Tag Archive for: Tropical Storm Beta

Final HCFCD Report on Tropical Storm Beta Finds Only 25-30 Homes Flooded

The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) issued its first and final report on Tropical Storm Beta today. The 24-page report found that only 25-30 homes in Harris County flooded from the storm, none in the Lake Houston Area. In most places, streams and bayous remained well within their banks. The report also says that HCFCD flood-reduction projects along Braes and Sims Bayous prevented the flooding of 930 structures. The combination of low rainfall intensities, frequent breaks in heavy rainfall, and dry grounds going into the event likely helped reduce the number of homes flooded, according to the report.

Understanding the Uniqueness of Storms

As with all such HCFCD reports, this one presents a treasure trove of statistics, graphs, charts and illustrations. Taken together, they help you understand the uniqueness of individual storms and how to compare them to each other.

Frequent Breaks in Storm Prevented More Severe Flooding

Tropical Storm Beta could have been much worse. The report says, “While Beta did produce heavy rainfall over the county, there were frequent breaks in the training rain bands.”

Overall rainfall intensities were generally in the 1.0-2.0 inch per hour range.

HCFCD final report on tropical storm beta

Most storm drains in the City of Houston are designed to handle 2″ per hour. The report continued, “The lower rainfall rates along with breaks in heavy rainfall allowed most creeks and bayous and internal drainage systems to effectively carry storm water capacities with limited flooding.”

2- to 10-Year Rains in Most Harder-Hit Areas

In most of the harder-hit areas, the storm dropped between 2- and 10-year rains. Those included Clear Creek, Brays Bayou, Keegans Bayou, Willow Waterhole, Buffalo Bayou, White Oak Bayou and Cypress Creek. One place along Sims Bayou recorded a 50-year rain. All other Harris County watersheds had generally less than a 50% (2-yr) rainfall exceedance probability, says the report. Those rainfall exceedance probabilities correspond to new Atlas-14 rates adopted after Harvey.

Intense Short-Duration Rains Cause Most Street Flooding

House flooding in Harris County correlates strongly to the intensity of short duration rainfall rates. In Tropical Storm Beta, short duration rainfall rates generally fell below intensities that lead to widespread and significant house flooding from:

  • Overwhelming capacity of primary drainage systems or…
  • Exceeding capacities of bayous and creeks.

The following chart compares the maximum rainfall amounts recorded in Harris County from Tropical Storm Imelda, Hurricane Harvey, Tropical Storm Allison, and Tropical Storm Beta for various time periods.

From page 3 of HCFCD’s Final Report on Tropical Storm Beta.

The chart above compares the maximum rainfall amounts recorded in Harris County from Tropical Storm Imelda, Hurricane Harvey, Tropical Storm Allison, and Tropical Storm Beta for various time periods.

For the 1-hr rainfall rate, Beta was nearly 50% lower than Imelda, Allison, and Harvey and nearly 8-10 inches lower for the 3-hr rainfall rates.

HCFCD Final Report on Beta

Beta Rates Lower than Other Recent Major Storms

As the chart above shows, rainfall rates associated with Tropical Storm Beta fell significantly below other recent tropical storms that impacted Harris County. The lower rainfall rates were likely a function of a dry air mass wrapping into the circulation, and a general lack of organized and persistent thunderstorm activity.

Beta’s short duration rainfall rates remained slow enough that drainage systems could remain effective. Additionally, dry grounds leading into the event allowed the first few inches of rainfall to be absorbed, helping to reduce run-off.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Dramatic NW to SE Rainfall Gradient

The maximum rainfall over 48 hours shows a dramatic gradient aligning from northwest to southeast. As you can see from the iso-map below, people in the Lake Houston Area received less than a third of the rainfall that people received on the southwest side of Houston.

To see the entire 24-page report, click here. For easy future reference, this report can also be found under the Major Storms Tab on the Reports page.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/2020 based on information from Harris County Flood Control

1133 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 382 after Imelda

Beta Stalling Onshore Around Victoria; Will Start Moving Toward Houston Tonight

Tropical Storm Beta moved inland last night around 10 p.m. The center is now near Victoria and moving toward the northwest near 3 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts Beta will weaken and stall today, but will then begin to move slowly toward the Houston Area tonight. They expect forward speed to increase Wednesday through Friday.

