Tag Archive for: Milton

Milton To Make Landfall Near Tampa in Hours

10/9/24 at 5 PM – Tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Milton can already be felt in the Tampa Bay Area. The storm is moving toward Tampa at 17 MPH. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening.

Milton’s location at 4:46 PM CDT. Eye has become obscured by clouds. Milton covers the entire Florida Peninsula.

According to the National Hurricane Center, it will then move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

120 MPH Cat 3 Storm at Present

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 MPH with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening. And it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton should weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles. Central pressure is 948 mb.

“Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast tonight and early Thursday,” warns NHC.

Add to that the risk of strong tornadoes. Warnings are already up.

9-13 Feet of Surge Predicted Just South of Tampa

Even though meteorologists have tightened their estimates, storm surge is still a significant threat. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

NHC predicts the eye will pass just south of Tampa and has scaled back surge predictions there too 6-9 feet, considerably lower than the 10-15 feet predicted yesterday.

However, slightly south, surge predictions still range from 9-13 feet down to Boca Grande, and 8-12 feet down to Bonita Beach.

NHC says, “There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm.”

“Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall.”

Up to 18 Inches of Rainfall

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches will be common. Localized totals up to 18 inches are expected across the central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.

Life-Threatening Flood Potential

This heavy rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.

About the only thing left to do at this point is pray for a speedy recovery. But based on Houston’s experience with Hurricane Harvey, I can promise you that recoveries from storms of this magnitude are anything but speedy.

That’s the main reason why I continue to post “Days since Harvey” with all of my posts. I want people to understand how long recovery and mitigation take.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/09/24 based on information from the NHC and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner

2598 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Milton Could Be One of Most Destructive Hurricanes On Record

10/8/24 4 PM – As if the pictures of Helene’s aftermath weren’t enough, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

Milton weakened to a Category 4 overnight during an eye wall replacement cycle and is now regaining strength as it expands into a larger storm. At 4 PM, it had a 10-mile-wide eye and was turning northeast, moving at 9 MPH.

NHC also reported that Milton regained Cat 5 strength and had sustained winds of 165 MPH.

Milton
Milton was north of the Yucatan at 3PM CDT.

Typically, Cat 5 storms destroy a high percentage of framed homes, with total roof failure and wall collapse. NHC warns that “fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will likely last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

Ironically, much of the area that Milton will hit was already heavily damaged by Helene two weeks ago. Cleanup from Helene is not yet complete. The high winds could create a blizzard of debris and airborne projectiles.

Authorities are urging residents in evacuation zones to get out today as there may not be enough time if they wait until tomorrow.

Highly Populated Area in Crosshairs

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track currently puts the Tampa Bay Area in the crosshairs with landfall tomorrow.

However, NHC cautions that, this far in advance, their forecasts typically contain 60-70 miles of error.

The outer winds could reach the Florida coast tomorrow. And the hurricane should make landfall early Thursday, crossing the Florida Peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday.

NHC says that preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. By tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate and it may not be safe to work outside.


Wind Field, Storm Surge Will Affect Much of Florida

NHC also says that “Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”

At 1 PM, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.

Storm surge in the Tampa area could reach 15 feet above dry ground. Surge warnings affect the entire western coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. Note below that NHC has also posted surge warnings for most of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia and South Carolina.

Heavy Rains and Flooding

NHC predicts 5 to 12 inches of rainfall, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across central to northern Florida through Thursday.

This rainfall will bring the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding, according to NHC.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 3:30 PM, 10/8/24

2597 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 13 since Helene

Milton Already a Category 5

10/7/24, 1 PM Update – Since posting the story below at 10 AM, Milton intensified explosively another 20 MPH and is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 MPH sustained winds and higher gusts. So, I have updated some of the statistics in the post.

Overnight, Hurricane Milton morphed from a Category 1 storm to near Category 5. This morning, Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Milton’s maximum sustained winds have already increased to 155 MPH…with higher gusts.

Miltons Position at 11:36 CDT

Category 5 Storm at 1 PM Update

155 MPH made Milton a high-end Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – just 2 MPH below the Category 5 designation. But then it exploded.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Milton is now a Category 5 hurricane. And it has nothing but light shear and very warm waters between it and the Florida coast. 

According to NHC, in a Category 5 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

If Milton were a tornado, its 175 MPH winds would make it an F3 on the Fujita scale, capable of blowing apart well constructed houses, overturning trains and uprooting forests. In contrast, Hurricane Helene was a Cat 4 storm with 140 MPH.

Current Conditions and Forecast

Milton should also become a much larger hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico once it completes an eyeball replacement cycle.

At this hour, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb.

As Milton nears the Florida coast, it should weaken some as it encounters drier air and wind shear. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland.

Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph MPH. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight. Then it should turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.  

On that track, Milton will move near the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

The northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will likely experience life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves today. The same threats should reach Florida late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

Threats

STORM SURGE:

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
  • Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
  • Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
  • Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
  • Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
  • Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
  • Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft
Milton surge

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphics available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

For an easy way to find the elevation of your home or business, see https://reduceflooding.com/2020/08/01/easy-way-to-find-the-elevation-of-a-home-and-the-slopes-around-it/.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night.

This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and Flash Flood Risk
graphics at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND:

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.

SURF:

Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Meanwhile…Advancing Drought Back in Texas

After an abnormally wet spring and summer, we’ve had very little rain since Labor Day. As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor now classifies the Houston area as Abnormally Dry.

Milton will miss Texas. But Texas sure could use some of its rain. When it comes to rainfall, sometimes Texas feels like “beast or famine.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/7/24 at 11:30 AM

2596 Days since Hurricane Harvey