major hurricane Archives - Reduce Flooding

Twenty-four hours ago, Hurricane Delta was simply potential tropical cyclone #26. As of 8 P.M. EDT today, the National Hurricane Center indicated #26 had progressed from tropical depression to tropical storm to hurricane in 24 hours. By tomorrow night, Delta should become a major hurricane as it crosses the resort areas on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. However, the NHC also predicts that the storm will de-intensify before it makes landfall somewhere between East Texas and the Florida Panhandle on Friday.

Winds Could Increase from 75 to 120 mph

Low wind sheer and warm waters in the northwest Caribbean will allow rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The storm already has sustained winds of 75 mph. NHC gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. That’s roughly another 40 to 45 mph.

Track Shifts Slightly West

The NHC has shifted the track envelope westward over today, bringing the storm closer to Houston, though we are still slightly outside the cone.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Currently Extend 70 miles From Center

NHC expects additional rapid strengthening during the next day or so. Delta, they say, should become a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

*At this point, the Houston area has a 10-30% probability of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds from Delta.*

Louisiana to Western Florida Faces Largest Danger

NHC advises, “Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta.”

Impact to Texas Coast?

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, says, “Swells will be increasing over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by mid week with heights increasing into the 5-10 foot range by Wednesday. This will result in increasing tides along the upper TX coast. Current projections indicate 1.0-1.5 feet above normal levels at times of high tides Thursday and Friday. This is subject to change based on the intensity and wind field of Delta over the central and NW Gulf late this week.”

While SE TX is currently outside the “error cone” and direct impacts appear unlikely, Lindner says that its important to closely monitor forecasts for any changes in the track.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 9PM on Monday, 10/5/2020 based on data from the NHC and HCFCD

1133 Days since Hurricane Harvey

These warnings were just issued by Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the National Hurricane Center, and City of Houston:

Hurricane warnings issued from San Luis Pass into Louisiana.

Landfall of a devastating hurricane likely between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass tomorrow night.

Rush to complete preparations to protect life and property.

Heed all evacuation recommendations.

Discussion

Laura – now a hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph – is continuing to intensify. The hurricane will likely rapidly intensify over the next 24-36 hours, right up to landfall along the upper TX coast. The National Hurricane Center predicts Laura will become a major hurricane with sustained winds over 110 mph by tomorrow night or early Thursday morning when it makes landfall somewhere between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass.

Track:

Everyone should be planning for the landfall of a very serious hurricane between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass on the Louisiana border. Additional shifts in the track are possible that could bring the core of Laura into Galveston Bay and Harris/Galveston Counties.

The large wind field will result in strong winds likely 100-150 miles inland across east Texas.

Prepare for power outages extending well inland along with significant wind damage and extended outages.

Intensity:

Prepare for the impact of a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher). Once the inner core of Laura forms, significant intensification is likely, and conditions look very favorable for intensification.

Tropical Storm force winds will begin along the coast at around 8:00 pm Wednesday evening.

Advice from City, Lake Status

“Rainfall amounts in the Lake Houston Watershed over the next six days are expected to be 2 – 4 inches with isolated accumulation of 6 inches possible,” said Dave Martin. “Currently, the Lake Houston Watershed is dry and the projected impact to our area will be to our east with the largest possible impact expected along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. Lake Houston is already down one foot from normal pool with the possibility of being lowered additionally, if necessary. Please make sure all property along the shoreline is secured in the event additional lowering is ordered.”

“Regardless of where this storm lands,” said Martin, “it is important all residents prepare themselves and have a plan. Hurricane Laura will likely be similar to Ike with severe wind impacts and power outages. The City of Houston has prepared resources to help you get ready for upcoming disasters and make sure you are prepared for this one. Please visit www.readyhoustontx.gov to learn more.

Actions

Prepare for the landfall of a major hurricane along the SE TX coast
Bring in anything in your yard, such as lawn furniture, that could become airborne.
All preparations will be to be competed by 6:00 p.m. Wednesday evening.
Heed all evacuation orders.

For hurricane preparation tips from the National Weather Service, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Tag Archive for: major hurricane

Delta Explodes into Hurricane; Should Become Major Hurricane by Wednesday; Track Shifts Slightly West