At the moment, maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph and a gust to 47 mph were recently reported at Victoria, Texas. But at the moment, my wind gage is reading ZERO here in Kingwood.

Yesterday’s Heaviest Rains Narrowly Missed Lake Houston Area

Yesterday’s heaviest rainfall narrowly missed us. While the Lake Houston Area received around an inch of rain, the southwest corner of Loop 610 received 11.64 inches due to a training feeder band.

The main threat today to the Lake Houston Area is having a similar feeder band train over us.

Below are the two-day storm totals so far for Beta in Harris County.

Source: Harris County Flood Warning System as of 6:30 am 9/22/2020.

Rainfall Predictions

For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected.

Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring south and west of the Lake Houston Area and will continue today.

RadarScope image as of 6:30 a.m. CDT on 9/22/2020. Center of storm located over Victoria in lower left.

Minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.

Track

Steering currents around the storm are now collapsing, and Beta is expected to meander during the next 12-24 hours. By this time tomorrow, however, a mid-level trough over west Texas should begin moving eastward and scoop Beta up. That will cause the storm to move toward the east-northeast near or just inland of the upper Texas coast through 36 hours.

After that time, Beta will likely turn northeastward, moving farther inland across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. Beta should weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours before it reaches the Lake Houston Area. It will become a remnant low in 2-3 days.

Tornadoes

A tornado or two could occur today near the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.

Surf

Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Winds

It is unlikely we will see tropical storm strength winds in the Lake Houston Area.

Winds will increase today as Beta moves in our direction. But Beta is barely at tropical storm strength now and is weakening. The most likely arrival time for the heaviest winds: tonight at 8 p.m.

Flash-Flooding Potential

A flash flooding event is in progress over Harris County. “Numerous roadways are flooded. Avoid travel.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

At this time (8am Tuesday, 9/22/2020), the main problem areas are south and west of Houston near the coast. However, that could change as the storm moves toward us.

Channel Status in Harris County. Green means “within banks.” Yellow means “flooding possible.” Red means “flooding likely.”

See data on the problem areas below.

Harris County Flood Control District – Hydrologic Operations Division
          Rain and Channel Status Report at 09/22/2020 07:30 AM
          ============================================     

Maximum Rainfall the last  1hr
1.56 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard
1.4 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
1.24 inches – Gage 370 @ 370 Sims Bayou @ SH 288
1.16 inches – Gage 190 @ 190 Clear Creek @ SH 288
1.04 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road

Maximum Rainfall the last  6hrs
5.72 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road
5.0 inches – Gage 2265 @ 2265 Buffalo Bayou @ Piney Point Rd
4.56 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
4.6 inches – Gage 2260 @ 2260 Buffalo Bayou @ San Felipe Drive
4.48 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard
4.4 inches – Gage 2270 @ 2270 Buffalo Bayou @ West Beltway 8
4.44 inches – Gage 2255 @ 2255 Briar Branch @ Campbell Road
4.52 inches – Gage 420 @ 420 Brays Bayou @ South Main Street

Maximum Rainfall the last  12hrs
8.4 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road
8.28 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard
8.0 inches – Gage 370 @ 370 Sims Bayou @ SH 288
7.76 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
7.4 inches – Gage 445 @ 445 Willow Water Hole @ Landsdowne Drive
7.28 inches – Gage 180 @ 180 Clear Creek @ Mykawa Road
7.2 inches – Gage 360 @ 360 Sims Bayou @ Martin Luther King Road
6.96 inches – Gage 460 @ 460 Brays Bayou @ Gessner Road
6.56 inches – Gage 175 @ 175 Clear Creek @ Pearland Parkway
6.48 inches – Gage 380 @ 380 Sims Bayou @ Hiram Clark Rd
6.44 inches – Gage 465 @ 465 Brays Bayou @ Beltway 8
6.32 inches – Gage 2265 @ 2265 Buffalo Bayou @ Piney Point Rd
6.04 inches – Gage 470 @ 470 Brays Bayou @ Belle Park Drive
6.2 inches – Gage 420 @ 420 Brays Bayou @ South Main Street

