’s future. The paper explores how regulatory initiatives have influenced current practices and policies as leaders seek to reduce and prevent subsidence.

Evolution of Regulatory Agencies

A large part of the paper deals with how regulatory entities have expanded their geographic scope to keep pace with population growth. The paper includes discussions of:

  • The Harris-Galveston Subsidence District (HGSD) in 1975
  • Updates to its groundwater regulatory plan in 1985, 1992, 1999, and 2013
  • Different regulatory areas within the Houston region
  • Fort Bend Subsidence District (FBSD) in 1989
  • Seven additional groundwater conservation districts covering most of the counties in the region.

Evolution of Monitoring Technology

Technology aficionados will appreciate the discussion of techniques used to monitor both groundwater levels and surface subsidence.

HGSD, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, monitors water levels and pumping rates in 650 wells throughout the region. HCSD also annually monitors groundwater pumpage from all permitted wells within the District (about 7500 wells in 2024).

As more water is extracted, clay layers in the soil become compacted. A former leader of the subsidence district once described it as “squashing a brownie.” Once compacted, it will not return to its former state.

The effects of subsidence are most notable closest to sea level. We can see them in the loss of highways, subdivisions, wetlands, vulnerability to storm surge, and more.

However, even areas a 100 feet or more above sea level can feel the impacts. Differential subsidence can trigger faults, disrupt pipelines, alter the gradient of streams, and create bowls in the landscape that increase flood risk.

Prior to the 1990s, subsidence was tracked through repeated spirit-leveling surveys and extensometers. However, since then, GPS has emerged as the dominant tool for measuring subsidence. It offers greater precision and more efficiency than conventional methods.

HGSD and FBSD operate approximately 114 subsidence measuring stations that use GPS. And they continuously add new stations to areas of interest.

They also use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to create detailed displacement maps over time. InSAR is especially good at filling in the gaps between the GPS measuring stations to create contour maps.

The scientists also use tidal gages and borehole extensometers to cross-reference data and extend the historical record of subsidence.

Major Discoveries

According to the authors, “Before the 1960s, the connection between groundwater extraction and subsidence was not immediately evident. Other factors, such as oil and gas extraction and local fault activity, were also considered significant contributors.”

They continue, “However, as evidence from ground-water-level measurements grew, and subsidence increasingly led to infrastructure damage and altered drainage patterns, it became clear that groundwater withdrawal was the primary driver of land subsidence.” 

Oil and gas extraction and fault movement were also considered serious contributors at one time. “However, as evidence from groundwater level measurements grew, and subsidence increasingly led to infrastructure damage and altered drainage patterns, it became clear that groundwater withdrawal was the primary driver of land subsidence,” say the authors.

Another major discovery was that subsidence-induced compaction of the soil has led to the loss of groundwater storage capacity.

“The volume of total land subsidence directly correlates with the loss of groundwater storage capacity,” says the paper. “Groundwater is a crucial backup supply for maintaining water security in large cities, and with decreased storage, the risk of water shortages grows, potentially impacting agricultural productivity, industrial operations, and daily life for residents.”

New Focus on Sustainability

In conclusion, the authors state, “As Houston’s population continues to grow, the increasing demand for water underscores the urgent need for sustainable water sources that extend beyond the current groundwater and surface water capacities. To address this, HGSD, FBSD, and GCDs are intensifying efforts in water conservation and exploring alternative water solutions, actively engaging local stakeholders.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/17/25

2910 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Southeast Texas Flood Control District Could Dissolve on Monday

August 16, 2025 – At its August 18, 2025 meeting, the Board of Directors of the Southeast Texas Flood Control District will discuss dissolving the District and taking all action necessary, through legal counsel, to formally close out all banking accounts and to satisfy any outstanding debts. See the agenda here.

District Formed After Imelda

The Southeast Texas Flood Control District, LGC is a local government corporation of Hardin, Jefferson, Orange, Chambers, Liberty, Newton, Jasper and Tyler Counties. They created it to coordinate flood-control efforts among the sponsoring counties and regional drainage districts, conservation districts, municipalities and other regional entities and communities.

The counties adopted the resolution approving the district in 2020. That was shortly after Tropical Storm Imelda dumped as much as 43 inches of rain over parts of Southeast Texas from Galveston to Beaumont in 2019.

Imelda
Tropical Storm Imelda in 2019 dumped more than 40″ of rain near Beaumont. NASA photo.

Hurricane Harvey had created even more devastation throughout the same areas just two years earlier.

Original Purpose of District Now Duplicated

The hope articulated in the articles of incorporation was that the District could protect residents, infrastructure, industry, businesses and housing against flooding by improving, enlarging and integrating damage-reduction systems.

This PowerPoint presentation explains more about the background, purpose, and origins of the group.

When asked why the group was considering dissolving, Fred Jackson, Executive Director of the District, said that the need had not gone away but the group’s efforts were duplicated by other groups that had also sprung up.

I could find no website for the Southeast Texas Flood Control District. Several flood control experts in Harris County had never even heard of it. So, it appears the vision may not have come together quite the way the founders hoped.

