Remnants of Hurricane Polo Bringing Heavy Rains to Texas
9/29/26 – The remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo will bring heavy rain to Texas in the next four days and produce a slight-to-moderate risk of flash flooding. The heaviest rainfall will likely focus on areas to the west of Houston. However, Houston area residents should remain alert for changes in the forecast.
Current Location and Conditions
Earlier today, Polo made landfall in western Mexico in Sonora.
National Weather Service predicts Polo will dump 4-6 inches of rain across a broad area in southwest Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center says that heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact the southern and central portions of Sonora today. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains today into early Wednesday.
Multiple news reports tonight warned of flash flooding and a possible dam failure in New Mexico that has already prompted evacuations.
Forecast
While the storm is currently headed more toward New Mexico and far west Texas, forecasters predict it will angle towards central Texas in coming days and combine with an area of low pressure predicted to form in the Gulf later this week.
Pivotal Weather shows a wide swath of 5-6 inches of rainfall across areas west of Houston in the next 5 days. Some areas could experience intense rainfall at high hourly rates that produces flash flooding.
The Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service predicts the probability of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding in the Houston area in the next three days is marginal (at least 5%) to slight (at least 15%).
Four days from now, they show the Houston area in the marginal category. All of the “slight risk” has shifted west toward San Antonio.
Much Needed Rainfall
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says the rain should hit this area later this week and possibly into the weekend. He also characterized it as “much needed.”
The U.S. Drought Monitor currently shows much of the Houston area as abnormally dry with parts of the region slipping into moderate drought.
As Polo moves inland, it will pull tropical moisture off the western Gulf which will combine with a mid- and high-level moisture from the Pacific.
Lindner says that a second tropical system (Rachel) forming off the southwest coast of Mexico will also shed moisture into a trough forming over the southern plains late this week and this weekend. See this revealing IR Satellite Loop for Atlantic/EPAC Combo on Tropical Tidbits.
Lindner predicts a swath of very heavy to excessive rainfall from generally near or west of the I-35 corridor. Rainfall rates of several inches per hour may induce rapid onset flash flooding in this area even with very dry ground conditions and dry creeks/rivers.
“Locally, moisture from the Gulf will help produce scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday with increasing chances into late week.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Lindner also worries that steering currents over central Texas could force the axis of heavier rains closer or into our area, where a low pressure trough expected to form off our coast this weekend may result in another rainfall maximum near and offshore.
Any flood potential with the current forecasted amounts would be street flooding, according to Lindner.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/29/2026
3318 Days since Hurricane Harvey