Maximum Rainfall the last  24hrs
11.04 inches – Gage 180 @ 180 Clear Creek @ Mykawa Road
11.0 inches – Gage 370 @ 370 Sims Bayou @ SH 288
10.88 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard
10.56 inches – Gage 445 @ 445 Willow Water Hole @ Landsdowne Drive
10.36 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road
10.12 inches – Gage 175 @ 175 Clear Creek @ Pearland Parkway
10.12 inches – Gage 380 @ 380 Sims Bayou @ Hiram Clark Rd
9.96 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
9.92 inches – Gage 150 @ 150 Clear Creek @ Country Club Drive
9.84 inches – Gage 145 @ 145 Clear Creek @ Dixie Farm Road
9.8 inches – Gage 190 @ 190 Clear Creek @ SH 288
9.6 inches – Gage 460 @ 460 Brays Bayou @ Gessner Road
9.4 inches – Gage 105 @ 105 Marys Creek @ Winding Road
9.44 inches – Gage 360 @ 360 Sims Bayou @ Martin Luther King Road
8.68 inches – Gage 135 @ 135 Clear Creek @ FM 2351
8.56 inches – Gage 465 @ 465 Brays Bayou @ Beltway 8
8.36 inches – Gage 115 @ 115 Cowart Creek @ Baker Road
8.28 inches – Gage 140 @ 140 Turkey Creek @ FM 1959

Stream Water Surface Elevation Data

Out of Banks:
Gage 110 @    Clear Creek @ I-45
Gage 120 @    Clear Creek @ FM 528
Gage 130 @    Clear Creek @ Bay Area Boulevard
Gage 135 @    Clear Creek @ FM 2351
Gage 145 @    Clear Creek @ Dixie Farm Road
Gage 175 @    Clear Creek @ Pearland Parkway
Gage 180 @    Clear Creek @ Mykawa Road
Gage 610 @    Taylors Bayou @ Shoreacres Boulevard
Gage 2150 @    South Mayde @ Greenhouse Road

Near Bankfull:
Gage 100 @    Clear Lake 2nd Outlet @ SH 146
Gage 140 @    Turkey Creek @ FM 1959
Gage 150 @    Clear Creek @ Country Club Drive
Gage 160 @    Beamer Ditch @ Hughes Road
Gage 170 @    Clear Creek @ Nassau Bay
Gage 190 @    Clear Creek @ SH 288
Gage 200 @    Taylor Lake @ Nasa Road 1
Gage 410 @    Brays Bayou @ Lawndale Street
Gage 420 @    Brays Bayou @ South Main Street
Gage 430 @    Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road
Gage 440 @    Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
Gage 460 @    Brays Bayou @ Gessner Road
Gage 480 @    Keegans Bayou @ Roark Road
Gage 710 @    San Jacinto River @ Rio Villa
Gage 720 @    San Jacinto River @ US 90
Gage 740 @    Lake Houston @ FM 1960
Gage 1610 @    Greens Bayou @ Normandy Street
Gage 1720 @    Cedar Bayou @ SH 146
Gage 2115 @    Langham Creek @ Clay Rd
Gage 2210 @    Buffalo Bayou @ Turning Basin
Gage 2253 @    Buttermilk Creek @ Moorberry Lane
Gage 2255 @    Briar Branch @ Campbell Road
Gage 2265 @    Buffalo Bayou @ Piney Point Rd

Key Messages

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/2020 at 8am based on data from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the National Hurricane Center, Harris County Flood Warning System and RadarScope

1120 Days After Hurricane Harvey and 369 since Imelda

Beta Feeder Band Could Dump 1-2″ Per Hour; Street Flooding Possible

Feeder Band Approaching from South

RadarScope image as of 2PM 9/21/2020

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist noted at 1:35 PM that a feeder band of heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Beta is moving from northern Brazoria and northern Galveston Counties into southern Harris and Fort Bend Counties.

Lindner says that “rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible under this band for the next 1-2 hours. This may lead to street flooding in typical areas of poor drainage.” Rates above 2 inches per hour will generally flood streets.

According to Space City Weather, currently, it looks like these storms may produce 2 to 3 inches of rain total as they slowly progress northward, so they could impact the afternoon and evening commute home.

Beta Weakening As It Approaches Landfall

The center of Beta is nearing landfall on the TX coast near Matagorda Island with 45mph winds.

