NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issues a monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary during hurricane season. For June 2023, it shows above normal tropical cyclone activity and and above normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
#4 for Year and Counting
Three named tropical storms (Arlene, Bret, and Cindy) formed in the basin during June. The report also shows an unnamed storm in January, that in retrospect appears to have been tropical in strength.
Bret brought tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, while Arlene and Cindy remained over open water and did not impact land.
So far, seasonal activity has been above average based on the 30-year climatology (1991-2020), where a named storm typically forms about once every year in June.
Timing of hurricanes in the last hundred years shows peak at September 10.
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin so far in 2023 has also been above average compared to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
* An unnamed subtropical storm formed in mid January. Exact dates and maximum winds will be provided once the post-storm analysis is complete.
As of this writing on 7/5/23, NHC predicts NO tropical storm activity anywhere in the Atlantic basin for the next seven days.
Predictions Vs. Actual
In May, both NHC and Colorado State University predicted that this tropical storm season would have about normal hurricane activity. Both sources cited conflicting trends as the basis for their predictions. We currently have above-normal sea-surface temperatures throughout most of the Atlantic basin. We also are now under the influence of an El Niño, which tends, in this latitude, to produce wind shear that discourages cyclone formation.
To improve predictions, NOAA has made a number of changes in reporting at the National Hurricane Center. They include new, improved models for hurricane forecasts and storm surge, longer-range hurricane outlooks, an excessive rainfall outlook, inundation mapping down to the street level, and improved data-collection technologies.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/5/2023
2136 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/peakofseason.gif?fit=831%2C546&ssl=1546831adminadmin2023-07-05 10:32:132023-07-05 10:32:14Hurricane Season Above Average So Far
The 2023 legislature scorecard, just five years after Hurricane Harvey, shows that flooding is fast becoming forgotten in Texas. Of the seven issues I tracked, the Lake Houston Area had two wins, four losses, and one that could be ruled a coin toss depending on your point of view.
Due to last minute heroics, HB 1 contained enough money earmarked for more gates to keep the project alive. A last minute phone-call campaign by hundreds of citizens making thousands of phone calls to key state legislators in the House and Senate succeeded in getting riders attached to the budget bill.
Few projects have inspired more hope among residents in the northeastern part of Harris County than the one to add more floodgates to the Lake Houston Dam. The Lake Houston Area Flood Task Force identified the project as one of the top priorities for the area.
The idea: to release water both earlier and faster in advance of major storms to create more storage in Lake Houston. Right now, Lake Conroe can release water 15 times faster than Lake Houston. And the release from Lake Conroe during Harvey was widely seen as one of the contributing factors to the flooding of so many homes and businesses in the Lake Houston Area.
The governor signed HB 1 on 6/18/23. It becomes effective on 9/1/23. With funding secured, Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin says final design on the gates is proceeding.
The TCEQ was under sunset review this year. No one proposed eliminating the TCEQ. But many people had ideas to improve it. They focused on two main areas: increasing transparency and improving enforcement.
The Sunset Commission recommended measures to improve public outreach, public notices, community input, and dissemination of public information, including the publication of best practices for sand mining.
The Commission also recommended updating the TCEQ’s enforcement practices to better focus on the riskiest actors and ensure staff treat potential violations consistently and based on severity.
These companion bills would have transformed the Harris County Flood Control District into the Gulf Coast Resiliency District. The new District would have been governed by a board appointed by the Governor instead of management hired by Harris County Commissioners.
The idea: to create regional solutions that benefitted all residents of Harris County, not just those that scored high on an equity formula.
The County fought the bill(s) tooth and nail. Each failed to get out of committee.
The bill died in the House Natural Resources committee. It never even got a public hearing.
This bill would have required sand mining companies to post financial surety that would guarantee cleanup of mines before they were abandoned. Abandoned mines on both the San Jacinto East and West Forks are littered with the remains of once thriving operations. But when the sand played out, the miners walked away, leaving a legacy of blight for the public to clean up.
Abandoned dredge in mine on North Houston Ave. in Humble.Property is unfenced so kids can play on equipment.
HB5341: Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District
This bill also died in the House Natural Resources committee. House Bill 5341 would have created a Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District. Its purpose would be to remove sediment, debris, sand, and gravel from Lake Houston and its tributaries to restore, maintain, and expand the Lake to mitigate storm flows.
