At 10 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) posted an update on the two areas of disturbed weather that were approaching the windward islands this morning. One has already crossed the islands and has been downgraded. The NHC now gives it a 0% chance of tropical development. However, NHC upgraded the other storm system and gave it a number – Tropical Depression 5. NHC also issued a tropical storm warning for Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia. They also issued a tropical storm watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Guadaloupe.
The warning means that they expect tropical storm conditions in the next 36 hours. But a warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
Happy Fourth of July, Florida
At this point, however, it appears the storm will track toward Florida. The earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds: Sunday evening.
But the probability of that is less than 20% as of tonight.
Rescue Efforts in Condo Collapse Could be Affected
If the storm follows the predicted path, it will put Surfside, Florida on the dirty side of the storm, complicating rescue efforts in the condo collapse. However, NHC hastens to add that track questions exist given the high degree of uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
Pray for the rescuers and anyone who may still be alive in the rubble.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/2021 at 11PM based on information from the National Hurricane Center
1401 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/025646_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2021-06-30 22:53:232021-06-30 22:53:27One Storm Upgraded, Second Downgraded
The tropical wave in the NW Caribbean that I posted about this morning has become better organized. It now has a broad low-level center southwest of the Cayman Islands. Low- and mid-level centers are currently not aligned, but conditions favor eventual alignment. There are numerous curved bands and weak to moderate scattered convection near the low level center.
Like so many other storms this season, this one should veer east before it hits Houston. TD 28 will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. But an approaching cold front over TX will turn it toward the east. Major global models agree on the track with the exception of the European model which brings it in over Louisiana. This model has had a significant west bias this hurricane season with Laura, Sally, and Delta. Other models take it toward the central or eastern US Gulf coast from SC LA to the FL panhandle.
Intensity
Conditions are favorable for development with plenty of moisture and warm sea-surface conditions. NHC forecasts a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. After Tuesday, it may weaken as the system lifts northward over the Gulf of Mexico. Similar to Delta, with an incoming trough from the west, an expansion of the wind field will be possible over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Afternoon satellite image on 10/24/2020NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 13 shows intensity.
Threats
The system should approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 5 pm on 10/24/2020 based on info from HCFCD and the NHC
1152 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/image001-4.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-10-24 17:16:162020-10-24 17:16:21Tropical Depression Forms over NW Caribbean; Threatens U.S. Gulf
Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive at the Texas Coast by Monday night.Source: NHC
Tropical depression #14 has formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC predicts the storm will move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center predicts arrival time of tropical storm force winds along the Texas Coast on Monday evening.
Threat to the NW Gulf Early- to Mid- Next Week.
Persons along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Review hurricane plans and be prepared to enact those plans this weekend.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Visible satellite images indicate that a tropical depression has formed over the NW Caribbean Sea. Satellite images also show the gradual formation of curved banding. The depression is moving toward the west/WNW.
Track
West to WNW motion should continue for the next 24-36 hours bringing the system toward the Yucatan. Forecasters predict that over the weekend, the system will turn toward the NW and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with a continued track toward the TX coast as high pressure builds westward from the SW Atlantic.
As of 8/20/2020, NOAA shows the cone of uncertainty pointing straight toward the upper Texas Coast.
Intensity
Conditions favor additional intensification over the western Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36 hours. Overall, conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be increasing favorable for development of a tropical system, says Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist.
Second Storm Brewing; Wet Week Likely
A rare double whammy is possible for the Gulf Coast early next week. Forecasters at the NHC predict that Tropical Depression 13, now in the western Atlantic, will strengthen into a tropical storm tonight and into a hurricane by Monday morning. However, at this time (Thursday noon),forecasters are not predicting the storm’s track or intensity beyond Monday night.
A second tropical system, TD13, could make next week very wet and windy all along the Gulf Coast.TD13 will likely arrive in Florida and the eastern Gulf around the same timeas TD14 arrives at the Texas coast.
A high degree of uncertainty remains regarding the track of TD14 because of potential interactions with land. However, here is what forecasters predict as of Thursday morning.
It offers important advice for those who may be forced to shelter with friends and family and well as those who need to go to a public disaster shelter.
“While it may be nerve-wracking to go to a public shelter during a pandemic, know that your immediate safety during a hurricane takes priority over everything else,” says Methodist.
“Shelters will be modified to separate families as much as is feasible and hold fewer people, whether that be by walls separating rooms or by simply designating larger spaces that allow for greater distance between families,” said Lina Hildago, Harris County Judge, in an interview with Space City Weather. “We’re ready to institute temperature checks and have PPE (personal protective equipment) on hand for folks who need it. We’re also working with our first-responder community, making sure they not only have enough PPE on hand for any response, but that they are also trained on how to use it.”
Methodist advises that if you experience COVID-19 symptoms, you can speak to a Virtual Urgent Care provider 24/7. The provider will help you determine if testing is needed and advise you on where you should go.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2020
1087 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/145738.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2020-08-20 11:52:472020-08-20 11:59:57Tropical Depression 14 Headed into Gulf
