SJRA to Unveil Results of Pre-Release Study in Conroe on 11/5/26
11/4/26 – Tomorrow, the SJRA will unveil the results of a study concerning pre-releasing water from Lake Conroe in advance of storms to reduce downstream flood risk. It’s part of a larger study about Joint Reservoir Operations between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. SJRA will unveil the “pre-release” results in Conroe Thursday evening.
The idea behind pre-release? Lower a lake’s level before a storm to create more capacity to absorb runoff without flooding people’s homes and businesses. See below.
Matt Barrett, PE, manager of SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division, says this meeting will differ dramatically from the meeting held in Humble last March. While the meeting is being billed as Joint Reservoir Operations Study Public Meeting #2, “The primary goal of Public Meeting #2 is to share results of the analysis of pre-releases at Lake Conroe and Lake Houston.”
Format of Meeting
“The meeting will begin at 6 p.m., with a presentation at 6:30. There will be a public comment period following the presentation. Before and after the presentation, study team members will be available to discuss the study with the public. Several posters will be available to help explain results of the analysis,” said Barrett.
Barrett would not reveal any conclusions of the study beforehand. He urges downstream residents to attend the meeting to learn more.
Meeting Time/Location
November 5, 2026
6:00pm – 8:00pm
Lone Star Convention & Expo Center
9055 Airport Road, Conroe, TX 77303
Limitations of Pre-Release
The effectiveness of pre-release would likely depend on a number of factors including:
Direction of Storm: Pre-release of Lake Conroe when a storm approaches from the south could cause Lake Houston to get hammered from both directions.
Forecast Uncertainty: Lowering both lakes could waste water if a storm veers away.
Storm Intensity: Could both lakes be lowered enough and in time to prevent flooding? The answer to this question depends on whether Lake Houston receives additional floodgates. Right now, Lake Houston’s primary release mechanism is a fixed-height spillway. Existing gates have 1/15th the release capacity of Lake Conroe’s.
Focus of Rainfall Across River Basin: The Lake Conroe Dam on the San Jacinto West Fork controls approximately 15% of the river basin upstream from Lake Houston. Despite that, during Harvey, Lake Conroe released one third of all the water coming down the West Fork. If a storm primarily affects the East Fork, such as TS Imelda did in 2019, pre-releasing water from a West Fork dam would have little impact.
Pre-Release Dependent on More Floodgates for Lake Houston
The City of Houston has not yet completed its study on adding more floodgates to Lake Houston (though the study is 90% complete according to a newsletter released yesterday by Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger).
The newsletter discussed a huge funding gap created by a change in the project’s scope. Republican election losses yesterday may make that gap more difficult to fill. Without the additional floodgates, pre-releases would have to begin far in advance of a storm when uncertainty about its track would still be high. Storms could veer away before they hit.
Dueling Studies?
Meanwhile, the Lake Conroe Association (LCA) has historically opposed pre-release, especially in the form of seasonal lake lowering. Seasonal lake lowering was abandoned several years ago because of pushback from LCA.
Since then, they have funded their own pre-release study, conducted by Bleyl Engineering.
The Bleyl study concluded that the ONLY area to receive flood reduction benefits from lowering Lake Conroe is immediately downstream from the Lake Conroe Dam.
Even though the Lake Conroe release during Harvey was ONE THIRD of all the water coming down the West Fork, Bleyl concluded that pre-release would lower flood levels in the Kingwood area by only three inches – LESS THAN 1%.
I have been trying to obtain the entire Bleyl study since mid-October (as opposed to the summary posted on the LCA website). However, LCA has refused to release the details.
Barrett says that the Bleyl study will not be part of the program, but that LCA members will attend.
So, my guess is that the SJRA meeting tomorrow night will contain a lot of highly charged, self-interested claims. If you’re concerned about flooding, I advise you to protect your interests by attending and speaking during public comments.
As I said above, pre-releases are not automatically beneficial. However, dozens of case studies and academic articles from around the world have proven that pre-releases can have benefits in the right conditions. More on that depending on what happens tomorrow night.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/4/2026
3354 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