This bill died in the Senate Finance committee. Senate Bill 1366 would have redirected surplus revenue from the economic stabilization fund to the Flood Infrastructure Fund. The State’s Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) has turned into one of the main sources of funding for Texas Water Development Board grants and one of the main ways that smaller counties and cities can fund flood projects.
HB 1540 passed. The bill implements reforms recommended by the Sunset Review Committee for the the San Jacinto River Authority. Many of those are good and needed reforms. They include provisions governing:
Gubernatorial designation of the presiding officer of SJRA’s board of directors;
Specific grounds for removal of a board member;
Board member training;
Separation of the board’s policy-making responsibilities and the staff’s managementresponsibilities;
Maintenance of complaint information; and
Public testimony at board meetings.
Approval should have been a rubber stamp. But at the last minute, Rep. Will Metcalf from Conroe offered an amendment that effectively fired Jace Houston, SJRA’s general manager and leader of the SJRA’s fight to reduce subsidence. The amended bill passed the Senate. Houston resigned effective 6/30/23. And now the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District has no one to challenge unlimited groundwater pumping in Montgomery County.
Some in the Lake Houston Area who flooded during Harvey may rejoice at Houston’s departure. But differential subsidence is tilting Lake Houston upstream. It could make the Lake Houston Dam two feet higher relative to areas upstream near the county line. That could eliminate the safety margin above the floodplain for many homes in the next big flood.
Modeling shows 3 feet of subsidence near Harris/Montgomery county line, but only one foot at Lake Houston Dam.
As someone who had floodwater lapping at his foundation, I personally would put this one in the loss column.
The governor signed the bill on 6/18/23. It goes into effect on 9/1/2023.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/2/23
2133 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
At the end of June, stormwater detention basin excavation on Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Woodridge Village property reached 92% of Atlas-14 requirements. When HCFCD bought the property from Perry Homes in 2021, it had only 70% of the required detention capacity under Atlas 14.
Atlas-14 defines the current standard for safely containing a 100-year rainfall. The lack of detention basin capacity contributed to the flooding of hundreds of homes along Taylor Gully twice in 2019, after Perry contractors clearcut the property.
The first photo below was taken at the beginning of June 2023 so you can see how much progress has been made in the last month.
Looking ENE. Extent of Excavation on June 4, 2023
The second shows the site at the beginning of July 2023. The primary changes seem to be additional depth and length.
July 1, 2023 photo shows additional depth at far end of project.
HCFCD spokesperson Amy Crouser said that, “Essentially, the contractor is free to excavate where they want within the provided footprint.”
Green area indicates rough outline of new basin.
Where Does Woodridge Village Excavation Go From Here?
HCFCD’s Excavation and Removal contract with Sprint Sand & Clay calls for excavating up to 500,000 cubic yards. Sprint excavated approximately another 8,000 cubic yards in June. That equals approximately 5 acre feet.
If Sprint keeps excavating at that rate, the table below shows that it could reach Atlas 14 requirements by the end of this year.
However, Sprint’s contract calls for excavating UP TO 500,000 cubic yards. Any excavation beyond Atlas-14 needs would create a safety hedge against future needs should they increase.
Calculations based on original construction plans, HCFCD monthly reports, Atlas-14 Requirements and Sprint contract.
Sprint could excavate down to or even slightly past the small grove of trees in the top center. Photo taken July 1, 2023.
Sprint will make only $1,000 from its Woodridge Village excavation contract with HCFCD, but will make its profit by selling the dirt at market rates. It’s a good deal for taxpayers, but carries some uncertainty with it.
If the demand for dirt dries up and excavation slows, HCFCD and Sprint could modify the E&R contract to complete a smaller detention basin sooner. But I assume it would still meet Atlas 14 requirements at a minimum.
