Each of those numbers falls within the ranges shown above by NHC.
Seventh Consecutive Above-Average Season
Heat Map showing variation from normal for May 24, 2022. Source: NOAA.Note higher than normal temps in Gulf, Atlantic and most of Caribbean.
If NOAA predictions prove true, 2022 would make the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a:
65% chance of an above-normal season
25% chance of a near-normal season
10% chance of a below-normal season.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
The 2022 hurricane outlook is not a “landfall forecast.”
NOAA Enhances Products and Services
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. emphasized that NOAA’s forecasting accuracy continues to improve. The agency has enhanced the following products and services this hurricane season:
The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) has been experimentally extended from three to five days of lead time. This will give people more notice of rainfall-related flash flooding risks from tropical storms and hurricanes. ERO forecasts the probability of intense rainfall that could lead to flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point.
In June, NOAA will enhance Peak Storm Surge Forecasts. Upgrades include color coding that illustrates the peak storm surge inundation forecast at the coast.
Start Preparing Now
FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said, “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now.” Some tips:
Visit Ready.gov for preparedness tips on what to do before, during and after a flood.
Have several ways to receive alerts.
Download the FEMA app and receive real-time alerts from the National Weather Service for up to five locations nationwide.
Sign up for community alerts in your area and be aware of the Emergency Alert System (EAS) and Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA), which require no sign up.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/25/22 based on information from the National Hurricane Center and Ready.Gov
1730 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/20220525-Screen-Shot-2022-05-25-at-11.23.28-AM.jpg?fit=1200%2C757&ssl=17571200adminadmin2022-05-25 11:44:502022-05-25 11:44:53NHC Predicts Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
A best practice in the construction industry is to build detention ponds before you clear all the land. In Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest, we saw what can happen when you don’t. Contractors cleared 277-acres before installing sufficient detention pond capacity. The result: hundreds of homes flooded needlessly. Twice. And silt poured into Taylor Gully which had to be excavated at public expense.
Staging Construction, Temporary Seeding, Mulching Not Used to Reduce Sedimentation
Harris County Stormwater Quality Management Regulations discourage clearcutting large sites all at once. See section 4.2.3.1, Stormwater Pollution Prevention (SWPPP) During Construction. The text states, “The clearing, grubbing and scalping (mass clearing or grading) of excessively large areas of land at one time promotes erosion and sedimentation problems. On the areas where disturbance takes place the site designer should consider staging construction [emphasis added], temporary seeding and/or temporary mulching as a technique to reduce erosion. Staging construction involves stabilizing one part of the site before disturbing another [emphasis added].“
But those rules don’t apply in Montgomery County. So you often see developers trying to build detention ponds as they build (or even after they build) the rest of the site.
Case in Point: Preserve at Woodridge
Such is the case at the Preserve at Woodridge…which promises “resort-style amenities.”
Preserve at Woodridge on 5/22/22. Eighty-five of 131 rental homes now under construction. That’s two thirds…before the detention pond is built.
Meanwhile, compare the detention ponds below. One is a white, chalky mess with dirt still piled around the edges. The other: pretty clean. Of course, residents pay to keep it that way.
Preserve at Woodridge is in bottom left and Woodridge Forest is in upper part of frame. Notice the difference in the water color in the detention ponds.Contractors have excavated additional dirt from the detention pond (mounded around edges and at left) to bring in clay to form a liner.
The sad part of this: downstream residents will pay the price. And because this is another development just north of the county line, that will be Kingwood. The last time, the developer pumped stormwater into the drainage ditch, the silt traveled miles down Ben’s Branch.
Why Bring In Clay?
I asked an expert in floodwater detention basin construction, why the developer would bring in clay? The answer: “To create a wet-bottom pond.” Developers sell those as residential amenities. I applaud that. But my point is this. Had they completed the detention pond first, it could have been growing grass to reduce sedimentation while they developed the rest of the property. That approach seemed to work well at the New Caney High School ISD West Fork High School.
