This Will Probably Miss Houston, But Keep Eyes on Gulf

Updated Tuesday @ 1:25 p.m.: At 1 p.m. Houston time this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical formation for a disturbance that could move into the Gulf tomorrow.

As of 7 a.m. Houston time this morning, the National Hurricane Center issued this advice about a trough of low pressure that is producing showers and thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Guatemala.

“By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is located over the western Gulf of Mexico.”

Formation chances through 48 hours are now rated…low…near 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Advice from Harris County Flood Control

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control’s meteorologist, had this to say about the disturbance.

Global forecast models have been suggesting that the large area of disturbed weather over central America will drift WNW into the southern Bay of Campeche by the middle of this week and then NW toward the SW Gulf of Mexico by late this week. Recent trends suggest upper level conditions may become favorable for the formation of a tropical system over the SW Gulf of Mexico late this week into this weekend.

Influence of Upper Level Currents

Lindner continued. “An amplifying upper level trough will be approaching TX by late this weekend into early next week and this feature should force any tropical system that forms toward the N and then toward the NE.”

“Latest guidance continues to indicate a tropical system moving across the west-central then north-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

It would be extremely rare for a tropical system to impact the state of TX this late in the hurricane season and the upcoming upper air pattern by this weekend favors a turn of any western Gulf of Mexico system toward the NE toward the central or eastern US Gulf coast.”

Local Forecast: Up to 3 Inches Possible

Lindner had this to say about the forecast for the Houston Area. “A cold front will move into the area tonight and this boundary along with pooled high moisture levels will support a good chance of rainfall over the area tonight into early Wednesday. Lines of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary with rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches and isolated totals up to 3 inches possible. A cooler and drier air mass will move into the region on Wednesday and linger into the later part of the week before moisture begins to return on Friday into the weekend.”

“It is now somewhat uncertain as to how much moisture will move into the area this weekend with the increasing potential for a western Gulf of Mexico tropical system moving across the central Gulf. This feature may take much of the moisture to our east.” 

This far in front of a storm, it’s hard to give exact predictions with much confidence. The best advice: raise your alert level and keep your eyes on the Gulf.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/15/2019

777 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 26 after Imelda

A Brief History of Lake Houston, the West Fork Mouth Bar and Attempts to Mobilize Dredging of It

Tim Garfield and RD Kissling, two of the world’s top geoscientists, happen to live in the Lake Houston Area. Both spent careers as highly placed executives for one of the world’s largest oil companies. Together, they have led the charge to raise awareness of the growing mouth bar on the West Fork of the San Jacinto where it meets Lake Houston. They have also lobbied long and hard with local leaders and the Army Corps to mobilize an effort to dredge the mouth bar.

On October 2, Garfield gave a presentation to the University of Houston Honors College. Debbie Z. Harwell, PhD, a history instructor at the college and editor of Houston History Magazine, organized the talk. Garfield summarized the history of Lake Houston, the West Fork Mouth Bar and attempts to mobilize a dredging program to remove the bar. The presentation is thoroughly researched and highly interesting. It focuses on the intersection of geologic and human history. Anyone interested in geology, flooding, history or politics should find it informative, fascinating and stimulating.

If you really want to learn what’s happening in the river and why, this is a must read.

You can download the entire 69-page presentation here. It’s titled “A Brief History of Lake Houston and the Hurricane Harvey Flood: The Combined Effects of Record Rain, Human Error and Predictable Geomorphic Processes.”

An Advancing Delta at Your Doorstep

The mouth bar is not just a giant sand bar at the mouth of the river. It’s part of an advancing delta system within the river and now the lake. Garfield and Kissling made careers out of studying deltas like this around the world. They point out that the delta’s growth is inevitable and the result of predictable geomorphic processes. All the more reason to take it seriously and plan for regular dredging to keep that channel open.

Yet attempts to remove the threat have largely been unsuccessful and largely for political reasons. The Corps did mount a nominal dredging program in July and August. But it was largely symbolic. They removed about 20-25% of what it would take to extend the upstream dredging channel through the mouth bar.

A post dredging survey shows that the Corps created an underwater box canyon that continues to slow down water and accelerate the deposition of sediment.

