NOAA Predicts Above-Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
5/23/25 – NOAA’s National Weather Service forecasters predict an above-average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season with 13-19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, NWS forecasts 6-10 to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
In a typical Atlantic hurricane season, there are an average of 14 named storms, with 7 of those developing into hurricanes, and 3 of those becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Factors Influencing NOAA’s Predictions
NOAA cites a confluence of factors, including:
- Continued ENSO-neutral conditions (El Niño Southern Oscillation)
- Warmer than average ocean temperatures
- Forecasts for weak wind shear
- Potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon,, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.
All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation. The higher-heat content in the ocean provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
“This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms,” said NOAA.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said, “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
Forecast Improvements
NOAA also says it will improve its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:
- NOAA’s improved Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System will provide improved tracking and intensity forecasts for more accurate watches and warnings.
- NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will provide tropical cyclone advisories up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook will provide advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks three weeks in advance (instead of two) to provide additional preparation time.
Enhanced Communication
The National Hurricane Center will also step up its communication efforts with:
- Spanish language Tropical Weather Outlooks, Public Advisories, Tropical Cyclone Discussions, Tropical Cyclone Updates and Key Messages.
- An experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings that highlights where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are simultaneously in effect.
- A rip-current risk map that will show wells from distant hurricanes.
New Tools
NOAA also points to new tools that will provide better information. They include:
- A new, experimental electronically scanning radar system called ROARS on NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter research aircraft. The system will scan beneath the plane to collect data on the ocean waves and the wind structure of the hurricane.
- NOAA Weather Prediction Center’s experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal will show rain and flash flooding forecasts up to three days in advance.
2025 Names and Analog Seasons
NOAA cautions that these predictions are not a landfall forecast. NOAA will update the 2025 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.
In the meantime, here are the names for the 2025 hurricane season.
NOAA’s forecast is largely consistent with the forecast issued by Colorado State University (CSU) earlier this year. CSU researchers pointed to several years where the same conditions influencing the forecast were present: 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017.
For anyone who needs a reminder, Ike struck in 2008 and Harvey struck in 2017. The season officially begins in eight days. Here is a list of links to preparedness checklists for everything from kids to seniors and pets to vehicles.
Posted by Bob Rehak on May 23, 2025
2824 Days since Hurricane Harvey
