Tag Archive for: National Weather Service

Laura Intensifying into Major Hurricane; Prepare for Big Winds, Power Outages

These warnings were just issued by Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the National Hurricane Center, and City of Houston:

Hurricane warnings issued from San Luis Pass into Louisiana.

Landfall of a devastating hurricane likely between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass tomorrow night.

Rush to complete preparations to protect life and property.

Heed all evacuation recommendations.

Discussion

Laura – now a hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph – is continuing to intensify. The hurricane will likely rapidly intensify over the next 24-36 hours, right up to landfall along the upper TX coast. The National Hurricane Center predicts Laura will become a major hurricane with sustained winds over 110 mph by tomorrow night or early Thursday morning when it makes landfall somewhere between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass.

Track: 

Everyone should be planning for the landfall of a very serious hurricane between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass on the Louisiana border. Additional shifts in the track are possible that could bring the core of Laura into Galveston Bay and Harris/Galveston Counties.

The large wind field will result in strong winds likely 100-150 miles inland across east Texas.

Prepare for power outages extending well inland along with significant wind damage and extended outages.  

Intensity:

Prepare for the impact of a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher). Once the inner core of Laura forms, significant intensification is likely, and conditions look very favorable for intensification. 

Tropical Storm force winds will begin along the coast at around 8:00 pm Wednesday evening.

Advice from City, Lake Status

“Rainfall amounts in the Lake Houston Watershed over the next six days are expected to be 2 – 4 inches with isolated accumulation of 6 inches possible,” said Dave Martin. “Currently, the Lake Houston Watershed is dry and the projected impact to our area will be to our east with the largest possible impact expected along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. Lake Houston is already down one foot from normal pool with the possibility of being lowered additionally, if necessary. Please make sure all property along the shoreline is secured in the event additional lowering is ordered.”

“Regardless of where this storm lands,” said Martin, “it is important all residents prepare themselves and have a plan. Hurricane Laura will likely be similar to Ike with severe wind impacts and power outages. The City of Houston has prepared resources to help you get ready for upcoming disasters and make sure you are prepared for this one. Please visit www.readyhoustontx.gov to learn more.

Actions

  • Prepare for the landfall of a major hurricane along the SE TX coast
  • Bring in anything in your yard, such as lawn furniture, that could become airborne.
  • All preparations will be to be competed by 6:00 p.m. Wednesday evening.
  • Heed all evacuation orders. 

For hurricane preparation tips from the National Weather Service, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Laura Upgraded to Hurricane; Will Intensify Through Landfall; Mandatory Evacuation for Galveston Island

Overnight, Laura turned into a hurricane. At 5:25 this morning, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, issued the following:

Hurricane Watches extended west to San Luis Pass…now include Harris and Galveston Counties

Major hurricane forecast in the NW Gulf of Mexico Wednesday

Enact hurricane plans now. Follow all recommendations from local officials.

At 7:00 a.m., he issued another warning saying that:

Laura upgraded to a hurricane…intensification will continue through landfall.

Mandatory evacuation order for Galveston Island effective immediately.

Discussion 

Laura is now over the SE Gulf of Mexico and moving toward the WNW after having jogged westward overnight. Deep convection has developed over and near the center this morning. Some light northerly system continues to impact Laura, which continues to track to the south of predictions. 

Track: 

The steering pattern that will bring Laura to the NW Gulf of Mexico remains somewhat in flux this morning. Laura will turn northwest and then north. But uncertainty remains as to when Laura will make this turn. Overnight model guidance now delays this turn a little longer and brings Laura more toward the upper Texas coast. NHC may have to shift their forecast track a bit more westward later this morning.

Forecast track shifted back west overnight bringing Houston into cone of uncertainty. Track forecast could shift further westward later this morning, bringing Houston closer to center of storm.

