The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun advisories on Tropical Depression 8 in the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island including Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Recent model guidance brings the system to the Texas coast with 48-60 hours over the Gulf waters. Some show the system over Gulf water for 72 hours as the system slows near the coast. NHC forecasts a 45mph tropical storm slamming the middle Texas coast on Saturday.
Houston should be on the dirty side of the storm.
If this does reach tropical-storm strength, it would be named Hannah. Ironically, another H storm hit Houston called Harvey in 2017. But Harvey happened a full month LATER in the season.
Next USAF reconnaissance flight will depart at 4:45 a.m. CDT tomorrow morning and will determine if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.
Source: NHC
Rainfall
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, says predicted rainfall rates have increased. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible along and generally south of HWY 105 with higher isolated totals. North of HWY 105 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible. There is likely to be swaths of higher rainfall amounts where training bands develop, but where this may occur is difficult to pinpoint at this time range.
Channel 13 tonight predicts that some areas west of Houston could record a three day total of 14-15 inches of rain because of the slow speed of the storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020 at 10:30 p.m.
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/image001-4.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-07-22 22:28:492020-07-22 22:48:27Tropical Storm Predicted to Make Landfall on Saturday; Rainfall Estimates Increased
Several deadlines are converging to force a decision on whether to purchase Woodridge Village from Perry Homes and turn it into a giant regional detention pond. Every day that passes makes that deal appear more remote for reasons I will discuss below. Luckily, Elm Grove residents have an option, which I will discuss at the end of this post. But first…
Deadline #1: Detention Ponds Nearing Completion
Contractors for Perry Homes have nearly finished all detention ponds on the site. Last week, they were cementing drainage pipes and pilot channels in place.
Gray is the lawyer for Figure Four Partners, Perry’s development subsidiary. In the letter, Gray promised the last item would be completed in 280 days. 280 days from the date of the letter (October 17th, 2019) is July 24 – this coming Friday.
Perry has said that it would not start building homes and roads until they finished work on detention ponds. With that work done, how much longer will they delay?
Deadline #2: 75 Days from County’s Redefining of Deal
Last week, Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin addressed the Kingwood Executive Group. He said that after the May 19th Commissioners Court meeting in which Commissioners redefined the terms of the purchase, Perry sent a letter saying “you have 75 days or we will sell the property.”
The next Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting is July 28th. They don’t meet again until August 11. Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle is placing an item on the agenda for next Tuesday to discuss the status of the purchase.
Deadline #4: Perry Says It Has Offer Waiting in Wings
At the same meeting of Kingwood executives, Mr. Martin reported that Perry said it had an offer to buy the property. But he also questioned how firm the offer could be, given all the pending litigation.
Deadline #5: Peak of Storm Season Approaching
Nature always gets the last say. Nature could make everyone involved in this deal look bad if Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest flood again.
We’re now approaching the peak of hurricane season. Beginning in August, storms start to build rapidly. They peak on September 10. See below.
Number of Storms by Date for the last hundred years. Source: NOAA
We have two storms approaching now. One south of Louisiana. The other still in the mid-Atlantic.
Based on satellite and surface observations, a broad surface low pressure center has formed with the tropical wave moving into the central Gulf of Mexico. NHC has increased the chance of formation to 80% and advised that watches and/or warnings could be issued for portions of the TX and LA coast tonight or on Thursday.
Overall, says the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the organization of the system off the Texas coast is increasing and it is likely that a tropical depression or storm will form in the next day or two as the system moves generally toward the WNW around 10mph.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist predicts it “could drop 1-3 inches with isolated totals of 4-6 inches. Heaviest rains may end up close to the coast, say south of a line from High Island to Wharton. There’s still much uncertainty, although visible images this morning show a better organized system in the Gulf.”
Latest satellite images show storm in Gulf building.Gonzalo, the Atlantic storm now looks like it will track into the Caribbean by Sunday and turn into a hurricane.
The second storm intensified this morning and was given the name Gonzalo. According to Lindner, Gonzalo may weaken as it moves across the Caribbean Sea if it encounters wind shear. So forecasters have low confidence in intensity predictions. However, “small systems such as Gonzalo can have rapid fluctuations in intensity,” says Lindner. And most models agree on the path.”
Nature, as they say in poker, could soon call everyone’s hand.
However, widening and deepening Taylor Gully could take some time. And there is intense competition for resources right now. That option could not be constructed in time to head off storms for this hurricane season. So keep your fingers crossed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 307 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20200712-DJI_0035.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-07-22 14:40:392020-07-22 15:00:30Deadlines Converging on Woodridge Deal; Option If Purchase Falls Through
Due to Covid, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) Board of Directors will hold its regular board meeting via webinar Thursday morning. Start time is 8 a.m. One of the more interesting things on the agenda is a first peak at the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan. Chuck Gilman, SJRA Director of Water Resources and Flood Management, says that Halff & Associates will provide a high level summary of the results and recommendations.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
If you choose to participate via the GoToWebinar App, you WILL have the opportunity to provide comments during the designated portion of the meeting.
You can also LISTEN to the meeting via a telephone conference call, but you will NOT have the opportunity to provide comments if you choose this option. Only webinar participants may comment.