At its 1 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center said the storm weakened this morning. Sustained winds dropped from 50 to 45 mph. The storm’s central pressure also rose from 996 to 999 mb, another sign of weakening. Welcome signs!

Heavy Rainfall From Training Feeder Bands Will Continue

Heavy rainfall threat in bands to the east and northeast of the center will continue into tonight and Tuesday. “This threat will not subside until the center of the circulation is east of the area on Wednesday,” says Lindner.

Lindner further expects “No significant changes to the rainfall totals. Amounts of 4-8 inches are most likely with isolated higher amounts. But these higher totals will likely be strongly correlated to training feeder bands.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/21/2020 based on data from the National Hurricane Center, Space City Weather and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

1119 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 368 after Imelda

Beta Moving Ashore Today Then Likely Tracking Slightly South of Houston

As of 10:00 a.m. Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) still shows the center of Tropical Storm Beta located offshore. The latest forecasts from the NHC predict that Beta will move onshore near Matagorda Bay, then move up the coastline toward League City.

The NHC also advises that the storm has picked up speed. Yesterday, they estimated 3 mph; today 7 mph.

No one seems to predict that the storm will intensify before landfall.

“Dry air continues to work into and wrap around the large wind field of Beta yielding the disorganized precipitation field with the system.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
National Weather Service radar Image of Beta as of 10:04 am Monday 9/21/20.
Lake Houston Area is the blue dot in the center of the swirl. Red line is predicted path of Beta. Source: Weather Live.

Main Threat: Storm Surge

At this time, Beta’s main threat is to the coastline through storm surge. “Tides are currently running 4.0-4.5 feet in Clear Lake and across coastal sections of Harris County with several sites near the Gulf beaches running 4.0-4.5 feet. Coastal flooding is ongoing and will continue for much of the day. Several roadways are underwater along the coast and around Galveston Bay,” says Lindner.

Lindner continues, “As Beta makes landfall along the middle Texas coast later today, the storm will begin to slow and then turn ENE toward the upper TX coast. It will slowly weaken along the way. This track will keep onshore flow along the upper Texas coast tonight and Tuesday. Tides will remain high into the high tide tonight. Impacts along the coast will continue through the day and into tonight and likely Tuesday.”

Wind Forecast

The most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds, if we get them, is later tonight.

Tropical storm force winds already cover a large part of the mid-Texas coast.

The storm will weaken as it moves toward the Houston Area and turn into a tropical depression. The further north you live from the coastline, the less intense winds will be.

Depending on where you live in Houston, you have a 30% to 100% chance of experiencing topical storm force winds. The Lake Houston Area is on the low end of that range. The National Weather Service predicts that the Lake Houston Area has a chance of seeing 39-57 mph winds. But Spaces City Weather advises that Beta is “not a significant wind threat.”

However, note that tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center of the storm.

Galveston has reported sustained winds of 39 mph and a gust of 43 mph during the past couple of hours.

Rainfall

Dry air has worked into the circulation of Beta, according to Lindner. “This has resulted in a more disorganized and scattered rainfall pattern. However, the system is still capable of heavy rainfall especially near the center later today and in bending structures east of the center for the next 48 hours.”

Models show several banding features developing during the next 48 hours over SE TX, But little consensus exists on where the heaviest rainfall totals may be.

Lindner advises that, “Given that much of the area will reside on the eastern side of a the tropical system, we should keep some level of concern of heavy rainfall and flooding in place through the next 48 hours.”

Lindner predicts that widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches will be possible for areas along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 10-12 inches under any training feeder bands. Totals to the north of I-10 will likely average 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 6-7 inches. 

However, the NHC predicts slightly less rain. See the map below.

As long as the rainfall spreads out over the next 48 hours, most of the creeks and bayous can handle the expected rainfall amounts, Lindner says. But should any training develop, flash flooding would be possible. 

Watches and Warnings in Effect

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana. That includes Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. That includes the Lake Houston Area.

National Hurricane Center

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Lindner, the NHC and NWS all warn that tornadoes remain a threat with this storm. Especially, tonight and Tuesday.

Track

Yesterday, models predicted that Beta would track up US59 toward the Humble/Kingwood Area. However, today, forecasters think the storm will track closer to the coast. They put it on a line toward League City.

