Tag Archive for: Lindner

Latest NHC Forecasts Show Francine Aiming for Louisiana

9/10/24 – Update: At 7 PM, the National Hurricane Center announced that Francine became a hurricane with sustained winds of 75 MPH and higher gusts. By 10:20, hurricane hunter aircraft found sustained winds of 85 MPH with central pressure of 979 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. Other details have not changed much since 4PM. See below.

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update shows Tropical Storm Francine taking aim for Louisiana. Its impacts will likely diminish in the Houston area. However, tropical storm warnings and watches now extend past Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama, as the forecast track shifts farther east.

Francine at 3:46 PM CDT, 9/10/24

Francine Winds and Forward Speed

At 4 PM, Francine still packed 65 MPH winds with higher gusts. But NHC expects it to reach hurricane strength tonight. By convention, storms become hurricanes at 74 MPH.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle. NHC forecasts that Francine could reach 80 knots/92 MPH at landfall in central Louisiana. If accurate, that would put it just shy of a Category 2 hurricane.

Hurricane hunter aircraft found that pressure in the central core had dropped to 987 mb. The storm has become better organized with increased banding.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. To put that in perspective, Beaumont is 175 miles from Baton Rouge, which is in central Louisiana.

Two NHC graphics depict the probability of damaging winds reaching the Houston area. The first shows the north Houston area has a 5-10 percent chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.

The second shows we have a zero percent chance of experiencing hurricane force winds.

Track

According to NHC, Francine has made a turn toward the northeast and increased its forward motion to 10+ MPH. It should reach the central Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. A continued northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected tonight and Wednesday.

Surge

We still can expect storm surge in coast areas all the way from Freeport to the Florida Panhandle.

With that comes the associated risk of rip currents.

Rainfall

Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding in those locations.

However, Jeff Linder, Harris County’s meteorologist less than an inch of rain in the Lake Houston Area.

We barely have a chance for flash flooding. And significant rainfall accumulations will be concentrated east of Texas.

5-Day Accumulated Rainfall Predictions from the National Weather Service

While the Lake Houston Area may be spared the storm’s worst effects, the Mississippi Valley won’t. NHC predicts significant flooding for that area.

Today Is Statistical Peak of Hurricane Season

Today is the statistical peak of hurricane season and Francine makes our sixth named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

To put that in perspective, during the last 30 years, we usually have had 10 named storms by September 4 and 11 by September 14. So despite early dire warnings, this season has been less severe than normal.

The 2017 hurricane season should remind us all that it only takes one storm to change lives forever. Pray for our neighbors to the east. And remain vigilant.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/24

2569 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 69 since Beryl


TS Francine Will Now Likely Strike East of Houston

9/9/24 – 7 PM update – Francine is strengthening faster than expected. Current sustained winds are 65 MPH and NHC predicts the storm will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. The post below was written at 2PM this afternoon.

This morning Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 intensified and formed a center of circulation. With winds currently at 60 MPH, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named it Tropical Storm Francine. NHC expects it to intensify into a hurricane tomorrow. Francine’s current predicted track will take it inland over Louisiana.

At the moment, models suggest the worst of the storm will miss Houston to the south and the east.

At 1 PM CDT, TS Francine was still between Brownsville, TX and the Yucatan.

Watches and Warnings Now In Effect

As of Monday at 2 PM CDT, NHC had issued the following watches and warnings:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

  • High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
  • Vermilion Bay
  • Lake Maurepas
  • Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

  • The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
  • Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
  • East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
  • East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
  • Lake Pontchartrain
  • Lake Maurepas

Likely Track

The western edge of the cone of uncertainty extends westward to far east Texas.

Note, however, that the cone does not indicate the width of the storm. It simply means that the center of the storm has an equal chance of passing over every point within the cone. Because the storm is currently 160 miles wide, if Francine made landfall toward the western edge of the cone, the Houston area could see significant impacts.

Still, models agree that the storm will likely make landfall in Louisiana.

Storm Surge

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to flood from
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
  • Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
  • Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
  • High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk-reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.

