Lake Conroe Release Rate at 90% of Harvey
5/2/24 at 4:30 PM – The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) is releasing water at the rate of 69,545 cubic feet per second (CFS from Lake Conroe. That’s down a couple thousand from the 71,835 they released earlier this afternoon, the second highest release rate ever – 90% of the all-time record of 79,000 CFS during Hurricane Harvey.
At that rate, NOAA predicted the San Jacinto West Fork at US59 would peak at 62.4 feet. Since then, they’ve reduced that back a bit to 62.2.
However, the level of Lake Conroe is still rising slightly. It stands at 205.13 MSL (mean feet above sea level) as of 4:30 PM.
And local leaders including Houston Mayor John Whitmire, State Rep. Charles Cunningham and City Council Member Fred Flickinger met in Kingwood to plan emergency response with first-responders.
More Rain on Way
The level of Lake Conroe is up significantly since this morning. And another rain storm is headed our way tonight. The National Weather Service predicts a 40% chance of more thunderstorms tonight. Anything that falls will be on top of almost 7 inches of rain received in the Kingwood area earlier today.
Flood watches and warnings remain in effect at the present time. Any new rain will fall onto already saturated soils, resulting in rapid runoff.
SJRA Pushing Up Against Limit
But the SJRA is running out of room. At 207, they flood Lake Conroe homes and endanger the dam, according to Mark Micheletti, an SJRA board member who lives in Kingwood.
Micheletti has demanded that SJRA operators throttle back releases as soon as they stabilize the Lake Conroe’s level. The SJRA hopes to keep a safety margin by not letting the lake level get above 206, but nature, not engineers will make that call.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty has many Kingwood people in panic mode wondering whether they should evacuate. I’ve been deluged (pardon the pun) with requests for information.
Whitmire Visits Kingwood to Plan Flood Response
Houston Mayor John Whitmire came to Kingwood this afternoon to meet with first responders and area leaders. He wanted to personally see the situation and assess what the area needs. He met with Fire Chief Samuel Peña, first responders, State Representative Charles Cunningham and City Council Member Fred Flickinger at Fire Station 102 on West Lake Houston Parkway.
Peña emphasized the need for vehicles to stay out of high water. The fire department had already made numerous high water rescues today.
At the meeting, Whitmire also said that he had discussed evacuation orders for certain subdivisions with Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo. After Harvey, “communication with residents” and “warning time” were identified as two of the primary things officials needed to improve.
Current East Fork Predictions and Evacuation Orders
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the County has issued evacuation orders for the east side of the East Fork San Jacinto from FM1485 to Lake Houston. (Lake Houston Park is on the west side.) Forecasted water levels will rise 7-8 feet higher than earlier this week. Structures on the ground will be flooded to rooftop levels. Elevated structures will be flooded.
Impacted subdivisions:
- Idle Wilde
- Idle Glen
- Cypress Point
- River Terrace
- Magnolia Point
- Northwood Country Estates
Current West Fork San Jacinto Predictions and Warnings
The West Fork is rapidly rising from upstream inflows. It will reach major flood levels and will rise to near 62 ft on Saturday. Widespread low-land flooding will occur impacting the following subdivisions:
- Belleau Woods
- Rivercrest
- Northshore
- Forest Cove
- Kings Point
- Atasocita Shores
In Kingwood, Lindner expects flooding of streets and the lowest structures nearest the river. He also predicts backwater impacts along the tributaries. That means high river levels could force water in channels and tributaries to back up.
The following areas will be completely flooded with several feet of water: Deerwood Country Club, Deer Ridge Park, and Kingwood Country Club.
Elevated residents near the river should be prepared to be cut-off through the weekend.
I have queried HCFCD about the list of subdivisions above. It seems incomplete. But I have not yet heard back.
San Jacinto River Below Lake Houston
Major flooding is expected at all locations along the lower portions of the river.
Rio Villa will be completely inundated and cut-off.
High velocity flows may damage vessels and barges near I-10.
Flow may approach and potentially reach I-10 on the west side of the river.
Real Time Inundation Monitoring
To monitor what’s going on around you, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner suggests using the Real-Time Inundation Mapping Tool found in the Harris County Flood Warning System. From the home page, just click “Inundation Map” in the upper left tool bar, then zoom into the area of interest.
Easy Way to Find the Elevation of Your Home
Don’t know the elevation of your home? Consult this post about how to find it in the USGS National Map.
More updates later. SJRA may issue another statement at 8PM.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 4:30 PM, Thursday, May 2, 2024
2438 Days since Hurricane Harvey