Need for Flood-Mitigation Simplification to Facilitate Cross-Jurisdictional Solutions

The fate of the Southeast Texas Flood Control District underscores the difficulty of coordinating multiple government agencies from municipal to federal across wide areas. Rural areas may find it especially hard to navigate the jurisdictional labyrinth. That’s why the bipartisan bill to streamline FEMA recently introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives by the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is so important.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/16/2025

2909 Days since Hurricane Harvey

SJRA, Conroe Settle Lawsuit after Nine Years

8/15/25 – The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Conroe issued a joint press release about the settlement this morning of their nine-year legal battle over water rates. This press release just came in. I’ve added subheads to help highlight key points. Otherwise, the text between the lines is verbatim:


SJRA Directors Unanimously Approve

Conroe, Texas—Today the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) Board of Directors unanimously approved the execution of a Mutual Release and Settlement Agreement with the City of Conroe to end current litigation related to the SJRA Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP). The City of Conroe considered and approved the Mutual Release and Settlement Agreement at a City Council meeting on Thursday.

End to Legal Squabbles is Mutually Beneficial

SJRA General Manager, Aubrey Spear, said “We appreciate the City of Conroe’s efforts in working with SJRA in reaching this settlement agreement. Putting this litigation behind us is best for all GRP participants and their rate payers. With Conroe’s payment and savings on legal fees, the wholesale water rates will go down. Ending the litigation also strengthens our partnership with Conroe to continue supplying water to its growing population.” 

Conroe City Administrator, Gary Scott, said “After months of negotiations, I am pleased with an outcome that is truly beneficial to both parties. Securing additional water is critical to Conroe’s economic growth and long-term vitality. We recognize and appreciate the efforts of the San Jacinto River Authority in working with us. This agreement represents a shared commitment to the betterment of us all. This is a historic decision that sets Conroe on the path to the future.”  

The agreement settles legal disputes between the parties dating back to 2016 when the City of Conroe disputed increases in wholesale water rates related to SJRA’s 2010 Groundwater Reduction Plan contract. 

Conroe Agrees to Pay Full Amount

In the settlement, the City of Conroe agrees to pay the full amount that it has short-paid SJRA since 2017 to the present that it has been holding in escrow. Conroe also agrees to begin paying the current rate for treated surface water from Lake Conroe and the groundwater pumpage fee going forward. 

SJRA Agrees to Provide More Surface Water and More

On the other hand, SJRA agrees to provide Conroe with additional surface water, reduce the term of Conroe’s GRP contract from 80 years to 40 years, forgive penalties and fees on past due amounts, and clarify in the contract that there is no obligation by the City of Conroe to participate in future GRP phases or expansion of the GRP water treatment plant.

Documents Not Yet Available 

Agreement documents are in the process of being fully executed.


 Reliance on Groundwater Has Contributed to Subsidence

This is good news for both parties. It will reduce the amount they spend on legal fees that rate- and taxpayers have funded.

However, the press release did not address how it will affect the amount of groundwater that Conroe pumps aside from saying that SJRA will provide Conroe with “additional surface water.”

Subsidence in southern Montgomery County including Conroe and the Woodlands is among the most severe in the region. SJRA’s Water Treatment Plant and the Groundwater Reduction Plan were at the heart of the lawsuit. Both were intended to reduce subsidence. And they did briefly when the plant first came online in 2015. Then the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District (LSGCD) started pumping huge amounts of groundwater, claiming there was no connection between the loss of groundwater and subsidence.

LSGCD says on their Resources Page under the subsidence tab that, “…the rate at which [their] compaction occurs is 10 times (10x) slower than the rate at which compaction occurs in Harris County.”

Regardless, a huge area is still sinking 8 to 12 millimeters per year. And most of Montgomery County is sinking at least 6 according to this subsidence map recently published by the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District.

Subsidence Has Triggered Faults

The subsidence has triggered faults in the area. That in turn has damaged homes, streets and drainage infrastructure. I spent a whole day last week taking a fault tour of the Woodlands with area residents. Below are three of dozens of pictures I took at day.

Fault line under the foundation cracked this Woodland’s home’s slab and walls.
Front steps are now twice their original height because the front yard sank relative to the front door.
Faulting damage in parking lot of Woodland’s High School.

Millimeters may not sound like much. But 12 millimeters per year is half an inch per year. During the life of a 30-year mortgage, that’s 15 inches…plus a lot of home and street repairs, and a lot of foundation leveling.

Inland subsidence has also been linked to flooding. It can change the gradient of streams and rivers, so water moves more slowly and builds higher during floods.

And differential subsidence (between two areas) can reduce the height of structures above floodplains. For instance, the subsidence rate in Conroe is far higher than subsidence at the Lake Houston Dam. That means homes north of the dam have less freeboard (height above expected floods). Said another way, it’s like tilting Lake Houston toward the homes north of the dam.

SJRA has not yet responded to questions about how the settlement will affect Conroe’s groundwater pumping.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/15/25

2908 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.