Telephone conference call phone number: 415-655-0052 and the audio access code is 882-885-021.
AGENDA
These meetings can run several hours. For folks who may not be able to see the whole meeting, but want to see the drainage plan presentation, here’s the full agenda. SJRA can not predict when the master drainage plan presentation will start.
1. CALL TO ORDER
2. PUBLIC COMMENTS (3 minutes per speaker)
3. DIVISION UPDATES – Receive updates from Operational Divisions and General & Administration Division related to ongoing projects, staff reports, or items on the consent agenda.
G & A: Jace Houston, General Manager
G & A: Heather Ramsey Cook, Director of Communications and Public Affairs
G & A: Tom Michel, Director of Finance and Administration
Woodlands: Chris Meeks, Utility Enterprise O&M Manager
GRP: Chris Meeks, Utility Enterprise O&M Manager
Lake Conroe: Bret Raley, Lake Conroe Division Manager
Highlands: Jay Smith, Highlands Division Manager
Flood Management: Chuck Gilman, Director of Water Resources and Flood Management
4. CONSENT AGENDA – This agenda consists of ministerial or “housekeeping” items required by law, such as routine bids, contracts, purchases, resolutions, and orders; items previously approved by Board action, such as adoption of items that are part of an approved budget or capital improvement projects, interlocal agreements, or action which is required by law or delegated to the General Manager; and items of a non-controversial nature. These items will be considered by a single motion unless removed and placed on the Regular Agenda for individual consideration at the request of any Director.
G&A
RAW WATER ENTERPRISE
5. REGULAR AGENDA
Items requiring individual consideration by the Board of Directors.
G&A
Resolution Adopting Policies and Procedures Related to Contracting with Historically Underutilized Businesses (HUBs)
RAW WATER ENTERPRISE
Amended and Restated Water Conveyance Contract with Coastal Water Authority
Ratify Contract for Time and Materials Services with Masters Advanced Remediation Service, Inc.
6. BRIEFINGS AND PRESENTATIONS
Presentation regarding the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan Project.
Presentation regarding the Fiscal Year 2021 Operating Budgets.
Presentation regarding the proposed Rate Order for Raw Water Customers.
Presentation regarding the proposed Rate Order for Woodlands Division Customers.
7. EXECUTIVE SESSION (Not open to public)
Consultations with attorney regarding:
Litigation related to Hurricane Harvey, including additional legal services to be provided by Hunton Andrews Kurth, LLP;
Litigation related to GRP water line breaks (Line Segments W2A and W2B); and
Expedited Declaratory Judgement Act litigation and other litigation related to GRP.
8. RECONVENE in Open Session
9. SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT for Lawsuit with Various Parties Associated with GRP Transmission Line Segments W2A and W2B
10. ANNOUNCEMENTS / FUTURE AGENDA
11. ADJOURN
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Overview_8x11_4_30_2019-1-e1563798772703.jpg?fit=850%2C1100&ssl=11100850adminadmin2020-07-22 09:44:352020-07-22 09:50:39SJRA to Offer First Peak at Master Drainage Study Results Thursday Morning
Tropical Storm Predicted to Make Landfall on Saturday; Rainfall Estimates Increased
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun advisories on Tropical Depression 8 in the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island including Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Recent model guidance brings the system to the Texas coast with 48-60 hours over the Gulf waters. Some show the system over Gulf water for 72 hours as the system slows near the coast. NHC forecasts a 45mph tropical storm slamming the middle Texas coast on Saturday.
Houston should be on the dirty side of the storm.
If this does reach tropical-storm strength, it would be named Hannah. Ironically, another H storm hit Houston called Harvey in 2017. But Harvey happened a full month LATER in the season.
Next USAF reconnaissance flight will depart at 4:45 a.m. CDT tomorrow morning and will determine if a tropical depression or tropical storm has formed.
Rainfall
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, says predicted rainfall rates have increased. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible along and generally south of HWY 105 with higher isolated totals. North of HWY 105 rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible. There is likely to be swaths of higher rainfall amounts where training bands develop, but where this may occur is difficult to pinpoint at this time range.
Channel 13 tonight predicts that some areas west of Houston could record a three day total of 14-15 inches of rain because of the slow speed of the storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020 at 10:30 p.m.
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Deadlines Converging on Woodridge Deal; Option If Purchase Falls Through
Several deadlines are converging to force a decision on whether to purchase Woodridge Village from Perry Homes and turn it into a giant regional detention pond. Every day that passes makes that deal appear more remote for reasons I will discuss below. Luckily, Elm Grove residents have an option, which I will discuss at the end of this post. But first…
Deadline #1: Detention Ponds Nearing Completion
Contractors for Perry Homes have nearly finished all detention ponds on the site. Last week, they were cementing drainage pipes and pilot channels in place.
Contractors also appeared to be building drainage swales designed to intercept runoff and channel it toward the detention ponds.
These swales were Item #6 on J. Carey Gray’s 10/17/19 letter to the City of Houston Attorney, Ronald Lewis.