The detention pond at the New Caney West Fork High School had already been mowed when they began pouring concrete. Photo from March 2021.
Lest you think I’m a MoCo basher, let me point out this. The detention pond above is also in MoCo.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/22
1729 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/20220522-DJI_0515.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2022-05-24 19:47:392022-05-24 19:51:36Why You Build Detention Ponds First
If flood risk still concerns you, remember to vote on Tuesday in the runoff election for Harris County Judge. Current Judge Lina Hidalgo has already won the Democratic primary. But two formidable competitors still vie for the Republican nomination.
At Stake: Shifting the Balance of Power in Commissioners Court
Winning the county judge position back represents the fastest way for Republicans to swing the balance of power in Commissioners Court.
Right now, Harris County has three Democrats and two Republicans. The Democrats vote as a block on virtually every topic in every meeting. That power has shifted massive amounts of flood mitigation money to their inner city strongholds away from outlying neighborhoods.
Flood loss map of Harris County updated after Hurricane Harvey: Source MaapNext.org. This map shows where all flooding claims have occurred throughout the county since 1978.
This massive shift in funding comes in the name of “equity.” But less than one thousandth of one percent hardly seems equitable. That’s right, the Lake Houston Area gets 0.0008% of total flood-mitigation construction spending. That’s not equity! That’s hijacking.
Commissioner Rodney Ellis constantly tells his constituents that Kingwood gets all the money and that poorer neighborhoods get none. In reality, low-to-moderate income watersheds (one third of all watersheds) have received almost two thirds of all Flood Control spending since 2000.
Garcia also tried to cancel $191 million of flood-mitigation projects in the Cedar Bayou watershed and shift the money to areas inside his newly redrawn Precinct 2.
As a result, it takes longer to get things done. Case in point, the Community Flood Resilience Task Force requested data that would show the level of risk in each watershed more than a year ago. Now we’re told, we probably won’t see it until after the election.
Republicans Put Up Two Strong Competitors in Runoff
So, for whom should you vote for County Judge if you’re a Republican?
Republics have two excellent candidates: Alexandra del Moral Mealer and Vidal Martinez.
Mealer is a West Point graduate who commanded a bomb squad in Afghanistan. After serving her country, she earned MBA and law degrees from Harvard before going into banking. She structured billion-dollar, oil-and-gas deals as a VP for one of the nation’s largest banks. She and her husband have two young children.
Martinez has one of the most enviable resumes you will ever see. He, too, has a law degree. Martinez has been on the board of Methodist Hospital for three decades. He also served as a federal prosecutor, a Port Authority Commissioner and UH regent. And because he has been around longer, he knows all the players in Harris County politics.
Alexandra del Moral Mealer (left) and Vidal Martinez (right), candidates in Republic runoff election for Harris County Judge.
Both have an impressive list of endorsements. Both see crime and flooding as major issues.
In the primary, Mealer had more votes. She received 50,000 to Martinez’ 44,000. But the race had seven other people in the running.
Can Either Beat Hidalgo?
As the incumbent, Hidalgo easily won her party’s nomination in March with 114,000 votes. But that doesn’t mean Hidalgo is a shoe-in come November. The Republican vote was split nine ways in March. Note, however, that 10,000 more people voted for a Republican Judge candidate than a Democratic one.
Hidalgo received 595,000 votes to Emmett’s 575,000. So, she won by 20,000 votes. But out of her 595,000, 105,000 were straight ticket votes, which are no longer allowed.
Also consider that Hidalgo’s administration has been plagued by crime, cronyism, waste and scandals. She will have an uphill battle in November.
Which Issues Are Most Important to You?
I can’t tell you whom to vote for. The decision is complex. Different people have different priorities. I’ve had a chance to spend two to three hours one-on-one with each candidate.
Both feel solid. Both are brilliant. And both are straight shooters. It’s a shame that so much of the advertising in this race has gone negative. That can only damage Republican chances in November.
