Don’t Let Your Guard Down Yet: “Winter Version of Hurricane Harvey”

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect along and north of US 59 through tonight

Cold temperatures – especially at night – will continue to result in infrastructure and human hardships

Another hard freeze is likely Friday morning

Abbott Dubs Storm “The Winter Version of Harvey”

Governor Greg Abbott is calling this “the winter version of Hurricane Harvey.” Back in 2017, Harvey ravaged various parts of Texas for five days. This series of storms will last just as long and affect even more people. Here’s what to expect for the second half of the week.

Two More Fronts Collide over Houston

A coastal low is forming south of Matagorda Bay and will progress NE toward Houston tonight into Wednesday. This will add moisture to the arctic cold dome over the region. As rain begins to fall, temperatures will also fall and dewpoints will rise.

Freeze Line Shifting Farther South That Previously Predicted

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “A “freeze line” should set up along and north of a line from roughly Matagorda Bay to Wharton to Pearland to Winnie. During the night this freezing line will begin to move northward slowly as warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico attempts to move inland. How far north this freezing line progresses is important as to what areas receive freezing rain and ice accumulation and what areas see plain rain.” 

Icicles formed in storms during last two days started to melt this afternoon. But temps will drop below freezing the the Lake Houston Area again tonight and more freezing precipitation is on the way.

The freezing line should slowly move north through the morning hours on Wednesday with freezing rain and ice transitioning to rain. “Expect the greatest ice accumulations to be found along and north of US 59/I-10 where temperatures will remain colder for the longest period of time,” says Lindner. 

Minor ice accumulations will be possible generally south of US 59 with accumulations of .10 to .25 of an inch generally north of US 59.

“Isolated amounts of .25-.50 will be possible mainly far to the north of Houston where a devastating ice storm is looking likely.” 

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Ice on Lines Another Threat to Unstable Power

These ice accumulations will likely result in some tree damage and power line damage over the region and hamper efforts to restore power generation.

Temperatures on Wednesday after mid to late morning will rise above freezing and any ice should begin to melt. Temperatures will fall below freezing again Wednesday night and Thursday morning and any water left on roadways will likely freeze again. 

Hard Freeze Likely Friday Morning with Temps in Teens Again

One final disturbance will cross the area early Thursday and there may be some light precipitation and will need to keep an eye on this feature on the next 24 hours. As this disturbance passes, another shot of cold arctic air will spread into the region resulting in another night of very cold temperatures on Friday morning. Temperatures will likely fall into the upper 10’s to mid-20’s yet again over the area.

This is bad news for people who have gone without power for days.

Abbott Calls For Investigation

More than 5 million people have suffered through temperatures in the low teens without power and Governor Greg Abbott is calling for ERCOT leadership to resign and for there to be an immediate investigation.

Centerpoint says it could be days longer before power is fully restored. So don’t let your guard up yet.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/16/2021 at 8 PM based on information provided by Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

1267 Days since Hurricane Harvey

More Bitter Cold This Morning, Freezing Rain Later Today

Wind Chill Warning Remains in Effect until Noon Today with Bitter Cold in Place.

Freezing rain likely north of US 59 tonight into early Wednesday with accumulations of ice

Travel conditions will deteriorate this evening into Wednesday morning

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening along and north of US 59

10 Degrees at 7AM

As of 6 AM, my thermometer in Kingwood reads 10 degrees. A very cold arctic air mass filtered into place overnight. Temperatures throughout the region now range from the low to mid teens and even colder north of Conroe. But the worst is almost over.

Conditions Later Tuesday

Temperatures will improve somewhat throughout the day, but that doesn’t mean the danger has passed. According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, another upper level storm system will quickly approach from the west today and collide with a coastal low. Moisture will move northward into the cold air mass and produce freezing rain. Expect the freezing line to extend from Matagorda Bay to Downtown Houston to Winnie tonight and then slowly move northward on Wednesday. The exact location of the freezing line at any given time remains uncertain. But it will affect the type of precipitation you get in different areas throughout the storm.

“Expect ice accumulations tonight along and north of US 59 of .05 to .15 of an inch,” said Lindner.” Again, the most significant impacts will be to bridges and overpasses. But impacts to trees and power lines are also possible – especially for areas that get closer to the .10-.15 amounts.”

Warmer Wednesday But More Rain, Possibly Freezing

As the freezing lines moves north on Wednesday during the day, it will likely reach a line from Columbus to The Woodlands to Liberty. Freezing rain will likely change to rain for the metro area. Areas along and north of HWY 105 may remain below freezing for the entire event. “Expect significant and potentially extremely damaging ice accumulations of ¼ to ¾ of an inch in those areas,” says Lindner.

The freezing line will then move back southward Wednesday evening. Much of the area, except for the coastal counties will likely fall back below freezing. Yet another disturbance will approach and could produce a final round of light sleet or snow over portions of the area Wednesday night/early Thursday. Any left over water on roads from the Wednesday rains will likely refreeze Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

For the complete National Weather Service Forecast, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/16/2021 at 7AM based on info by Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist and the NWS

1267 Days since Hurricane Harvey

NWS Issues Second Winter Storm Warning, Worse than First

As of 6 PM Monday, more than a million people in Harris County remain without power. And the National Weather Service has issued a second winter storm warning this week. It could be worse than the first. Expect more freezing precipitation and even colder temps. The warning lasts from midnight tonight until 6AM Thursday. Here are the headlines:

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FREEZING RAIN TO INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING

ROADS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS

Three Day Forecast

NWS predicts events will unfold as follows:

Dangerous Wind Chills tonight into Tuesday morning followed by two rounds of Winter Precipitation Tuesday night through early Thursday morning.

For tonight into Tuesday morning, record low temperatures in the single digits to lower teens combined with winds speeds up to 10 mph will result in dangerous wind chills of 5 above zero to 10 below zero.

Another storm system will bring two rounds of winter type precipitation Tuesday night through early Thursday morning. The first round Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will bring freezing rain. This will bring renewed accumulation of ice on roads, especially on roads that continue to have ice from earlier systems. For the first round, ice accumulations of 1/10 inch can be expected with localized accumulations of 1/4 inch possible.

The second round Wednesday night into early Thursday morning will bring a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible along with another ice accumulation of 1/10 inch.

Warnings

For Harris and surrounding counties in SE Texas:

WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY

WHAT

Bitterly cold air will continue filtering into the area and temperatures will remain well below freezing through most of Tuesday…and likely late into the week for locations further north from the coast.

Minimum wind chills will remain or fall below zero.

Freezing rain is expected to develop over the area Tuesday night and lift northward on Wednesday through the day. Additional light amounts of freezing rain may re-develop Wednesday night.

Ice accumulations will likely range from around a tenth of an inch across central areas to a quarter of an inch across northern areas.

WHEN

Wind Chill Warning through noon Tuesday.

Winter Storm Warning from Midnight Wednesday through 6 AM Thursday.

IMPACTS

Travel will continue to be very difficult through Tuesday morning with ice covered roads.

Power outages are ongoing.

The extremely low wind chills – below zero – will be life threatening to people and animals outside without adequate warmth or shelter! Another period of difficult travel due to ice is expected from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Source: National Weather Service

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org and at Houston TransStar.

Meaning of Warnings

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of ice are expected or occurring. A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and strong winds will create dangerously low wind chill values. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 6 PM on Monday, 2/15/2021 Based on Info from the National Weather Service

1266 Days after Hurricane Harvey