While uncertainty remains in the eventual outcome of Laura, preparations for landfall of a major hurricane along the upper TX coast should be well underway.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Tropical storm force winds will begin to arrive along the coast Wednesday evening and spread inland Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Intensity: 

A central core is starting to form with Laura and overall circulation of the system is looking better defined. Conditions in the central Gulf today favor a period of rapid intensification. Laura is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane along the SE TX/SW LA coast late Wednesday.

Laura is a fairly large storm and impacts will be far reaching from the impact point extending both west and east.

Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Impacts

Rainfall:

Will rainfall forecast at 2-4 inches east of I-45 and 1-3 inches west of I-45, but this may need to be increased later today. WPC has placed areas east of I-45 in a slight risk for flash flooding.

Most of Houston falls into the light and dark green bands on the left, predicted to get 1-4 inches of rain.
NHC how gives the Houston Area a slight chance of flash flooding (10-20%).
Storm Surge: 

Still looking at 2-4 feet above ground level in Galveston Bay and 4-6 feet on Bolivar with levels of 7-11 feet east of High Island into Louisiana. Should the track shift more west, these values around Galveston Bay would potentially need to be increased significantly.  

Wind: 

Tropical storm force winds will be moving into the area Wednesday evening. Expect winds of 40-50mph across Harris County northward along I-45 with hurricane conditions becoming increasingly likely over Liberty and Chambers Counties. Any additional shift westward in the track will bring stronger winds across the area.

Be prepared for power outages starting Wednesday evening. 

Actions

Enact hurricane plans now.

Follow all recommendation on evacuation from local officials.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

The National Hurricane Center advises that:

Storm Surge Watch is in effect for San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi.

  • High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
  • Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX…4-6 ft
  • San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX…2-4 ft
  • Galveston Bay…2-4 ft

Hurricane Watch is in effect for San Luis Pass Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • San Luis Pass to Freeport Texas
  • Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For inland watches and warnings, monitor the local National Weather Service forecast office.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2020 with input from CoH, Harris County, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and ReadyHarris.

1092 Days After Hurricane Harvey

Where the Rain Fell

During last week’s major rain, the National Weather Service and others predicted that some of the heaviest rain would fall in the US59 corridor. In fact, it did…just not US59 North. A pocket of 6-8 inch rain hit Sugar Land, as you can see below.

Regional Rain Map From Last Storm

Regional rainfall map of last week’s big storm, supplied by National Weather Service

Two other pockets received 6-8 inches (red): The Woodlands and Huntsville. The vast majority of the area around Lake Houston received 4-5 inches (olive). Upstream from us, a small band through southern Montgomery County received 5-6 (orange). But upstream from Lake Conroe, the huge yellow area received only 3-4.

Diane Cooper, who sent this map to me, worked for the NWS for 20 years in various capacities including as a meteorologist, hydrologist and river forecaster. In predicting floods such as this, forecasters say, it’s important to look at rainfall upstream, not just your area.

How to Interpret

Reviewing such maps can help several ways. It can help predict peaks based on historical comparisons of rainfall. It can also help predict the timing of peaks, based on the distance high volumes have to travel. 

In this case, Lake Creek and the East Fork, because of heavy rainfall upstream, prolonged the high water in our area.


You can zoom from the entire United States to your own property, and even switch backgrounds, or highlight streams, by turning layers on and off.

By zooming out, you can see the storm as it approaches. And by varying the length of the period searched, you can get an idea of how much rain has fallen in the last 14, 30, 60, 90 and 120 days. You can even narrow the search to 1 hour to determine current intensity.

Where to Find

You can find all this regional information on the National Weather Service web site here.

If you forget the link, it’s always available on the Links page of this web site under the Weather/Flood Related subhead and a listing called NWS Regional Rainfall for the last 24 hours.

The site offers hundreds of different ways to search through information as varied as river stages “forecast” and “observed”; stream flow amounts; temperature; wind; visibility; ship observations and more. It’s one of the more powerful and useful online tools I have ever seen.

Play with it and learn how it works before the next storm. It can help reduce anxiety by showing you exactly what you’re up against. 

Precipitation for the last thirty days. Saturated ground makes for quick runoff.