Winds Approaching 86 MPH

Francine is moving at 5 MPH. NHC expects winds to peak at 75 knots (86 MPH) within 48 hours. That would make Francine a Category 1 Hurricane. Cat 1 ranges from 74 to 95 MPH.

The highest winds will likely focus on southern Louisiana.

Tropical storm force winds could be felt in the Houston area as early as late tomorrow afternoon into evening.

However, the most likely arrival times will be approximately 12 hours earlier.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, feels, “There is a 30-50% chance of TS force winds on Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and a 10-20% chance of tropical-storm-force winds across the metro-Houston area.”

“Squalls and bands of rain will begin to move into the outer coastal waters on Tuesday and spread toward the coast. Some of the activity is likely to impact the coastal counties Tuesday night into Wednesday depending on the exact track.”

“Hurricane conditions may graze our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon, but at this time the probability of sustained hurricane force winds along the upper Texas coast is generally 5-10% from roughly Freeport to Sabine Pass,” said Lindner.

Rainfall and Flooding

According to NHC, Francine will bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding to portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.

Lindner predicts, “Rainfall amounts over SE TX have generally been pulled back some with the eastward track shifts and it is likely the core of heaviest rainfall will remain offshore. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected along the coast with amounts of generally less than an inch inland of US 59.”

Whew. Keep your fingers crossed and hope that Francine stays south of us. We haven’t even finished cleanup from Beryl yet.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/24 at 2PM

2568 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 63 since Beryl

New Forecasts Show Latest Disturbance Now Moving Toward Gulf

8/1/24 – 7PM Update – Since posting this story earlier today, NHC has shifted its predictions even farther west and increased development chances to 40% in two cays and 70% in 7 days.

8/1/24, 9 AM – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a well-defined tropical wave is now moving toward the Gulf. This represents a significant change from earlier predictions that took the storm east of Florida.

The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Location as of 8/1/24 at 9AM CDT

Development Chances

Development of this system should occur slowly during the next two days. Environmental conditions will soon become more conducive for development. And a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The system has a 20% chance of formation in the next 2 days and a 60% chance in the next 7.

National Hurricane Center

NHC and others have discussed this tropical wave for about a week now. In the last 2 days, shower and thunderstorm development has become better organized, but there is still no defined circulation at the surface at this time.

The wave axis should reach Cuba by early this weekend. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, land interaction will likely prevent any sort of significant development in the near term – unless a center forms either south or north of the inlands.

Likely Track

Toward this weekend it is now likely that the wave will enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the steering patterns become highly complex.

Forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty. Different models show numerous outcomes in the eastern Gulf during the next 5-7 days.

Weak Storm Likely at This Point

Intensity forecasts are also very uncertain at this point. Most models predict a weak system. But once a defined surface center forms, intensification looks likely.

Factors Supporting Development

Lindner points to three factors supporting eventual development.

Conditions supporting intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico include:

  • Very warm sea surface temperatures
  • Light wind shear
  • Potential for dual outflow channels aloft.

Role of Dual Outflow Channels in Formation

Meteorologists frequently talk about shear and sea surface temperatures in relation to hurricane formation. But they talk less often about the importance of outflow channels. How do outflow channels support hurricane formation?

Dual outflow channels are important in hurricane formation because they can enhance the efficiency and intensity of a storm.

According to ChatGPT, they provide:

  1. Enhanced Ventilation: This allows the hurricane to expel air more efficiently, promoting a stronger inflow at the surface.
  2. Symmetrical Structure: With outflow in multiple directions, the hurricane maintains a more symmetrical structure.
  3. Lower Pressure: Efficient outflow channels contribute to lowering the central pressure of the hurricane. Lower pressure at the core leads to higher wind speeds and a more powerful storm.
  4. Sustained Intensification: Dual outflow channels can support sustained intensification by continually removing air from the upper levels, allowing the storm to draw in warm, moist air from the ocean surface.
  5. Balanced Energy Distribution: The channels help distribute energy more evenly around the storm, preventing one side from becoming too dominant and potentially disrupting the hurricane’s structure.

