8/1/24 – 7PM Update – Since posting this story earlier today, NHC has shifted its predictions even farther west and increased development chances to 40% in two cays and 70% in 7 days.

8/1/24, 9 AM – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a well-defined tropical wave is now moving toward the Gulf. This represents a significant change from earlier predictions that took the storm east of Florida.

The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Development Chances

Development of this system should occur slowly during the next two days. Environmental conditions will soon become more conducive for development. And a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The system has a 20% chance of formation in the next 2 days and a 60% chance in the next 7.

National Hurricane Center

NHC and others have discussed this tropical wave for about a week now. In the last 2 days, shower and thunderstorm development has become better organized, but there is still no defined circulation at the surface at this time.

The wave axis should reach Cuba by early this weekend. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, land interaction will likely prevent any sort of significant development in the near term – unless a center forms either south or north of the inlands.

Likely Track

Toward this weekend it is now likely that the wave will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the steering patterns become highly complex.

Forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty. Different models show numerous outcomes in the eastern Gulf during the next 5-7 days.

Weak Storm Likely at This Point

Intensity forecasts are also very uncertain at this point. Most models predict a weak system. But once a defined surface center forms, intensification looks likely.

Factors Supporting Development

Lindner points to three factors supporting eventual development.

Conditions supporting intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico include:

• Very warm sea surface temperatures
• Light wind shear
• Potential for dual outflow channels aloft.

Role of Dual Outflow Channels in Formation

Meteorologists frequently talk about shear and sea surface temperatures in relation to hurricane formation. But they talk less often about the importance of outflow channels. How do outflow channels support hurricane formation?

Dual outflow channels are important in hurricane formation because they can enhance the efficiency and intensity of a storm.

According to ChatGPT, they provide:

1. Enhanced Ventilation: This allows the hurricane to expel air more efficiently, promoting a stronger inflow at the surface.
2. Symmetrical Structure: With outflow in multiple directions, the hurricane maintains a more symmetrical structure.
3. Lower Pressure: Efficient outflow channels contribute to lowering the central pressure of the hurricane. Lower pressure at the core leads to higher wind speeds and a more powerful storm.
4. Sustained Intensification: Dual outflow channels can support sustained intensification by continually removing air from the upper levels, allowing the storm to draw in warm, moist air from the ocean surface.
5. Balanced Energy Distribution: The channels help distribute energy more evenly around the storm, preventing one side from becoming too dominant and potentially disrupting the hurricane’s structure.

Dual outflow channels thus help enhance the structural integrity, efficiency, and intensity of hurricanes.

Preparations

At this time, no one predicts that the storm will reach as far west as Houston. But last week, no one predicted that it would reach the Gulf either.

As always, your best bet is to be prepared for anything. Restock food, water and batteries used after Beryl. Recharge your backups. And monitor the NHC daily.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/24

2529 Days since Hurricane Harvey