If flooding remains one of your highest priorities, here are interviews with each of the Republican candidates on that topic.
Just make sure you vote Tuesday, if you did not vote early already.
Remember: if you didn’t vote in the primary in March, you can still vote in the runoff. But if you did vote in March, you must vote in the same party’s runoff.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/22
1728 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AlexVidal.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2022-05-23 15:11:412022-05-23 18:28:36Editorial: Last Day for Runoff Voting Tuesday
NHC Predicts Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
On May 24, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. NHC expects an above-average hurricane season for the seventh year in a row. They say an ongoing La Niña and above-average sea surface temperatures set the stage for a busy season. NHC’s predictions reinforce the forecast issued last month by Colorado State University.
In case you missed that post, CSU predicted:
Each of those numbers falls within the ranges shown above by NHC.
Seventh Consecutive Above-Average Season
If NOAA predictions prove true, 2022 would make the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a:
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
The 2022 hurricane outlook is not a “landfall forecast.”
NOAA Enhances Products and Services
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. emphasized that NOAA’s forecasting accuracy continues to improve. The agency has enhanced the following products and services this hurricane season:
Start Preparing Now
FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said, “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now.” Some tips:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/25/22 based on information from the National Hurricane Center and Ready.Gov
1730 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Why You Build Detention Ponds First
A best practice in the construction industry is to build detention ponds before you clear all the land. In Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest, we saw what can happen when you don’t. Contractors cleared 277-acres before installing sufficient detention pond capacity. The result: hundreds of homes flooded needlessly. Twice. And silt poured into Taylor Gully which had to be excavated at public expense.
Staging Construction, Temporary Seeding, Mulching Not Used to Reduce Sedimentation
Harris County Stormwater Quality Management Regulations discourage clearcutting large sites all at once. See section 4.2.3.1, Stormwater Pollution Prevention (SWPPP) During Construction. The text states, “The clearing, grubbing and scalping (mass clearing or grading) of excessively large areas of land at one time promotes erosion and sedimentation problems. On the areas where disturbance takes place the site designer should consider staging construction [emphasis added], temporary seeding and/or temporary mulching as a technique to reduce erosion. Staging construction involves stabilizing one part of the site before disturbing another [emphasis added].“
But those rules don’t apply in Montgomery County. So you often see developers trying to build detention ponds as they build (or even after they build) the rest of the site.
Case in Point: Preserve at Woodridge
Such is the case at the Preserve at Woodridge…which promises “resort-style amenities.”
Plans show that more houses will go in on the right.
Meanwhile, compare the detention ponds below. One is a white, chalky mess with dirt still piled around the edges. The other: pretty clean. Of course, residents pay to keep it that way.
The sad part of this: downstream residents will pay the price. And because this is another development just north of the county line, that will be Kingwood. The last time, the developer pumped stormwater into the drainage ditch, the silt traveled miles down Ben’s Branch.
Why Bring In Clay?
I asked an expert in floodwater detention basin construction, why the developer would bring in clay? The answer: “To create a wet-bottom pond.” Developers sell those as residential amenities. I applaud that. But my point is this. Had they completed the detention pond first, it could have been growing grass to reduce sedimentation while they developed the rest of the property. That approach seemed to work well at the New Caney High School ISD West Fork High School.
Lest you think I’m a MoCo basher, let me point out this. The detention pond above is also in MoCo.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/22
1729 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Editorial: Last Day for Runoff Voting Tuesday
If flood risk still concerns you, remember to vote on Tuesday in the runoff election for Harris County Judge. Current Judge Lina Hidalgo has already won the Democratic primary. But two formidable competitors still vie for the Republican nomination.
At Stake: Shifting the Balance of Power in Commissioners Court
Winning the county judge position back represents the fastest way for Republicans to swing the balance of power in Commissioners Court.
