Three Named Storms in Atlantic Basin With Two More Brewing

9/28/24 – Forecasters predicted a very active 2024 hurricane season. After a slow start, the map is really lighting up. Currently, we have three named storms in the Atlantic Basin:

• Remnants of Hurricane Helene, which is now a post-tropical depression centered over Tennessee
• Hurricane Isaac, which formed in the middle of the Atlantic without much notice while Helene was barreling toward Florida earlier this week
• Tropical Storm Joyce, also in the mid-Atlantic

Still Brewing

None of those named storms is a threat to Houston. However, the map shows two other areas of concern. See below.

Red Area

That elongated red area in the tropical Atlantic a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system. A tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next week. The system should move toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

As of today, NHC lists formation chances for that red area as low (30%) in the next two days, but high (70%) in the next seven days.

Orange Area

Of greater concern for Texans, however, though is that orange area stretching from the northwestern Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure should form there within a couple of days. NHC says environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development thereafter. They also say that a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.

This system should move northwestward into the Gulf during the latter portion of next week. NHC warns that interests in and along the Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.

As of today, formation chance through 48 hours is zero. But it’s 50% within 7 days.

Will the Gulf Go 4 for 4?

Lest anyone forget, this area has already spawned two major hurricanes and a hurricane in the last three months – Beryl, Francine and Helene.

• Beryl ramped up to a Category 5 before hitting Houston in July.
• Francine slammed Louisiana as a Cat 2 in September
• Helene made landfall in Florida as a Cat 4 just two days ago.

Sea surface temps in that area are still 1.8 to 5.4 Fahrenheit above normal for this time of year (1-3º C).

So, don’t let your guard down.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/28/24

2587 Days since Hurricane Harvey