Tropical storm formed in the central Caribbean Sea late yesterday and tied a record going back 170 years.
28th Storm of Year
Eta became the 28th tropical storm of the 2020 hurricane season and tied 2005 for the most tropical storms in an Atlantic hurricane season since records began in 1851.
Satellite images show the system still lacks any defined inner core.
“Eta is a fairly large system,” says Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “and such systems generally take time to consolidate and develop. Eta is moving westward and this motion is expected to continue for the next 72 hours.”
Hurricane Threat to Nicaragua and Honduras Tuesday
On its current track, Eta should slam into Nicaragua and Honduras Tuesday morning. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts Eta will intensify into a hurricane on Monday. NHC also predicts heavy rainfall and flash flooding through Thursday, with landslides in higher elevations.
Fading High-Pressure Ridge Creates High Uncertainty Beyond 72 Hours
Eta is under the influence of a high-pressure ridge that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to near Cuba, which is forcing the system toward the west. After landfall, the system should significantly slow down as the high pressure ridge begins to weaken. “The main question,” says Lindner, “will there be enough of a defined system remaining to get pulled northward over the western Caribbean Sea and potentially the SE Gulf of Mexico. Given the expected land interaction and general slow motion beyond 72 hours, the confidence in the forecast for later this week is lower than average. Adjustments in the track are likely over the next several days.”
“There could be a period of rapid intensification prior to Eta making landfall over central America,” adds Lindner.
The Houston Area has been extremely lucky this year. Only one storm flooded only part of the City. Just to our east, Louisiana endured direct impacts from five storms.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/1/2020 based on info from HCFCD and NHC
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