Wind shear will keep Beta’s track close to the coastline, but it will also affect the cyclone’s intensity along with land interaction. The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48 hours.

Summary

Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible, but the danger is “slight.”

National Hurricane Center

Net: Beta is still a threat. But it may be less of one than yesterday. That’s because of the dry air folding into the system and wind sheer which seem to be weakening it somewhat. Be hopeful, but cautious. Expect several inches of rain and high winds in the next two days with both tapering off Wednesday.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/2020 at noon based on data from NHC, NWS, Jeff Lindner, Space City Weather and Weather Live

1119 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 368 since Imelda

Beta Rainfall Estimates Increasing; 6-10 Inches Now Predicted for Lake Houston Area

Beta has turned toward the Texas coast. Adverse conditions will likely begin Sunday along coast and spread inland. The main forecast change since this morning? An increase in rainfall amounts, which could be significant. See rainfall section below.

A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued on Sunday for the area.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Discussion

There has been little change in the overall organization of Beta today. Forecasters expect slow intensification as Beta approaches the TX coast.

Track: 

There have been no significant changes in the track reasoning today and the official forecast remains similar from earlier this morning. With that said, there is some uncertainty on when Beta will turn toward the N and NE near the mid Tx coast early next week, but generally impacts will be the same for much of SE TX.

Intensity: 

Given the lack of organization of the system and the lurking dry air to the west, it is now unlikely that Beta will attain hurricane intensity. The National Hurricane Center now keeps the system as a strong tropical storm as it approaches the TX coast. It should slowly as it moves NE or ENE up the coast. 

Impacts

Storm Surge: 

Water levels will rise along the upper TX coast beginning Saturday and worsen Sunday into Monday due to the expansion of the tropical storm force wind field. Expect swells reaching 15-25 feet over the NW Gulf. Four- to eight-foot waves could break on beaches. These large swells will lead to wave run up on top of the elevated tides.

Results:
  • Significant beach erosion
  • Damage to fragile dune systems.
  • Damage to coastal infrastructure
  • Inundation of low lying roads near the coast.
  • Once the water begins to rise on Saturday evening, some low lying areas may remain flooded into the middle of next week.
  • Overwash is likely on Hwy 87.
  • Ferry operations at both the Galveston-Bolivar and the Lynchburg sites may be impacted. 
Rainfall: 

While there is still some uncertainty, the storm could produce very heavy rainfall rates and amounts.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

The rainfall forecasts have been adjusted upward, even though some models suggest only meager amounts of rainfall with Beta. Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, currently predicts:

  • Coast: 12-18 inches
  • Coastal counties: 10-15 inches
  • South of I-10: 10-15 inches
  • South of Hwy 105: 6-10 inches
  • North of Hwy 105: 4-6 inches
Note that the rainfall amounts above are for a five-day total.

Given the forecast rainfall amounts…flooding of creeks and bayous across Harris County may flood depending on how the rain falls and how much falls at one time.

By Tuesday, when the ground is saturated, NOAA gives the Lake Houston Area a slight chance of flash flooding.

Six inches could fill smaller creeks; 7-8 inches could fill larger streams and bayous such as Buffalo. 

Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are currently empty.

Winds: 

Tropical storm force winds will be possible starting Sunday evening around Matagorda Bay with sustained 40mph winds likely spreading northward along the upper TX coast on Monday including Galveston Bay. Sustained winds of 55-65mph will spread up the TX coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Across Harris County wind will increase into the 25-35mph range on Monday and possibly 40-45mph range on Tuesday into Wednesday with higher gusts, especially near Galveston Bay.  

Note: Tropical storm force winds will begin to reach the coast on Monday…well ahead of any landfall of the center…due to the expanding wind field. Tropical storm force winds now extend 175 miles outward from the center of the storm.

Summary of Watches/Warnings In Effect

As of 4PM Saturday, 9/19/20:

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

  • PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS INCLUDING:
    • COPANO BAY
    • ARANSAS BAY
    • SAN ANTONIO BAY
    • MATAGORDA BAY
    • GALVESTON BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:

  • * BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY
  • * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND LAKE CALCASIEU

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:

* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:

  • PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:

  • SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
  • EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

Protective Actions

  • Bookmark and monitor Harris County Flood Warning System throughout the storm. Familiarize yourself with the real-time inundation mapping feature.
  • Bookmark and monitor the National Hurricane Center for the most current updates on Beta.
  • Prepare now for a long period of coastal flooding and periods of heavy rainfall.
  • Voluntary evacuations have been recommended for:
    • Western end of Galveston Island, west of the seawall
    • Bolivar Peninsula
    • Low-lying areas of Chamber, Brazoria and Matagorda Counties (outside levee protection)
    • Low-lying areas of Seabrook.  