Dual outflow channels thus help enhance the structural integrity, efficiency, and intensity of hurricanes.

Preparations

At this time, no one predicts that the storm will reach as far west as Houston. But last week, no one predicted that it would reach the Gulf either.

As always, your best bet is to be prepared for anything. Restock food, water and batteries used after Beryl. Recharge your backups. And monitor the NHC daily.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/24

2529 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Beryl Becomes Earliest Cat 5 Hurricane Ever

7/2/24 – Beryl has become an incredibly intense hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 MPH and a central pressure of 935mb. See this Infrared Satellite Loop at Tropical Tidbits. This is an unprecedented hurricane event for July.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record since 1851. It beats out hurricane Emily (2005), which became a Category 5 on July 17.

Beryl is now moving through the central Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

Status Overview as of 8 AM 7/2/24

Based on NOAA aircraft data, hurricane force winds (75mph) extend outward 40 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds (40mph) extend outward 125 miles from the center.

Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph.

On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today. It should pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.

Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as it passes Jamaica and the Caymans.

Intensity Forecast Uncertain

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautions that Beryl’s intensity forecast is rather uncertain. Model guidance indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later on, factors such as:

  • Possible interaction with the Jamaican elevated terrain
  • Dry air intrusions
  • Structure of the vertical wind shear

…will all play a role in the rate of weakening.

As Beryl approaches the Yucatan, models show quite a wide range of solutions – from a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane. However, the NHC forecast shows Beryl reaching the Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 hours and emerging as a tropical storm into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Track Shifted North

Beryl has tracked slightly north of predictions during the last 12 hours. This is likely due to the much stronger intensity of the hurricane.

Overall the direction has been trending north over the last 24 hours. Beryl is being steered by a strong high pressure ridge to the north. A W to WNW motion through the next 72 hours is likely. That will likely bring core of the hurricane to the eastern Yucatan early Friday morning.

Beryl will cross into the southern Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend. At that time, the current ridge of high pressure over the southern plains will be breaking down and moving east. Low pressure should replace it, pulling Beryl a little more to north, compared to the current track.

However, there is also uncertainty with the track in the Gulf of Mexico. It is difficult to tell how organized Beryl will be when it emerges from the Yucatan. It is also difficult to predict how quickly the southern plains high will break down.

Such factors also will affect the forward speed of the hurricane.  

Due to Beryl’s high forward speed, it could drop a foot of rain on Jamaica. But as it slows in the Gulf…

Lindner urges people along the Texas and Louisiana coast to monitor Beryl’s progress closely. NHC is now updating information on Beryl every few hours on this page.

For those who need a refresher course in hurricane preparation, ReduceFlooding’s Links page contains advice from 19 authoritative sources.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/2/24

2499 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flash Flooding Chances Increase for Tuesday, Wednesday

6/16/24 – 8 PM update – As of 8 PM, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation to 70% from 50% for the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.

Excessive rainfall and flash flooding chances are increasing for the middle part of the week. Coastal counties could see 8-11 inches in widespread areas with isolated totals topping 12 inches.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner:

  • The I-10 corridor could experience 5-8 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 10 inches
  • North of I-10, people will see 3-5 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 8 inches.
  • Much of the rainfall will come over a 36-48 hour period (Tuesday and Wednesday).
National Weather Service gives most of Harris County a 3 out of 4 chance for excessive rainfall.

All of this rain is in association with a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation for that red area in the Gulf to 70%.

Whether the storm gets a name or not, it will impact the Houston area in several ways.

Forecasts have been trending upward with rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours. Given the incoming tropical moisture combined with the potential for cell training and high hourly rainfall rates, flash flooding is becoming an increasing concern.

Sustained heavy rains will be possible from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday over the area.

High hourly rainfall rates will result in rapid onset flash flooding.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Uncertainty remains as to where any sustained banding features will form and how far inland the heavy rainfall threat may extend. Stay tuned for changes to the forecast.

