TD14 Archives - Reduce Flooding

As of 11 a.m. Friday morning, we have Tropical Depression 14 and Tropical Storm Laura poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters predict both could intensify into Category 1 hurricanes. Not many living people can remember the last time we had two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist found only one other instance. That was in 1933 when two tropical systems made landfall near the Florida panhandle and near Brownsville, Tx.

That said, the National Hurricane Center updated forecasts for TD14 and Laura at 11 a.m. Here are the current positions of the storms.

TD 14 is the most imminent threat. It is currently in the Bay of Honduras battering the Bay Islands.

TD 13 intensified into a tropical storm overnight and was given the name Laura. It is near the windward islands, heading NW toward Cuba and Florida. The big question: Will land interaction weaken the storm? At this hour, some models show it dissipating. Others show it intensifying into a hurricane.

Current Forecast for TD 14

*The Lake Houston Area could start feeling tropical storm force winds (greater than 39mph) by next Monday night.* *The current most likely timing for the arrival of TS (40mph) winds would be around 11:00 p.m. Monday to 2:00 a.m. Tuesday.*

*Current forecasts show the storm briefly intensifying into a hurricane and then diminishing to a tropical storm as it approaches the upper Texas Coast between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.*

*NHC says it’s too early to determine exact impacts to the upper Texas coast. Too much uncertainty remains.*

Rainfall Potential

Last night, Channel 2 KPRC news predicted the possibility of 12 – 18 inches of rain out of this storm. That may be high.

At this time, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts the storm will drop 3 – 5 inches of rain, mainly to the east of I-45, with some higher amounts possible.

“Grounds are very dry over the region, so the area soils will be able to handle some rainfall…at least a few inches…before significant run-off begins,” says Lindner. “Confidence is not high on the track and that will in the end determine where the maximum rain falls…with most of the heavy rain falling along and east of the track of the center.”

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is only predicting a 50-60% chance of rain for next Tuesday.

The lower estimates may give hope to the people in Elm Grove who flooded last year. The detention ponds now in place on Woodridge Village were designed to handle that much rain. But if we got 18″…

At this time, the SJRA is not releasing any water. Lake Conroe is at 199.84 feet. Lake Houston is down about three-quarters of a foot from its normal level.

Tropical Storm Laura

*The outer tropical storm force winds could arrive in Louisiana by Tuesday morning next week. That’s about 12 hours after TD-14 arrives on the Texas coast.*

Laura will likely intensify into a hurricane by the come it strikes the eastern Gulf coast.

Some Interaction Between Two Storms is Possible

Some models indicate interaction between TD 14 and Laura. That could slow TD 14’s forward motion over the Gulf. However, at this time, it is unclear whether Laura will have any influence on TD 14.

Preparation

Remember: Chance favors the prepared. Make sure you have fresh batteries. Stock your supplies. Fill your gas tank. Refill your prescriptions.

Check weather forecasts at least two or three times a day.

They get the information first.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020

1088 days since Hurricane Harvey

*Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive at the Texas Coast by Monday night.* *Source: NHC*

Tropical depression #14 has formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC predicts the storm will move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center predicts arrival time of tropical storm force winds along the Texas Coast on Monday evening.

Threat to the NW Gulf Early- to Mid- Next Week.

Persons along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Review hurricane plans and be prepared to enact those plans this weekend.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Visible satellite images indicate that a tropical depression has formed over the NW Caribbean Sea. Satellite images also show the gradual formation of curved banding. The depression is moving toward the west/WNW.

Track

West to WNW motion should continue for the next 24-36 hours bringing the system toward the Yucatan. Forecasters predict that over the weekend, the system will turn toward the NW and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with a continued track toward the TX coast as high pressure builds westward from the SW Atlantic.

*As of 8/20/2020, NOAA shows the cone of uncertainty pointing straight toward the upper Texas Coast.*

Intensity

Conditions favor additional intensification over the western Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36 hours. Overall, conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be increasing favorable for development of a tropical system, says Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist.

Second Storm Brewing; Wet Week Likely

A rare double whammy is possible for the Gulf Coast early next week. Forecasters at the NHC predict that Tropical Depression 13, now in the western Atlantic, will strengthen into a tropical storm tonight and into a hurricane by Monday morning. However, at this time (Thursday noon),forecasters are not predicting the storm’s track or intensity beyond Monday night.

*A second tropical system, TD13, could make next week very wet and windy all along the Gulf Coast.*

*TD13 will likely arrive in Florida and the eastern Gulf around the same time* *as TD14 arrives at the Texas coast.*

A high degree of uncertainty remains regarding the track of TD14 because of potential interactions with land. However, here is what forecasters predict as of Thursday morning.

Bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page for updates every few hours.

Preparedness

Now is a good time to start thinking about preparedness. Houston Methodist Hospital published an article last week about “How to Prepare for a Hurricane During COVID-19.”

It offers important advice for those who may be forced to shelter with friends and family and well as those who need to go to a public disaster shelter.

“While it may be nerve-wracking to go to a public shelter during a pandemic, know that your immediate safety during a hurricane takes priority over everything else,” says Methodist.

“Shelters will be modified to separate families as much as is feasible and hold fewer people, whether that be by walls separating rooms or by simply designating larger spaces that allow for greater distance between families,” said Lina Hildago, Harris County Judge, in an interview with Space City Weather. “We’re ready to institute temperature checks and have PPE (personal protective equipment) on hand for folks who need it. We’re also working with our first-responder community, making sure they not only have enough PPE on hand for any response, but that they are also trained on how to use it.”

Methodist advises that if you experience COVID-19 symptoms, you can speak to a Virtual Urgent Care provider 24/7. The provider will help you determine if testing is needed and advise you on where you should go.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2020

1087 Days after Hurricane Harvey

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Not Since 1933 Have Two Hurricanes Hit the Gulf Simultaneously