tropics Archives - Reduce Flooding

Heat Records and Water-Use Restrictions

This is a bit off topic for a flood blog, but it affects tens of thousands of readers. Late yesterday, after multiple heat records were broken across the region, the City of Houston announced water-use restrictions going into effect Sunday, August 27, 2023. Let me address the heat first, water restrictions second. Then I’ll discuss rain chances and the tropics.

Heat Records Shattered Across Houston Region

Yesterday, the Houston area experienced another unrelenting afternoon of scorching temperatures. Many areas reached the mid- to upper-100’s with a few areas into the low 110’s.

Afternoon daily temperature records were shattered at many sites – many by several degrees.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

High Temperatures on Thursday, 8/24/23

BUSH IAH: 109 (tied the all time record high, broke daily record high of 105 from 1980)

Huntsville: 111 (shattered record high of 102 from 2011…daily record high broken by 9 degrees)

College Station: 111 (broke record high of 107 from 2010)

Hobby: 107 (broke record high of 100 from 1980)

Conroe: 108 (broke record high of 105 from 1922…101 year old record)

Brenham: 107 (broke record high of 106 from 1980)

Sugar Land: 107 (broke record high of 101 from 2011)

Wharton: 106 (shattered the record high of 99 from 1911…112 year old record)

Cleveland: 109 (broke record high of 104 from 1980)

Crockett: 109 (broke record high of 106 from 2011)

CoH Water-Use Restrictions

According to a City of Houston press release, Houston has entered Stage Two of the City’s Drought Contingency Plan. Due to intense heat and a significant drop in annual rainfall. Effective August 27, 2023, mandatory water-use restrictions will go into effect. They apply to the entire City:

Limit outdoor watering to twice a week between the hours of 7PM and 5AM
Sundays and Thursdays for single-family residential customers with even-numbered addresses
Saturdays and Wednesdays for single-family residential customers with odd-numbered addresses
Tuesdays and Fridays for all other customers
Any outdoor water use that results in city water leaving your property (i.e., draining onto adjacent property, or streets or gutters) is unlawful.

Violations of watering times will get you a written warning for the first violation. Any subsequent violations are subject to a fine up to $2,000 for each occurrence; see Section 54.001 of the Texas Local Government Code.

Easy Ways to Conserve Water

Here are some easy ways to conserve water:

Check and repair water leaks, including dripping faucets and running toilets.
Check sprinkler heads to make sure water is not spraying into the street or directly into a storm drain and/or gutters.
Avoid washing sidewalks, patio furniture or cars. If you must wash your car, use a car wash. Most car washes use recycled water.
Run dishwashers and clothes washers only when full.
Take shorter showers.
Install a rain barrel and use it for outdoor watering.
Turn off the water when you are not using it (e.g., while brushing teeth or shaving).

For more water-saving tips, visit www.givewaterabreak.org.

Rain Chances

The high-pressure ridge parked over us for the last two months is giving a little bit of ground. Yesterday, thunderstorms finally overcame subsidence in the super-heated afternoon air mass. The gage at the West Lake Houston Parkway bridge recorded 0.44 inches of rain. Despite several downed trees, people cheered because of our deep drought.

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, as high pressure moves west, weak disturbances may approach the area from the east and northeast.

Combined with high temperatures in the low- to mid-100’s, scattered thunderstorms will be possible.

Wildfire Risk Remains

Thunderstorms come with the threat for lightning-induced wildfires. One such fire started yesterday in the Humble area. Lightning strikes will be possible each day and strong gusty winds can quickly fan fires.

Additionally, wind direction and speeds can quickly change near and around thunderstorms creating very hazardous conditions for ground crews. Multiple fires caused by a single thunderstorm can quickly overwhelm local resources. So use extra caution. Burn bans remain in effect.

Western Caribbean Sea

An area of low pressure has crossed Central America into the western Caribbean Sea. It should move north toward Florida. As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 70% chance of formation during the next 7 days.

However, it remains unclear where exactly any surface low will form and how it may interact with the surrounding landmasses. Additionally, there may be wind shear to contend with in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At this time, models predict varying intensity as the storm moves north.

Currently, this system does not pose a threat to Texas. But watch for winds that could enhance our local fire weather.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2023 based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, and City of Houston

2187 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tropics Show More Activity, Higher Probabilities since Yesterday

What a difference a day makes! Yesterday, the Atlantic Basin had four areas of concern. Today, it has five. And, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances of tropical development have increased for all of them since yesterday. See the seven-day outlook for the Atlantic Basin below and note the time: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 3:35 Eastern time.

The NHC diagram below shows a veritable parade of potential storms marching from Africa toward the Americas.

Lowdown on the Lows

Starting with the yellow area moving off the coast of Western Africa:

Yellow Area on Right

A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the next several days. Formation chance through 7 days…still low…20 percent.