Last week, NWS was predicting far less rain from this system.

Significant Rises Likely on Waterways

Significant rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers will be likely given the rainfall forecast. Where maximum totals occur, overbank flooding will be possible on creeks and bayous. Rivers which are still elevated from the spring rainfall will also likely see additional rises. However, flooding will depend on the position, magnitude, and coverage of the heavier rains and the inland extent.   

Lake Conroe Being Lowered

In preparation, the San Jacinto River Authority continues to lower Lake Conroe. On Sunday morning, it was at 200.82 feet, several inches below its normal level of 201 feet. At 10 AM, SJRA was discharging 660 cubic feet per second.

Lake Houston Discharge Rate Jumps 7X

Downriver, the Coastal Water Authority increased the discharge rate from Lake Houston. The rate jumped from 1386 CFS to 9,905 CFS between 5 AM and 7 AM this morning.

Note steep jump in discharge rate at the far right.

Gusty Winds, Coastal Flooding, Dangerous Seas

As the much-advertised tropical weather event unfolds over the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 24 hours, Lindner anticipates increasing impacts, especially along the Texas Coast.

The plume of tropical moisture will arrive late tonight into Monday. Scattered showers will begin to work toward the coast tonight. Even greater moisture will flow inland Tuesday and Wednesday.

Banding thunderstorms and cell training will create potential for flash flooding. Models have trended upwards in the last 24 hours. The National Weather Service has given all areas south of I-10 a level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.

Wind Forecast

According to Lindner, winds will begin to increase on Monday, but really ramp up Tuesday into Wednesday. Coastal areas will likely experience frequent gusts to gale force.

  • Coastal waters: 35-45mph
  • Coastal counties: 25-40mph
  • Inland: 25-30mph

Coastal Flooding Likely Mid-Week During High Tides

Lindner expects building seas and elevated tides to exceed coastal flood thresholds along the upper Texas coast, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Total water levels are forecasted to reach 4.5-5.5 feet above barnacle level along the Gulf facing beaches late Tuesday into Wednesday and 4.0-5.0 feet in Galveston Bay.

Minor coastal flooding is likely late Tuesday into Wednesday in the usual low lying coastal areas (Bolivar, west end of Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway, Tiki Island, San Leon, Seabrook, Shoreacres).

Water and debris may cover portions of HWY 87 near HWY 124 on Bolivar at high tide. Low lying coastal roads will likely be impacted and covered with sea water at times of high tide.

10-12 Foot Seas

Lindner also warns that extreme dangerous/hazardous marine conditions will develop across all waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will build 5-9 feet on Tuesday offshore and 4-6 feet in bays. Then they will build 10-12 feet on Wednesday offshore and 5-7 feet in bays.

Sustained winds of 30-40mph with frequent gusts of 45mph will be common across our local waters. Expect frequent squalls and periods of heavy rainfall and reduced visibility. Small craft should be secured in port by late Monday and remain in port until conditions improve.  

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/16/24 based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, and NWS

2483 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Does Wet Spring Portend Intense Hurricane Season?

Does a wetter-than-normal spring say anything about Houston’s chances for a busier-than-normal hurricane season? According to Jeff Linder, Harris County’s meteorologist, the two correlate poorly. In the process of exploring that, I discovered some surprising facts about the intensity and seasonality of rainfall in the region.

So Far, Not So Much Wetter than Normal

“Harris County is running slightly above normal for 2024,” says Lindner. “But much of this can be traced back to the rains in late January.”

“I would likely attribute the winter and early Spring rains more to the El Niño pattern in the eastern and central Pacific,” he added. “They tend to bring above-normal rainfall to the southern plains in the fall, winter, and spring months.”

“As for the upcoming hurricane season, there is little correlation between slightly above average rainfall and any sort of potential activity on the Texas coast. With that said, conditions look highly favorable for an active hurricane season in 2024 including very warm sea surface temperatures throughout the Atlantic basin, the collapse of El Nino and development of La Niña.”

