Tag Archive for: sea surface temperatures

Rain in Spain and Sad, Sorry State of Climate-Change Speculation

10/31/24 – An extreme rainfall event near Valencia in southern Spain on Tuesday this week fueled a spate of hasty climate-change stories. But was that the cause of the flooding?

A year’s worth of rain fell in a day. The area has an average annual rainfall of 17.87 inches. October is their rainiest month with an average 2.91 inches. But according to Fox News, they got:

  • 19.33 inches in 8 hours
  • 13.55 inches in 4 hours
  • 6.5 inches in 1 hour

Harvey Comparison

That’s pretty stout, even by Houston standards, which gets triple the average annual rainfall of Valencia’s mediterranean climate.

In fact, had that rain fallen in the Lake Houston Area during those same time periods, NOAA would have classified it between a 500- and a 1000-year storm on the Atlas 14 scale. See below.

Atlas 14
NOAA’s Atlas 14 Precipitation Frequency Estimates for Lake Houston Area

So, you can imagine the impact of that much rain in an area built to engineering standards that anticipate far less.

The death toll has climbed steadily throughout the day as search-and-rescue efforts uncover more fatalities. By 5 PM Houston time, the count had climbed to 158, but dozens still remain missing.

To put that into perspective, Harris County reported 36 deaths from Hurricane Harvey. And Harvey dropped three times the rain, but spread out over four days (August 25-29, 2017).

The major factor contributing to the different death tolls: Valencia is mountainous, and Houston is flat. The steeper geography accelerated the speed of floodwaters that carried away vehicles, bridges and even whole buildings.

Reporting is predictably focused on the gore. As the old saying in the news business goes, “If it bleeds, it leads.”

Climate-Change Hysteria

But there’s another predictable subtext to the stories: climate change. Several factors fuel the climate-change thread:

  • Readers’ desires for explanations in a less-than-predictable world.
  • Editors’ desires to provide them.
  • Academicians’ trying to raise their media profiles and obtain more grants to fund future studies on existential threats.
  • Poor public understanding of statistics and complex weather models
  • Private interests pushing agendas by using editorial content as incognito advertising.
  • Everyone’s desire to capitalize on a crisis to push their individual agendas.

Of several dozen stories from major news organizations that I reviewed for this post, only one (Fox News) refrained from climate-change speculation. It focused mainly on the rainfall amounts. Below is a rundown on several others.

Al Jezeera

Al Jazeera claimed, “Scientists warn that extreme weather such as heatwaves and storms is becoming more intense as a result of climate change.” 

New York Times

The New York Times said, “Estimating the influence of climate change on any single flood event requires further analysis, but scientists have said that global warming is making storms in many regions more intense. Warmer air holds, and releases, more water.”

“The Mediterranean is also getting hotter, hitting its highest ever recorded temperature in August.” [Emphasis added.]

However, the Times forgot to mention that when this event occurred, the waters near Valencia were only about 1C above normal. 

Colors near Valencia correspond to approximately 1º C. From NOAA’s sea surface temperature anomalies on Oct. 30, 2024.

Then the Times went on to disclaim what they just implied. “Scientists convened by the United Nations have found no consistent trend in the way global warming is affecting extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean region…”

Guardian

The Guardian said, “In recent years, scientists have warned that the waters of the Mediterranean are rapidly warming, climbing as much as 5C above normal.”

What was it when the event occurred, Guardian? And if the relationhip is so strong, why didn’t the rainfall happen when the sea-surface temps were higher?

Reuters

Reuters said, “While experts say it will take time to analyze all the data to determine if this particular [event] was caused by climate change, most agree that an increase in temperature of the Mediterranean and warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions contribute to producing more frequent extreme episodes.” What is the increase, Reuters?

Basically, they’re saying, “The Spanish rains may not be related to climate change, but they  could be…if you don’t look at recent data.”

CNN

CNN said, “Figuring out the precise role climate change played in Spain’s devastating floods will require further analysis, but scientists are clear that global warming, driven by fossil fuel pollution, makes these types of extreme rainfall events more likely and more intense.”

It reads like boilerplate.

The Independent

But some publications were more apocalyptic than others. The Independent took the prize in that department. “Climate crisis ‘worsened all 10 deadliest weather events,” the publication trumpeted.

The Independent claims “The deadliest weather events since 2004 caused more than 570,000 deaths and the ‘fingerprints’ of climate change were present, scientists say.”

We Need a White-Coat Rule for Climate Claims

If this were an advertisement as opposed to a news story, it would probably be illegal in the U.S. I remember a time when television commercials trumpeted equally unsubstantiated claims. 