Right now, Harris County has three Democrats and two Republicans. The Democrats vote as a block on virtually every topic in every meeting. That power has shifted massive amounts of flood mitigation money to their inner city strongholds away from outlying neighborhoods.
Lack of Equity Seen in Flood-Mitigation Spending
For instance, Harris County Flood Control District currently has $226,000,000 in active capital improvement projects underway. But only $2,000 of that total is currently deployed in the Lake Houston Area. Yet historically, Lake Houston has been one of the most heavily flood-damaged parts of the county.
This massive shift in funding comes in the name of “equity.” But less than one thousandth of one percent hardly seems equitable. That’s right, the Lake Houston Area gets 0.0008% of total flood-mitigation construction spending. That’s not equity! That’s hijacking.
Commissioner Rodney Ellis constantly tells his constituents that Kingwood gets all the money and that poorer neighborhoods get none. In reality, low-to-moderate income watersheds (one third of all watersheds) have received almost two thirds of all Flood Control spending since 2000.
Commissioner Adrian Garcia wants to fix 500-year flooding in poor neighborhoods before 2-year flooding in more affluent neighborhoods.
Garcia also tried to cancel $191 million of flood-mitigation projects in the Cedar Bayou watershed and shift the money to areas inside his newly redrawn Precinct 2.
The three Democrats have run off the heads of 20 out of 24 Harris County Departments. Their hatchet men have also run off multiple layers of management underneath the heads, leaving much of the county rudderless.
As a result, it takes longer to get things done. Case in point, the Community Flood Resilience Task Force requested data that would show the level of risk in each watershed more than a year ago. Now we’re told, we probably won’t see it until after the election.
Republicans Put Up Two Strong Competitors in Runoff
So, for whom should you vote for County Judge if you’re a Republican?
Republics have two excellent candidates: Alexandra del Moral Mealer and Vidal Martinez.
Mealer is a West Point graduate who commanded a bomb squad in Afghanistan. After serving her country, she earned MBA and law degrees from Harvard before going into banking. She structured billion-dollar, oil-and-gas deals as a VP for one of the nation’s largest banks. She and her husband have two young children.
Martinez has one of the most enviable resumes you will ever see. He, too, has a law degree. Martinez has been on the board of Methodist Hospital for three decades. He also served as a federal prosecutor, a Port Authority Commissioner and UH regent. And because he has been around longer, he knows all the players in Harris County politics.
Both have an impressive list of endorsements. Both see crime and flooding as major issues.
In the primary, Mealer had more votes. She received 50,000 to Martinez’ 44,000. But the race had seven other people in the running.
Can Either Beat Hidalgo?
As the incumbent, Hidalgo easily won her party’s nomination in March with 114,000 votes. But that doesn’t mean Hidalgo is a shoe-in come November. The Republican vote was split nine ways in March. Note, however, that 10,000 more people voted for a Republican Judge candidate than a Democratic one.
In the 2018 election for county judge, Hidalgo won 49.8% of the votes compared to Ed Emmett’s 48.2%.
Hidalgo received 595,000 votes to Emmett’s 575,000. So, she won by 20,000 votes. But out of her 595,000, 105,000 were straight ticket votes, which are no longer allowed.
Also consider that Hidalgo’s administration has been plagued by crime, cronyism, waste and scandals. She will have an uphill battle in November.
Which Issues Are Most Important to You?
I can’t tell you whom to vote for. The decision is complex. Different people have different priorities. I’ve had a chance to spend two to three hours one-on-one with each candidate.
Both feel solid. Both are brilliant. And both are straight shooters. It’s a shame that so much of the advertising in this race has gone negative. That can only damage Republican chances in November.
If flooding remains one of your highest priorities, here are interviews with each of the Republican candidates on that topic.
Just make sure you vote Tuesday, if you did not vote early already.
Remember: if you didn’t vote in the primary in March, you can still vote in the runoff. But if you did vote in March, you must vote in the same party’s runoff.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/22
1728 Days since Hurricane Harvey