Lindner concluded, “That tends to create increasingly favorable conditions for tropical development, especially in the Caribbean Sea, and a wetter than normal pattern from the coast of Africa into the Caribbean.”

The graphs below explain Lindner’s characterization of the temperature and rainfall as “slightly” above normal as we head into hurricane season.

I pulled them from the climate page for Houston on Weather.gov. The National Weather Service (NWS) shows 35 different reporting stations in the Houston region and gives you nine ways to visualize daily, monthly and yearly data.

As I browsed the site, I discovered two interesting things. When you look at monthly averages:

  • Rainfall totals differ greatly depending on your part of Houston.
  • Seasonality of rainfall also differs depending on your area.

Let’s look at the two variables using data and graphs from the climate page above.

Rainfall YTD vs. Highs, Lows, Averages

Bush Intercontinental Airport received about 21 inches of rain (YTD through May 12). In late January and February, Bush was having the rainiest year on record. But since then, despite very heavy rains to the north, we’ve only beaten the average YTD figures by a slight amount, as Lindner observed.

Meanwhile, Galveston started out with record rainfall. Only in the last two or three weeks did it fall behind the record year (1949). Galveston is still about 50% above its average total YTD.

In Conroe, rainfall totals have flirted all year with the record high year of 1935. They only dipped below average for a week or so in January.

Rainiest Months Vary with Distance from Coast

At Bush Intercontinental Airport, June (#1) and October (#2) are the rainiest months with May ranking #3.

But at Galveston’s Scholes Field, May is the ninth rainiest month and September the wettest. September is the peak of hurricane season.

In Conroe, May is the wettest month.

Spring rains play a larger role in the yearly total the farther north you go. But in Galveston, the totals jump up during hurricane season.

Not too much of a surprise there. Many fronts lose their punch before reaching the coast in the winter and spring months. Likewise, many tropical disturbances lose their punch 90 miles inland during the summer and fall – hurricane season.

What Data Illustrates

This data illustrates that it’s hard to generalize about the weather. You can’t take one storm (or even a series of storms) in one location and posit it as proof of a larger trend. Too many factors govern the weather to do that.

Moreover, my rain gage is reading 142% of the YTD figures from the nearest official gage at IAH just seven miles away.

That’s not uncommon. Sometimes a rain bomb lands on your home. Thunderstorms train over you for hours. Or a front stalls when it reaches your address. Those things can skew your perception of the weather.

That said, all the experts are still warning of a much higher-than-normal hurricane season this year. But for reasons unrelated to local flooding.

Happy Mother’s Day

Let me close this Mother’s Day with some beauty from Mother Nature. The son of a friend captured this image while flying around the storm that slammed north Houston on May 9th. He was at 30,000 feet and the clouds topped out at 70,000 feet as the sun was setting.

Photo courtesy of reader. Used with permission.

The power of the photo above should remind you. If you somehow missed it, we just finished Hurricane Preparedness Week. Have you made your preparations for hurricane season yet?

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/12/24

2448 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Increasing Release Rate After Torrential Rain

5/2/24 Noon Update: Since publishing this, Lake Conroe has continued to rise and the SJRA has increased the release rate to 66,100 CFS. – Heavy storms dumped 10-12 inches of rain in isolated areas north of Lake Conroe last night. Most areas experienced 5-7 inches. As a result, Lake Conroe has increased its release rate to 60,455 cubic feet per second and it could go higher.

The area north of Lake Conroe has received more than 17 inches in the last week.

Engineers are currently modeling several different scenarios. The current inflow is more than two times greater than the outflow. The current release rate is already the second highest in the history of Lake Conroe.

Source: SJRA as of 10:00 AM 5.2.24.

Current Situation

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, significant flash flooding is ongoing from north of HWY 105 to southern Montgomery County and the northern portions of Harris County.

At 8:27 am, radar showed the storm had moved into northern Harris, and northern Liberty Counties.

RadarScope Pro Screen Capture at 8:23 AM, 5.2.24, Orange indicates 5″.

It dumped 6 inches of rain in my gauge in two hours. And the total is still climbing.