You can even see where the storm went after it left here.  I’m just thankful I’m not one of those people buried under snow without power. Been there. Done that. Minnesota. January. It’s enough to make you a Texan. 

Posted by Bob Rehak on December 10, 2018

468 Days since Hurricane Harvey

DON’T FORGET FLOOD WORKSHOP TONIGHT!

PLEASE COME!

FLOODWARN WORKSHOP
MAY 1, 6:30-8:30 PM
KINGWOOD COLLEGE
20,000 KINGWOOD DRIVE
MUSIC BUILDING, ROOM 117
CLOSEST PARKING IS LOT G
HOSTED BY NWS, FEMA, HCFCD, SJRA

TONIGHT, May 1st at 6:30-8:30 p.m., The National Weather Service (NWS), Harris County Flood Control, and FEMA, and the San Jacinto River Authority are hosting a FloodWarn Workshop. They will talk about the types of flooding we see in the Kingwood/Humble area, the watersheds, forecasts, warnings, flood risks, and flood insurance.

Giant sand dunes like this one where the West Fork meets Lake Houston inhibit the flow of the river. Engineers say that sediment is not being carried out into Lake Houston (background) as expected. Areas behind these dunes experienced massive flooding during Harvey.

Organizers hope the event will help people in the Lake Houston Area better understand what goes into forecasts. They will also address their limitations, the risks associated with severe events, and actions to take in response to various types of warnings.

The NWS has posted the event on its Facebook page: The event is free and open to the public at Lone Star College – Kingwood at 20,000 Kingwood Dr., Kingwood, TX.

The National Weather Service provides forecasts and river flood warnings for the river gage at the San Jacinto River at Humble. Based on the readings there and elsewhere, the Weather Service forecasts “flood impacts.”

Flood impacts identify what structures, roads, bridges, etc. will flood when the river reaches a specific level. These impacts drive the establishment of the flood categories of Minor, Moderate and Major.

This FloodWarn workshop will be our opportunity to share our flooding concerns with the National Weather Service. If impacts need to be modified or updated, this is the community’s opportunity to provide that feedback.

Plan to attend. Make sure the NWS knows how important accurate and advanced warning forecasts are to you. With accurate forecasts we can be prepared for the next flood.

National Weather Service Hosting FloodWarn Workshop in Kingwood

On May 1st at 6:30-8:30 p.m., The National Weather Service (NWS), Harris County Flood Control, and FEMA, and the San Jacinto River Authority are hosting a FloodWarn Workshop. They will talk about the types of flooding we see in the Kingwood/Humble area, the watersheds, forecasts, warnings, flood risks, and flood insurance.

Organizers hope the event will help people in the Lake Houston Area better understand what goes into forecasts. They will also address their limitations, the risks associated with severe events, and actions to take in response to various types of warnings.

The NWS has posted the event on its Facebook page: The event is free and open to the public at Lone Star College – Kingwood at 20,000 Kingwood Dr., Kingwood, TX.

The National Weather Service provides forecasts and river flood warnings for the river gage at the San Jacinto River at Humble. Based on the readings there and elsewhere, the Weather Service forecasts “flood impacts.”

Flood impacts identify what structures, roads, bridges, etc. will flood when the river reaches a specific level. These impacts drive the establishment of the flood categories of Minor, Moderate and Major.

This FloodWarn workshop will be our opportunity to share our flooding concerns with the National Weather Service. If impacts need to be modified or updated, this is the community’s opportunity to provide that feedback.

So mark your calendar
Event: FloodWarn Workshop
Sponsors: National Weather Service, Harris County Flood Control, FEMA
For: Lake Houston Area Residents
When: 6:30-8:30 P.M., Tuesday, May 1, 2018
Where: Kingwood College, 20,000 Kingwood Drive, Kingwood, TX

Plan to attend. Make sure the NWS knows how important accurate and advanced warning forecasts are to you. With accurate forecasts we can be prepared for the next flood.

Posted April 22, 2018, 236 days since Hurricane Harvey