But simply excavating the dirt isn’t the end of the job. Harris County still needs to slope the sides, plant grass, and tie the new basin into the site’s existing stormwater-detention-basin network. Engineers are reportedly working on plans for all that, according to HCFCD.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/2023
2132 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/20230701-DJI_0022.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-07-01 12:34:532023-07-01 19:33:34Woodridge Village Excavation Reached 92% of Atlas-14 Requirements in June
Hurricane Season Above Average So Far
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issues a monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary during hurricane season. For June 2023, it shows above normal tropical cyclone activity and and above normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
#4 for Year and Counting
Three named tropical storms (Arlene, Bret, and Cindy) formed in the basin during June. The report also shows an unnamed storm in January, that in retrospect appears to have been tropical in strength.
Bret brought tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, while Arlene and Cindy remained over open water and did not impact land.
So far, seasonal activity has been above average based on the 30-year climatology (1991-2020), where a named storm typically forms about once every year in June.
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin so far in 2023 has also been above average compared to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the National Hurricane Center website.
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
———————————————————–
Unnamed STS*
TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40
TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70
TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60
———————————————————–
* An unnamed subtropical storm formed in mid January. Exact dates and maximum winds will be provided once the post-storm analysis is complete.
As of this writing on 7/5/23, NHC predicts NO tropical storm activity anywhere in the Atlantic basin for the next seven days.
Predictions Vs. Actual
In May, both NHC and Colorado State University predicted that this tropical storm season would have about normal hurricane activity. Both sources cited conflicting trends as the basis for their predictions. We currently have above-normal sea-surface temperatures throughout most of the Atlantic basin. We also are now under the influence of an El Niño, which tends, in this latitude, to produce wind shear that discourages cyclone formation.
To improve predictions, NOAA has made a number of changes in reporting at the National Hurricane Center. They include new, improved models for hurricane forecasts and storm surge, longer-range hurricane outlooks, an excessive rainfall outlook, inundation mapping down to the street level, and improved data-collection technologies.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/5/2023
2136 Days since Hurricane Harvey
2023 Legislature Scorecard on Flood Issues: 2 Wins, 4 Losses, 1 Toss-up
The 2023 legislature scorecard, just five years after Hurricane Harvey, shows that flooding is fast becoming forgotten in Texas. Of the seven issues I tracked, the Lake Houston Area had two wins, four losses, and one that could be ruled a coin toss depending on your point of view.
In the Win Column
Let’s look at the good news first.
HB 1: More Floodgates for Lake Houston
Due to last minute heroics, HB 1 contained enough money earmarked for more gates to keep the project alive. A last minute phone-call campaign by hundreds of citizens making thousands of phone calls to key state legislators in the House and Senate succeeded in getting riders attached to the budget bill.
Few projects have inspired more hope among residents in the northeastern part of Harris County than the one to add more floodgates to the Lake Houston Dam. The Lake Houston Area Flood Task Force identified the project as one of the top priorities for the area.
The idea: to release water both earlier and faster in advance of major storms to create more storage in Lake Houston. Right now, Lake Conroe can release water 15 times faster than Lake Houston. And the release from Lake Conroe during Harvey was widely seen as one of the contributing factors to the flooding of so many homes and businesses in the Lake Houston Area.
The governor signed HB 1 on 6/18/23. It becomes effective on 9/1/23. With funding secured, Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin says final design on the gates is proceeding.
SB 1397: TCEQ Reforms
The TCEQ was under sunset review this year. No one proposed eliminating the TCEQ. But many people had ideas to improve it. They focused on two main areas: increasing transparency and improving enforcement.
The Sunset Commission recommended measures to improve public outreach, public notices, community input, and dissemination of public information, including the publication of best practices for sand mining.
The Commission also recommended updating the TCEQ’s enforcement practices to better focus on the riskiest actors and ensure staff treat potential violations consistently and based on severity.
The governor signed SB 1397 on 6/18/23. It becomes effective on 9/1/23.
In the Loss Column
SB 2431/HB 5338: Gulf Coast Resiliency District
These companion bills would have transformed the Harris County Flood Control District into the Gulf Coast Resiliency District. The new District would have been governed by a board appointed by the Governor instead of management hired by Harris County Commissioners.
The idea: to create regional solutions that benefitted all residents of Harris County, not just those that scored high on an equity formula.
The County fought the bill(s) tooth and nail. Each failed to get out of committee.
HB 1093: Financial Surety Guaranteeing Sand Mine Cleanup
The bill died in the House Natural Resources committee. It never even got a public hearing.