AlertHouston Recommends Taking These Steps Now

  • Ensure your family has 5-7 days of food, water, and necessary supplies.
    • This includes enough prescription medication for at least this duration, in case pharmacies and doctor’s offices are closed.
    • Consider the unique needs of small children, seniors, family members with access and functional needs, and pets.
  • Decide what you and your family will do if the storm impacts your area. Most City of Houston residents are not vulnerable to storm surge and do not need to evacuate before a hurricane or tropical storm. Vulnerable residents who require electricity may also consider evacuation in advance of a major storm. For a map of hurricane evacuation zones and mandatory evacuation areas, visit: houstonoem.org/hurricanes
  • Develop a family communication plan, so that you know who to check in with after a storm. Visit readyhoustontx.gov for more information on developing a plan.
  • Know how to turn off your utilities. This includes electricity, water, and gas. Only turn off gas if instructed by local officials or by CenterPoint Energy.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2020 with data from the NHC, HCFCD, and City of Houston

1117 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Year since Imelda

Tropical Storm Beta Likely to Dump 4-6 Inches on Harris County, 10-12 Inches Near Coast

Preparations for Prolonged Coastal Flooding and Potential Inland Rainfall Flooding Should Begin now for Tropical Storm Beta.

As of 4PM CDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that storm surge, tropical storm and/or hurricane watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf coast tonight or on Saturday.

Forecast Track

Tropical Storm Beta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general direction should last through Saturday. Late Saturday or Saturday night, the storm should begin a slow westward drift into early next week. After that, Beta should recurve to the northeast.

Cone of uncertainty for TS Beta. Every point within the cone has an equal chance of receiving a hit from the center of the storm.

Don’t Focus on Exact Track Yet

Do not focus on the exact forecast track for Tropical Storm Beta, especially at days 3 to 5, as a high degree of uncertainty remains.

Regardless the forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Even if we don’t take a direct hit from Beta…

…Houston will likely be on the wet/dirty side of the storm.

10-20% Chance of Tropical Storm Winds for Houston

The Houston Area currently has a 10-20% chance of receiving tropical-storm force winds starting Sunday.

Probability of Houston receiving winds greater than 40 mph is 10-20%.
Those winds could arrive as early as Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beta could reach near hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

Key Messages

According to the National Hurricane Center:

  1. Beta should strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
  2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office.
  3. Monitor the progress of this system and future updates.

Beta could affect the Houston Area much of next week.

Impacts

Tides/Storm Surge: 

Strong ENE/E winds will push sea water toward the coast. Expect seas to build into the 8-15 foot range and waves to run up along the coast.

Expect at least 4.0-5.0 feet seas above the barnacle level. They could even reach near 6.0 feet. Impacts begin around 4.5 ft at several locations along the upper TX coast. 

Low lying roadways near the coast will likely flood at times of high tide and some locations could become isolated. Significant beach erosion is likely with elevated tides and large wave action lasting for several days and coastal infrastructure could be damaged. The expected tides on Sunday will likely be 1.5-2.5 feet higher than those experienced with Laura and Hanna.

DO NOT get caught off guard with the expected water level rise along the coast. Understand that low lying coastal roads may be inundated for a long period of time  

Rainfall: 

Squalls will increase in frequency and intensity into Sunday night and Monday and begin to spread farther inland. There will be a sharp cut off in the higher rainfall amounts from south to north over the area with amounts of 10-12 inches likely near the coast and even higher offshore. However, College Station will probably only see 1-3 inches.

Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts 4-6 inches over Harris County. 

These rainfall amounts will likely change

Winds: 

Tropical storm force winds could arrive by Sunday evening and slowly spread NE Monday and Tuesday. It is possible that some locations could see 24-48 hours of sustained tropical storm force winds with the slow movement of the system.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

1116 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 365 Days after Tropical Storm Imelda