In fact, they left far more sediment behind than they dredged. Why? Was there some science to the decision to leave most of it in place? Have they made public a model for peer review that shows this was a good idea? In a word, NO!

Lack of Coherent Dredging Plan

Kissling and Garfield lament the lack of holistic understanding and a coherent dredging plan. I experienced this problem first hand. Before the Corps started dredging the mouth bar area, I requested their plans. The response I got shocked me. “Plans? What do you mean by plans?” That question came on the day of the deadline for processing my Freedom of Information Act request. I replied, “You know…plans…like the ones you shared for the first phase of dredging. Start points. Stop points. Channel widths. Depths. Objectives.” Twenty-three days later, they sent me a CD with 800 pages of uncatalogued information. Not one page dealt with plans. When I complained, they invited me to submit another FOIA request, saying that the first one had been closed out already. I declined their offer.

Clearly, they didn’t have a plan. Except to force the City to assume responsibility for dredging. The Corps and FEMA felt that if the City had done maintenance dredging years ago, the problem would not have become acute.

Since October of last year, the two sides (City and Corps/FEMA) have been playing a political ping pong match, each trying to get the other to dredge.

Post Script: Dredging Update

When contractors finished dredging 500,000 cubic yards from the mouth bar around Labor Day this year, they waited patiently for local authorities to come up with their own plan. Callan Marine got tired of waiting first. Their dredge was last seen weeks ago heading south on 59 in pieces on flatbed trucks.

Great Lakes Dredge and Dock had a dredge anchored at the mouth bar for six weeks. However, today, their dredge and booster pumps have been pulled back to the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge.

A crane is dismantling the dredge enough to get it under the bridge and back to the command post. Great Lakes is demobilizing. That will leave no dredging equipment in the river.

As of Friday afternoon, according to Stephen Costello, the City filed another request with FEMA. The request was reportedly to allow the City to apply $9 million left over from its debris clean up budget from Harvey to additional debris removal. Unfortunately, going by past experience, remobilizing a dredging effort will cost far more than that.

Ironically, this latest development comes almost a year to the day after the so-called “Everybody-but-Trump” meeting in Austin. At that meeting, according to Houston City Council Member Dave Martin, both sides reached an agreement in principle to dredge the mouth bar.

Learn More at Town Hall Meeting This Thursday

It will be interesting to see what the City announces at its October Town Hall Meeting at the Kingwood Community Center this Thursday.

Be there. 6:30 PM. On the agenda:

  • Mayor Turner
  • Council Member Dave Martin
  • Stephen Costello, the City’s flood czar, to talk about dredging and dam improvements
  • SJRA’s Chuck Gilman to talk about status of the regional watershed study
  • Public Works and Coastal Water Authority to talk about dam repairs and lower lake levels for the next year
  • Houston Parks Board to talk about an extension of their Bayou Greenways Program south of Hamblen
  • And more

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/14/2019, with thanks to Tim Garfield and RD Kissling

776 Days since Hurricane Harvey

City To Host Meeting Tuesday, 6:30, At Kingwood Community Center for Homeowners Who Suffered Repetitive Flood Damage

This post is for all those unfortunate people who have suffered repetitive flood damage. Learn how you may qualify for federal assistance to elevate your home.

On Tuesday, October 15, at 6:30 p.m., the City of Houston will host a meeting about mitigation grant assistance for repetitive flood-damaged properties at the Kingwood Community Center.

The community center is at 4102 Rustic Woods, Kingwood, TX 77345 on the corner of West Lake Houston Parkway, near the Kingwood Park ‘N Ride.

Properties may qualify for Federal Emergency Management Assistance (FEMA) funding for structure elevation.

Many families in Elm Grove who flooded in May also flooded in September and should explore the options in this meeting. Regardless of where you live in the City, if your home has flooded at least twice, you may be eligible to have your home elevated.

Homeowners can speak with the City regarding options. To quality, property owners must:

  • Hold a National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policy.
  • Reside within Houston city limits.
  • Have flooded at least twice.

Below is more information.

Information about Tuesday’s meeting
Info About the Program.

Please submit the voluntary interest form available here

Thanks to Houston City Council Member Dave Martin for setting this up.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/13/2019

775 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 24 since Imelda