This bill would have required sand mining companies to post financial surety that would guarantee cleanup of mines before they were abandoned. Abandoned mines on both the San Jacinto East and West Forks are littered with the remains of once thriving operations. But when the sand played out, the miners walked away, leaving a legacy of blight for the public to clean up.
HB5341: Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District
This bill also died in the House Natural Resources committee. House Bill 5341 would have created a Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District. Its purpose would be to remove sediment, debris, sand, and gravel from Lake Houston and its tributaries to restore, maintain, and expand the Lake to mitigate storm flows.
SB 1366: Flood Infrastructure Financing
This bill died in the Senate Finance committee. Senate Bill 1366 would have redirected surplus revenue from the economic stabilization fund to the Flood Infrastructure Fund. The State’s Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) has turned into one of the main sources of funding for Texas Water Development Board grants and one of the main ways that smaller counties and cities can fund flood projects.
Passed but Failed
HB 1540: SJRA Reforms
HB 1540 passed. The bill implements reforms recommended by the Sunset Review Committee for the the San Jacinto River Authority. Many of those are good and needed reforms. They include provisions governing:
Approval should have been a rubber stamp. But at the last minute, Rep. Will Metcalf from Conroe offered an amendment that effectively fired Jace Houston, SJRA’s general manager and leader of the SJRA’s fight to reduce subsidence. The amended bill passed the Senate. Houston resigned effective 6/30/23. And now the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District has no one to challenge unlimited groundwater pumping in Montgomery County.
Some in the Lake Houston Area who flooded during Harvey may rejoice at Houston’s departure. But differential subsidence is tilting Lake Houston upstream. It could make the Lake Houston Dam two feet higher relative to areas upstream near the county line. That could eliminate the safety margin above the floodplain for many homes in the next big flood.
As someone who had floodwater lapping at his foundation, I personally would put this one in the loss column.
The governor signed the bill on 6/18/23. It goes into effect on 9/1/2023.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/2/23
2133 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Woodridge Village Excavation Reached 92% of Atlas-14 Requirements in June
At the end of June, stormwater detention basin excavation on Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Woodridge Village property reached 92% of Atlas-14 requirements. When HCFCD bought the property from Perry Homes in 2021, it had only 70% of the required detention capacity under Atlas 14.
Atlas-14 defines the current standard for safely containing a 100-year rainfall. The lack of detention basin capacity contributed to the flooding of hundreds of homes along Taylor Gully twice in 2019, after Perry contractors clearcut the property.
HCFCD and City of Houston purchased the property from Perry in March 2021. Excavation of additional detention capacity started in January 2022.
June/July Photos Show Progress
The first photo below was taken at the beginning of June 2023 so you can see how much progress has been made in the last month.
The second shows the site at the beginning of July 2023. The primary changes seem to be additional depth and length.
HCFCD spokesperson Amy Crouser said that, “Essentially, the contractor is free to excavate where they want within the provided footprint.”
Where Does Woodridge Village Excavation Go From Here?
HCFCD’s Excavation and Removal contract with Sprint Sand & Clay calls for excavating up to 500,000 cubic yards. Sprint excavated approximately another 8,000 cubic yards in June. That equals approximately 5 acre feet.
If Sprint keeps excavating at that rate, the table below shows that it could reach Atlas 14 requirements by the end of this year.
However, Sprint’s contract calls for excavating UP TO 500,000 cubic yards. Any excavation beyond Atlas-14 needs would create a safety hedge against future needs should they increase.
NOAA is already working on updating the Atlas 14 requirements and should release Atlas 15 before the end of this decade.
Here’s how all that looks in a table.
Sprint will make only $1,000 from its Woodridge Village excavation contract with HCFCD, but will make its profit by selling the dirt at market rates. It’s a good deal for taxpayers, but carries some uncertainty with it.
If the demand for dirt dries up and excavation slows, HCFCD and Sprint could modify the E&R contract to complete a smaller detention basin sooner. But I assume it would still meet Atlas 14 requirements at a minimum.
But simply excavating the dirt isn’t the end of the job. Harris County still needs to slope the sides, plant grass, and tie the new basin into the site’s existing stormwater-detention-basin network. Engineers are reportedly working on plans for all that, according to HCFCD.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/2023
2132 Days since Hurricane Harvey