Such high hourly rainfall rates result in street flooding. Lindner warned people not to travel unless absolutely necessary.

According to Lindner, “There may be a break in the activity in the afternoon hours before another complex of storms arrives overnight into Friday morning with additional heavy rainfall. But confidence in the forecast is not high.”

Impact of Rains

“Significant rainfall has also occurred over the headwaters of the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. New flood waves will certainly be generated on both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River,” Lindner added. The same holds true for Lake Livingston and the Trinity River.

The heavy runoff over already saturated grounds will migrate downstream Friday into the weekend. 

The SJRA does not have a dam on the East Fork and can’t control it. Dam releases on the West Fork do not impact the East Fork, but do impact Lake Houston.

Lake Conroe Release Rate Increasing, Max Uncertain

Lake Conroe virtually quadrupled its release rate from 17,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) at 7 AM to 60,455 CFS at 9:45 AM.

The lake level at 10:48 AM had reached 204.4 – 3.4 feet above normal.

Mark Micheletti, San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) board member, said that SJRA engineers are modeling several release scenarios. So the ultimate release rate is uncertain as of this writing.

The flowage easement at Lake Conroe is 207. That’s the elevation at which homes start to flood.

Some people will criticize the SJRA for not releasing more water sooner. However, it was not an easy call.

Lake Houston was already flooding from the East Fork. And a massive release coming down the West Fork could have flooded homes.

Micheletti added, “Hydrographs are useless in a situation like this because you don’t yet know what the release will be,” he added.

During Harvey, the SJRA released 79,000 CFS. So, they are already at 75 percent of the devastating Harvey release rate.

But even with that, the current release rate is only about one third of the estimated water coming into the lake. “So that’s our challenge,” said Micheletti. The release rate will almost certainly go higher.”

The Harris County Flood Warning system showed that the San Jacinto West Fork is still within banks, but that likely won’t last long.

Before the heavy rains moved south this morning, river gages on the East and West Forks were dropping slowly as floodwaters receded from earlier in the week. But we’re about to experience a second wave there.

If you’re in a place that has flooded before, the safest course of action is to start developing an action plan now.

River Predictions

At 10 AM, Lindner released new hydrographs for the West Fork, East Fork, and the area below Lake Houston.

West Fork

As of 10 AM, 5.2.24

A rise to flood stage will occur today with a rise above major flood levels on Friday. Widespread low land flooding near the river is expected. The forecast may need to be increased more because of the uncertainty over Lake Conroe releases.

While there will be widespread low land flooding, the lowest structures in Kingwood are not impacted until over 60-62ft. Expect this level of water in the river to create backwater in tributaries that could lead to additional flooding.

A reader sent in this photo of the new Northpark South development between the West Fork and Sorters-McClellan Road.

NorthPark South already underwater from rains. 5.2.24 at 11 AM. Photo by Jody Binnion.

East Fork

A significant rise on the East Fork is expected as the upstream flood wave moves downstream. Forecasted water levels will reach 6-8 ft higher than earlier this week. This expected flood level will be higher than TS Imelda and will be similar to October 1994. Even elevated structures may be flooded, according to Lindner.

Below Lake Houston

Other Flooding

As I write this, I have received word that Taylor Gully is flooding and parts of nearby streets are closed.

White Oak Creek is also flooding. Royal Pines, the new development on White Oak at the northern end of West Lake Houston Parkway, has also flooded neighbors’ yards and a garage.

Flash flooding is ongoing along Willow and Spring Creeks, which are rising rapidly. Flooding along these creeks is becoming likely. Widespread street flooding and some structure flooding is possible.

A training band of thunderstorms will produce another 2-4 inches of rainfall on top of the already 4-6 inches that has fallen in these watersheds.

Pardon the pun, but the situation is very fluid. Sometimes new information comes in faster than I can update it.

I will post updates including photos when the rain lets up.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 10:00 AM on 5/2/24

2438 Days since Hurricane Harvey

April 10th Storm Dumps 12-17 Inches in 12 Hours East of Houston

The April 10th storm that swept through Houston during the early morning hours dumped amazing amounts of rainfall just east of here.

