A developer named Ryko has announced plans to build 7000 homes on floodplain land that could be inundated with 7 to 25 feet of floodwater in the next 0.2% annual chance storm. The Houston area has had four such storms in the last 10 years.

From a public policy perspective, that raises three questions:

• Could homeowners on Ryko land survive a major flood?
• Would evacuating them put first responders at risk?
• Is there a better use for the land?

Developer’s Entire Property Likely Under Water During Harvey

Benders Landing Estates (BLE) is currently the southern extent of development in the triangle bounded by Spring Creek, the San Jacinto West Fork and the Grand Parkway. Several of the southernmost homes in BLE flooded during Harvey.

From there, the Ryko land drops 30 feet in elevation to the confluence of Spring Creek and the West Fork. So, it stands to reason that virtually everything on Ryko’s land flooded, too.

FEMA’s Base Flood Elevation Viewer shows that in a 500-year flood, land at the southern end of Ryko’s property near the confluence of Spring Creek and the West Fork would be under 25 feet of water. And at the northern end, higher land would be under 7 feet.

Would Such Flooding Be Survivable?

At the deeper end of Ryko’s property, such a flood might not be survivable. Look at what that much water did to the townhomes in Forest Cove a little more than a mile downstream from Ryko.

Close up, the damage looked like this.

Of course, damage at the higher elevations on Ryko’s land would not be as severe. Whether Ryko’s residents could survive would depend on how deep in the floodplain they lived and whether they could evacuate before floodwaters rose.

One resident of Benders Landing Estates told me of helicopter rescues during Harvey.

If BLE residents had to be rescued by helicopter, imagine the logistics of rescuing thousands more deeper in the floodplain.

Assuming an average population density of about 2.5 people per household, Ryko’s 7,000 homes could hold 17,500 people.

Rescuing that many residents by helicopter would be an air traffic control nightmare…especially in heavy weather with limited visibility.

Putting First Responders at Risk

Harvey’s floodwaters rose at night as people were sleeping…without warning or time to evacuate. A few miles downstream, a dozen people died as a result of injuries sustained during evacuation by boat. A first responder told me that HFD estimated the West Fork water speed at 22 MPH. That’s dangerous!

Clearly, there are no good ways to rescue that many people when floodwaters rise that high next time.

Is There a Better Use for the Land?

Yes. This land would make an ideal park. And we already have an ideal model in the nearby Lake Houston Wilderness Park. Both areas:

• Are roughly similar in size.
• Lie between major streams
• Are unsafe to develop.
• Flood regularly.
• Host a variety of wildlife including bald eagles.

If wilderness floods, it won’t endanger people or property. When water recedes, life goes back to normal without:

• Presidential disaster declarations
• Congressional appropriations
• Bankrupting the national flood insurance program
• Decades of flood-mitigation grants and rebuilding efforts.

To end on a positive note, parks enhance home values for humans. Multiple studies have shown that proximity to parks enhances the value of homes.

Perhaps it’s time for Ryko to recognize that developing this land is too risky. Doing so would open themselves up to multi-million dollar lawsuits if people died in a flood…especially after they were warned by Montgomery County that developing the land was unsafe.

In my opinion, Ryko should put a reasonable price on the property that lets the State, County and/or City turn the land into a park. Then everyone could win and walk away whole.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/7/25

2808 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.