It led to the passage of the “white-coat” rule by the FTC. It used to be common to dress actors up in white coats to make claims for medical products. “Four out of five doctors recommend…” They were implying that a scientific study actually existed that said 80% of doctors recommended something. But what was the sample size? Five? Which five? And which four?

CBS Cites Source, Then Pulls Story

The publications above rarely cited the name of a scientist. And I only found one news source that actually cited a scientific study. That was CBS, which has since taken their story down. Turns out, their story referred not to a study, but the transcript of a UN press conference about “climate crunch time.” No actual study was linked to the UN press conference story.

Reporting Fuels Skepticism

Climate change may be real. But the reporting around it sure makes me skeptical. If there’s substance to these claims, why such vague boilerplate? Why do so few cite sources, studies and professional credentials?

Last year, I published a story called “Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News.” It reviewed an Associated Press story about a hurricane that struck Maine in 2023. It  created 1-2 feet of storm surge and dropped 1-4 inches of rain. But this was a climate change disaster according to AP.

It turned out that the Rockefeller Foundation paid AP to hire 20 climate-change reporters to “infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news.”

The Rockefeller Foundation admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”

We need a white-coat rule for climate claims. No quoting unnamed, uncounted “scientists”! And if they actually exist, give us their credentials. Provide links to their studies in peer-reviewed journals.

We need more facts. Not more fuel for climate hysteria.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/31/24

2620 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Forecasters Predict Very Active 2024 Hurricane Season in Gulf

In January, I published a post about a British firm, TropicalStormRisk.com, that predicted an extreme 2024 hurricane season. It’s still early in the year, so any forecasts have a higher-than-normal degree of uncertainty.

However, more and more forecasters and model runs are pointing to the alignment of several factors that increase hurricane/tropical activity. They include the rapid onset of La Niña, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, lower-than-normal barometric pressures in the Gulf of Mexico and more.

La Niña Favors More Storms in Gulf

Very few tropical systems made landfall in the continental U.S. last year thanks to a strong El Niño, which tends to disrupt storms in this latitude.

However, the waning of El Niño and the rapid onset of La Niña decreases wind shear in the Atlantic. This lets more storms form and enter the Caribbean and Gulf as opposed to pushing them toward the mid-Atlantic or tearing them apart. And that supports an aggressive forecast for the 2024 Hurricane Season.

From Hurricane Info by Meteorologist Reuben Garcia. Tracks of Hurricanes during La Niña years. Video showed far fewer storms in Gulf during peak El Niño years.

Warmer-Than-Normal Sea Surface Temperatures

Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin also favor the formation of more hurricanes. Currently, temperatures are more typical of July than March.

Warmer water temps provide more fuel for storms and help them intensify more rapidly. This can lead to the formation of more major hurricanes and hurricanes that form closer to shore with little warning.

From Hurricane Info by Meteorologist Reuben Garcia. European Model suggest extremely high probability of warmer than normal sea surface temps going into the peak of hurricane season.
NOAA’s sea surface temperature anomaly chart for March 12, 2024, shows temps 2 to 4 degrees celsius above normal from Galveston to West Africa.

This may be related to the warmest winter on record – 5.4 degrees above average through February, according to NOAA.

Below Normal Barometric Pressures in Gulf and Caribbean

The European Model is also suggesting something not seen in recent years – below normal barometric pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean.

From Hurricane Info by Meteorologist Reuben Garcia. Long-range European Model run suggests low barometric pressures in Gulf during hurricane season.

Other Factors Consistently Suggest Above-Normal Season

According to Garcia, the European model is also suggesting above normal precipitation in the Gulf and Caribbean and 50% more hurricanes than usual and 70% more accumulated cyclonic energy than usual for the Atlantic. That’s more cyclonic energy than the European model has ever predicted! And it has a pretty good track record in that department.

Garcia also points out that the most recent long-range runs of North American models are largely consistent with the European model.

Many Forecasters Agree

For many of the same reasons:

Colorado State University and the National Hurricane Center won’t release their predictions for another month or two when uncertainty is reduced.

It’s important to note that all of these forecasts are Atlantic-basin wide and probabilistic. They predict the probable volume of activity in the hemisphere, not when or where specific storms will make landfall.

More news to follow as it becomes available.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/13/24

2388 Days since Hurricane Harvey

NHC Predicts Near Normal Hurricane Season

Hurricane season starts this week. Offsetting factors, some of which would call for an above-normal hurricane season and others of which would call for a below-normal season, led forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center to split the difference in their seasonal outlook.

They are giving almost equal probabilities to average, above-average, and below-average seasons. But average gets a slight edge. See below.

NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

2023 Hurricane Season Names

Below is a list of storm names for this hurricane season.

Source: National Hurricane Center

Competing Factors Make Forecast Difficult

Competing factors both suppress and encourage storm formation.

After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Niño to develop this summer. It can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.

El Niño’s strong winds from the west produce sheer that can discourage tropical storms approaching from the east.

However, favorable conditions include:

  • Above-normal west African monsoon formation that produces some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms
  • Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea which creates more energy to fuel storm development.
Updated May 29, 2023. For more information, see this page on methodology.

The last two factors have produced more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, according to NOAA.

New Policies, Models, Technologies Will Improve Future Forecasts

To improve forecasts, NOAA is adopting new policies, forecasting models and technologies this year. Improvements include:

  • In late June, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. HAFS will become NOAA’s primary hurricane model. Compared to previous models, it improves track forecasts 10-15%.
  • A Probabilistic Storm Surge model upgrade gives forecasters the ability to run the model for two storms simultaneously.
  • The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphics will expand the forecast range from five to seven days.
  • Over the last 10 years, flooding from tropical rainfall was the single deadliest hazard. To give communities more time to prepare, the Weather Prediction Center is also extending the Excessive Rainfall Outlook two days. It will now provide forecasts up to five days in advance. The outlook shows general areas at risk for flash flooding due to excessive rainfall.
  • The National Weather Service will unveil a new generation of forecast flood inundation mapping for portions of Texas in September 2023. These maps will show the extent of flooding at the street level.
  • New small aircraft drone systems, the deployment of additional saildrones, underwater gliders, and WindBorne global sounding balloons will fill critical data gaps and improve hurricane forecast accuracy.
  • Upgrades to the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array will provide new capabilities, updated instruments, more strategic placement of buoys, and more detailed observations.

NOAA emphasizes that its hurricane forecast is not a landfall forecast. Many storms die at sea and never reach land.

Peak of Season Still Three Months Away, But…

The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.

peak of hurricane season

Historically, the peak of hurricane season hits on September 10. However, storms can develop any time of year. Interestingly, NHC determined that a subtropical storm formed in the Atlantic Basin in Mid-January 2023.

And minutes after I first posted this story, the National Hurricane Center issued this 7-day outlook. It shows a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico trying to get organized. But the chances of tropical formation are slim: 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.

So remain alert and prepared.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2023

2100 Days since Hurricane Harvey


Big Picture

It’s always nice to start the new year by looking at the big picture. And big pictures don’t get much bigger than this. The image below comes from NOAA’s Global Data Explorer. It shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic. Reds show areas with warmer than normal temperatures. Blues are cooler.

Sea surface temperature anomalies from 12/20/21 to 12/26/21. Source: NOAA.

Degrees of Variation

The dark red areas are a whopping 4-5 degrees Celsius above normal. The dark blues are 3-4 degrees Celsius below normal. It takes 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit to equal 1 degree Celsius. So in terms of the temperature scale that most people in the US use, that’s up to 9 degrees warmer and 7.2 degrees cooler – a 16.2 degree spread.

This helps to explain the record warm December we just had. Houston is in that band of red that stretches across the northern hemisphere. Also notice how red the Gulf of Mexico is.

According to the EPA, an increase in sea surface temperatures can lead to an increase in the amount of atmospheric water vapor over the oceans. “This water vapor feeds weather systems that produce precipitation, increasing the risk of heavy rain and snow.” And we just had extreme snowfalls from the Sierras to the Rockies.

Role of Ocean Currents

Ocean currents help distribute this moisture around the world. According to NOAA, “almost all rain that falls on land starts off in the ocean.”

The world’s major ocean currents distribute heat and moisture across the globe. Source: NOAA.

“Ocean currents act much like a conveyor belt, transporting warm water and precipitation from the equator toward the poles and cold water from the poles back to the tropics,” says NOAA. “Thus, ocean currents regulate global climate, helping to counteract the uneven distribution of solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface. Without currents in the ocean, regional temperatures would be more extreme—super hot at the equator and frigid toward the poles—and much less of Earth’s land would be habitable.”

Cyclical Variation

Sea surface temperatures vary in cyclical, but irregular patterns (roughly every 3-6 years). Right now, we are under the influence of a La Niña pattern, that recurs every few years and can last as long as two years. This page on NOAA’s site explains what causes the changes. They often start with ocean currents veering off course for a period of time or stronger than normal trade winds.

The World Meteorological Association gives this La Niña an 80% chance of lasting through this spring before returning to normal (neutral) conditions.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/1/22

1586 Days since Hurricane Harvey