A report received today from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner says that the April 10th storm dumped 12-17 inches of rain in a 12 hour period in a swatch across East Texas. The result: widespread, catastrophic flooding in parts of Newton, Jasper, Hardin, and Tyler Counties.

A peak total of 17.68 inches was recorded near Kirbyville, TX. Lindner characterized the totals as “insanely high.” In fact, NOAA’s Atlas 14 rainfall chart for Kirbyville lists a 12-hour/17-inch rainfall as a 1000-year event.

NOAA’s Atlas 14 Rainfall Probability Statistics for Kirbyville, TX area.

Late yesterday morning, Weather.com reported that a Disaster Declaration had been issued for Jasper County, Texas. Officials there said that multiple people were rescued from both homes and vehicles due to flooding in the area. “The city of Kirbyville remains underwater.”

April 10th Storm Rivaled Tax Day Storm

The squall line which started near the Rio Grande around 9:30 pm Monday evening traveled some 800 miles reaching the FL panhandle producing wind damage and tornadoes along much of the path.

According to Lindner, “This should serve as a reminder that when the flash flood ingredients are in place around here, it can rain, and rain a lot, in a very short period of time.”

Some 12-hour rainfall totals were near those of the April 2016 (Tax Day) Storm. It is worth noting that yesterday’s event took place at nearly the same time of year.

The flash flooding developed along a stalled low-level convergence boundary. An influx of tropical moisture and repeat cell training anchored on the boundary for much of the night fed the high totals.

“This was a classic meso-scale flash-flood event common along the Gulf coast,” said Lindner.

High resolution computer models suggested the heaviest rainfall would occur over central Louisiana. So this caught many forecasters off guard.

Tornadoes, Too

The April 10th storm also produced several tornados including one that briefly touched down south of the Katy Freeway inside of SH99.

EF-1 tornado with maximum wind speeds of 90mph touched down around 2:45 am just west of Mason Rd south of Kingsland. It tracked generally eastward toward Fry Rd.

Damage along the east side of Mason Rd was consistent with low-end EF-1 rating. It included lifting and movement of vehicles in a parking lot, the complete failure and collapse of a Tire Shop, blow-out of windows, and failure of roofing on a nearby strip center.

The storm also lofted a commercial AC unit on the top of the strip center and dumped it in the parking lot.

Wind damage continued eastward along and south of Cimarron Pkwy toward Fry Rd.

The wind snapped and uprooted numerous trees through this area and blew down several fences. A corridor of damage continued eastward, but there was little evidence of a full fledged tornado at that point.

Winds estimates in the residential areas between Mason and Fry Rd were on the order of 65-75mph – an EF-0 rating.

Lindner says that these types of tornadoes are common along the leading edge of intense squall lines. Bows or “kinks” develop in the line, enhancing low-level rotation, which results in quick, short-lived, weak tornados. 

The path lasted 1.7 miles and width ranged from 300 to 400 yards.

The maximum intensity reached EF-1 (90mph) on east side of Mason Road.

Maximum Winds

High winds were reported in numerous places through the Houston/Galveston area.

  • 62 MPH at Hooks Airport in Tomball
  • 55-59 MPH in Galveston, Pearland, Palacios and Fulshear
  • 65 MPH in Dickinson
  • 71 MPH in San Leon
  • 72 MPH at an oil platform offshore High Island

Lake Houston Area

The Harris County Flood Warning System recorded:

  • 1.96 inches at US59 and the West Fork.
  • 2.16 inches at West Lake Houston Parkway and the West Fork.
  • 3.00 inches in Huffman
  • 4.92 inches farther east along Luce Bayou at 321.

Notice the trend as you move farther east?

