8/12/24 – An August 8 update to NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook still calls for an extremely active hurricane season with 17-24 named storms, including four so far with a fifth brewing in the Atlantic. The main difference between this and NOAA’s May predictions? A higher confidence level.

The main factors that affect the latest predictions for the 2024 hurricane season include:

• Sea surface temperatures remain near record highs in the Atlantic main development region
• Weaker-than-normal trade winds
• Near record-low vertical wind sheer
• Above-normal West African monsoon rains
• No El Niño is expected to develop this year.
• We are in the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)
• Development to date, including Beryl and Debbie and an impending Ernesto, puts us ahead of the 30-year running average.

For more on the science behind the outlook, visit NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

#5 in the Hurricane Season About to Form

As of 2PM EDT, NHC indicated that sustained winds from Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 5 averaged 35 MPH. That puts it just 4 MPH from becoming the fifth named storm of the year, Ernesto. Here’s what it looks like this afternoon.

NHC gives PTC 5 a 100% chance of formation. It should intensify into a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Thursday. However, it will curve northward into the open Atlantic and does not pose a threat to the Gulf Coast.

We normally don’t get a fifth named storm in the Atlantic until August 22. After that, we normally get a named storm every 7-10 days through October 11. This year, they will likely be more frequent.

Teach Your Family about Hurricanes

The National Hurricane Center website provides an almost bottomless well of free, educational resources. Today, I clicked on Outreach Resources and found presentations and publications geared to all age and professional levels.

Learning Opportunities for K-12 Students (Resources for Teachers) includes:

• NOAA Education Resources – Hurricanes
• Hurricane Webinars for 4th-8th Grade Classes
• COMET Hurricane Strike! online module
• Ready.gov Kids

Hurricane Readiness for Coastal Communities

1. Hurricane Basics (14 MB)
2. NWS Products (15 MB)
3. Forecast Uncertainty (23 MB)
4. Making Better Decisions (10 MB)
5. Student Guide (42 MB)

The guide (#5) contains a narrative embellishes the slides in the first four presentations.

Hurricane Readiness for Inland Communities

1. Tropical Cyclone Basics (36 MB)
2. National Weather Service Products (26 MB)
3. Understanding Forecast Uncertainty (7.5 MB)
4. Inland Hurricane Preparation in Practice (23 MB)
5. Student Manual (30 MB)

Again, #5 contains additional explanation when slide graphics in presentations 1-4 may not be totally intuitive.

Information that Saves Lives

FEMA geared the presentations in the second two groups to adults, both in an out of government. The coastal presentations contain more emphasis on storm surge. The inland presentations emphasize riverine flooding from the heavy rains that often accompany hurricanes.

The information in both groups can benefit teachers, parents, first responders, emergency managers, and government leaders.

They explain various tools, terms and graphics used by NOAA, NHC, NWS, and NHP to help everyone make informed decisions when planning for and responding to hurricane threats.

For instance, I found the discussion on inundation mapping that involved forecasts and “nowcasts” very illuminating. Ditto for the discussion about how NHC determines the timing and probabilities in its graphics. How much water it takes to make cars float and lose traction. How emergency planners work together. And more. Much more.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/12/24

2540 Days since Hurricane Harvey