Gray is the lawyer for Figure Four Partners, Perry’s development subsidiary. In the letter, Gray promised the last item would be completed in 280 days. 280 days from the date of the letter (October 17th, 2019) is July 24 – this coming Friday.
Perry has said that it would not start building homes and roads until they finished work on detention ponds. With that work done, how much longer will they delay?
Deadline #2: 75 Days from County’s Redefining of Deal
Last week, Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin addressed the Kingwood Executive Group. He said that after the May 19th Commissioners Court meeting in which Commissioners redefined the terms of the purchase, Perry sent a letter saying “you have 75 days or we will sell the property.”
The City applied for a grant from the TWDB to help pay for its half of the purchase/construction costs. However, the TDWB doesn’t expect to finalize decisions on those until this winter.
Deadline #3: Upcoming Commissioners Court Meeting
The next Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting is July 28th. They don’t meet again until August 11. Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle is placing an item on the agenda for next Tuesday to discuss the status of the purchase.
Deadline #4: Perry Says It Has Offer Waiting in Wings
At the same meeting of Kingwood executives, Mr. Martin reported that Perry said it had an offer to buy the property. But he also questioned how firm the offer could be, given all the pending litigation.
Deadline #5: Peak of Storm Season Approaching
Nature always gets the last say. Nature could make everyone involved in this deal look bad if Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest flood again.
We’re now approaching the peak of hurricane season. Beginning in August, storms start to build rapidly. They peak on September 10. See below.
We have two storms approaching now. One south of Louisiana. The other still in the mid-Atlantic.
Overall, says the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the organization of the system off the Texas coast is increasing and it is likely that a tropical depression or storm will form in the next day or two as the system moves generally toward the WNW around 10mph.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist predicts it “could drop 1-3 inches with isolated totals of 4-6 inches. Heaviest rains may end up close to the coast, say south of a line from High Island to Wharton. There’s still much uncertainty, although visible images this morning show a better organized system in the Gulf.”
The second storm intensified this morning and was given the name Gonzalo. According to Lindner, Gonzalo may weaken as it moves across the Caribbean Sea if it encounters wind shear. So forecasters have low confidence in intensity predictions. However, “small systems such as Gonzalo can have rapid fluctuations in intensity,” says Lindner. And most models agree on the path.”
Nature, as they say in poker, could soon call everyone’s hand.
Option if Deal Does Not Happen
The amount of detention that Perry has built is 40% short of Atlas 14 guidelines for this area. What happens if the Woodridge Village purchase falls through? Is it the end of Elm Grove? Not necessarily.
However, widening and deepening Taylor Gully could take some time. And there is intense competition for resources right now. That option could not be constructed in time to head off storms for this hurricane season. So keep your fingers crossed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 307 since Imelda
SJRA to Offer First Peak at Master Drainage Study Results Thursday Morning
Due to Covid, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) Board of Directors will hold its regular board meeting via webinar Thursday morning. Start time is 8 a.m. One of the more interesting things on the agenda is a first peak at the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan. Chuck Gilman, SJRA Director of Water Resources and Flood Management, says that Halff & Associates will provide a high level summary of the results and recommendations.
Master Drainage Plan Goals
The San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan goals include:
The study covers more than 3000 square miles!
The four partners in the project include Harris County Flood Control, SJRA, Montgomery County and City of Houston.
This web site explains the study in more detail, but not the results. At least not yet. The final report should be published in a month or two.
How to Attend the Virtual Meeting
You have to options to “attend” the meeting: webinar or telephone conference call.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
If you choose to participate via the GoToWebinar App, you WILL have the opportunity to provide comments during the designated portion of the meeting.
You can also LISTEN to the meeting via a telephone conference call, but you will NOT have the opportunity to provide comments if you choose this option. Only webinar participants may comment.
AGENDA
These meetings can run several hours. For folks who may not be able to see the whole meeting, but want to see the drainage plan presentation, here’s the full agenda. SJRA can not predict when the master drainage plan presentation will start.
1. CALL TO ORDER
2. PUBLIC COMMENTS (3 minutes per speaker)
3. DIVISION UPDATES – Receive updates from Operational Divisions and General & Administration Division related to ongoing projects, staff reports, or items on the consent agenda.
4. CONSENT AGENDA – This agenda consists of ministerial or “housekeeping” items required by law, such as routine bids, contracts, purchases, resolutions, and orders; items previously approved by Board action, such as adoption of items that are part of an approved budget or capital improvement projects, interlocal agreements, or action which is required by law or delegated to the General Manager; and items of a non-controversial nature. These items will be considered by a single motion unless removed and placed on the Regular Agenda for individual consideration at the request of any Director.
5. REGULAR AGENDA
Items requiring individual consideration by the Board of Directors.
G&A
RAW WATER ENTERPRISE
6. BRIEFINGS AND PRESENTATIONS
7. EXECUTIVE SESSION (Not open to public)
Consultations with attorney regarding:
8. RECONVENE in Open Session
9. SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT for Lawsuit with Various Parties Associated with GRP Transmission Line Segments W2A and W2B
10. ANNOUNCEMENTS / FUTURE AGENDA
11. ADJOURN
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2020
1058 Days since Hurricane Harvey