Red Area with X

The red cross-hatched area to the left of the yellow is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A short-lived tropical depression will likely form this weekend and move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected. Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.

TD #6

Tropical Depression #6 formed in the central, tropical Atlantic this afternoon. The system will move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level winds will become increasingly unfavorable by late this weekend, so NHC does not anticipate any further development.

Orange Area Entering Caribbean

A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week when the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.

Orange Area Entering Gulf

An area of disturbed weather located near the Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week where a broad area of low pressure will form. Some slow development is possible thereafter. A tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. The storm will likely make landfall in South Texas and bring little rainfall to the Houston area north of I-10. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

Satellite Image Shows Current Conditions in Gulf and Eastern Pacific

The last area represents the most imminent threat to Texas. Here’s what it looks like in a satellite image. Not very impressive at the moment, especially compared to Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific (on the left).

Conditions can change rapidly so prepare and stay aware.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/23 based on information from the NHC

2181 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Digest: Updates on Six Lake Houston Area Flood-Related Stories

Below is a quick digest of six flood-related stories affecting the Lake Houston Area.

Dredging is a Slow Go

Mechanical dredgers are slowly working their way through the channel south of Royal Shores. It connects the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto. Without dredging, the dredging equipment itself would not be able to make it through the channel.

However, the pace of the dredging is painfully slow. You can see the progress by comparing the two pictures below. I took them 22 days apart.

*Google Earth shows they went a little more than 600 feet in a little more than three weeks.*

At about 200 feet per week with about 2,000 more feet to go, they should reach the East Fork in about another ten weeks.

Several boaters have commented on how the dredges can wait hours for a pontoon to ferry dirt back to the placement site. Their net takeaway: very inefficient. During a July 8 meeting at the Kingwood Community Center, Stephen Costello called this method of dredging “unsustainable.” He’s sooooo right. We will run out of luck long before we run out of places to dredge.

Mechanical dredging (shown in the photos above) is far slower and less efficient than hydraulic. Great Lakes hydraulic dredges removed 500,000 cubic yards of sediment from the mouth bar area in just two months – July and August of 2019. DRC’s mechanical dredges removed another 600,000+ cubic yards in the 19 months between January 2020 and July 2021.

Interestingly, Google Earth shows that when the dredgers reach the East Fork, they will be closer to the Triple PG Sand Mine in Porter than the current placement area south of River Grove Park. The Triple PG mine will also be less than half the distance of a mine that the Army Corps previously pumped spoils to from the mouth bar– the Eagle Sorters Mine on the West Fork.

Hmmmm. Triple PG. A placement area for East Fork spoils? A return to hydraulic dredging? Interesting thoughts.

Seasonal Lowering of Lake Conroe

Seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe has started as planned. SJRA is releasing 75 cubic feet per second, according to their dashboard.

Seasonal release is shown as a City of Houston (COH) Diversion.

When the lowering started on August 2, a day late, the lake was at 200.87. So releasing 75 CFS has brought the lake down .19 feet, a little more than 2 inches. Barring large rainfalls, this rate should reach the objective of 200 feet by September 1.

The Lake Conroe Association is still fighting the lowering in Montgomery County District Court. Judge Mike Mays set a hearing date for Tuesday, August 24, 2021 at 2PM.

Tropics Heating Up

*Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook from National Hurricane Center*

The National Hurricane Center shows two areas of concern in the Atlantic as of 2PM, Friday August 6th.

A few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, a tropical wave (orange area) and a broad area of low pressure could turn into a tropical depression by late this weekend or early next week. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Another tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is a lower threat. NHC predicts development, if any, of this system will be slow and occur early next week. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NOAA Issues Mid-Season Hurricane Outlook

Another forecast released two days ago by NOAA says that atmospheric conditions are still conducive for an above-average hurricane season. See their predictions in the right hand column below. These numbers include the five named storms so far this season.

Attorney General Lawsuit Against Triple PG Mine Still Active

Craig Pritzlaff of the TCEQ assures me that despite visible lack of progress in the Attorney General’s lawsuit against the Triple PG mine for illegal discharges, the AG has not dropped the case. “Indeed, very few, if any, cases referred to the AG for civil prosecution are ever dropped,” he says. “Litigation, particularly environmental litigation, is a complicated and lengthy process. That process was further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which halted court dockets across the State throughout 2020 and into 2021.”

Condos 250 Feet from 250,000 CFS

A Chinese developer is building yet more condos even closer to the West Fork in the Kings Harbor neighborhood.

*See new construction bottom center. Lai finished the units at the right earlier this year.*

*The nearest unit above will be about 250 feet from the San Jacinto West Fork.*

During Harvey, more than 250,000 cubic feet per second came through this area. It flooded homes and businesses more than 10,000 feet from the river.

The developer is also hoping to sell/develop that grassy area in the bottom center of the photo for $1.45 million.

I guess money has a short memory.

That concludes this month’s digest.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/6/2021

1438 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

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