All things considered, the Lake Houston Area lucked out. We got enough rain to green up the grass, but not so much that people flooded.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/11/2024

2418 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Upstream Watersheds’ Relative Contributions to Lake Houston Area Flooding

What are upstream watersheds’ relative contributions to Lake Houston Area flooding? During a flood, where does all the water come from? Of course, it depends on how much rain falls where and when, and how long it takes to concentrate downstream. Rainfall is rarely uniform across an entire region.

But still, when considering hundreds of events over time, variations tend to average out. So, considering a hypothetical scenario that assumes a uniform distribution of rain can yield useful insights for planning flood-mitigation and conservation efforts.

Revisiting the January Flood

During late January 2024, the north and west Houston areas experienced widespread flooding. Even though most of the rain didn’t fall around Lake Houston, excess stormwater worked its way downstream over several days and wound up flooding the area. This caused widespread confusion.

During the event, many people put all the blame for downstream flooding on the 19,500 cubic-foot-per-second release from Lake Conroe. However, river gages showed upstream flooding in other watersheds as well. They included Lake Creek, Cypress Creek, Spring Creek and the West Fork below Lake Conroe.

Rainfall is rarely uniformly distributed across a region as large as Houston. But it’s not just how much falls where. The size of a watershed and how it converges with others also affect downstream flooding.

Hypothetical Uniformly Distributed 100-Year Rainfall

That prompted an interesting question that I asked Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist.

Given uniform rainfall throughout the region, how much would each upstream watershed contribute to Lake Houston Area flooding during a 100-year rain?

Lindner worked with engineers at the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) to calculate the volumes below. Eleven different watersheds from seven counties feed into Lake Houston.

The table below summarizes their size in square miles, calculates the acre-feet of runoff in a 100-year event, and then determines each watershed’s percentage of the total passing through Lake Houston.

Upstream watersheds’ relative contributions to Lake Houston Area flooding. Assumes uniform distribution of rainfall throughout region.

The map below shows the location of each of the eleven contributing watersheds with the percentages above superimposed.

Map courtesy of SJRA. Percentages courtesy of Jeff Lindner and SJRA. Only watersheds draining through Lake Houston were considered for this exercise.

Observations

What can we conclude from these numbers? If rainfall is evenly distributed across the region:

  • Lake Conroe releases aren’t the only thing contributing to Lake Houston Area floods. SJRA controls only 13% of the runoff. That’s because the Lake Conroe Dam is the only dam in the eleven watersheds draining into Lake Houston.
  • Watersheds vary radically in their size – 7.5X. So we need to be careful when generalizing about the contribution of different areas to flooding.
  • 37% of the runoff coming into Lake Houston comes via the East Fork San Jacinto and its sub-watersheds.
  • 63% comes under the I-69 bridge into the West Fork between Humble and Kingwood.
  • 35% of the region’s drainage comes down the West Fork and passes through an area between I-45 and I-69 with 20 square miles of sand mines.
  • In total, almost 2 million acre feet will drain into Lake Houston during a 100-year rain.

The implications of that last fact for flood mitigation are enormous.

The total volume of water during a 1% (100-year) storm reaching Lake Houston would fill Lake Conroe 4.75 times.

One hydrologist I consulted for this post said, “I don’t know the exact amount of detention storage needed to significantly reduce flooding risks in Kingwood, but it will probably be at least another Lake Conroe’s worth of storage. That may help drive home the challenge facing HCFCD, SJRA, COH, and Montgomery County.”

And the money to accomplish that will likely take State and Federal backing.

Reviewing watersheds’ relative contributions to Lake Houston Area flooding may also be helpful in:

  • Visualizing where water comes from in a flood.
  • Determining the optimal locations for potential, regional, stormwater-detention basins/dams, such as those proposed along tributaries of Spring Creek.
  • Focusing conservation efforts, such as the Bayou Land Conservancy’s recent dedication of a preserve along Lake Creek.
  • Controlling sedimentation, i.e., planning for the retirement of West Fork sand mines, which have become leaky sieves.
  • Sand-trap placement.

As always, nothing clears brain fog faster than clean data, well summarized and presented. My thanks to Jeff Lindner and the SJRA for their help with this post.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/10/27

2385 Days since Hurricane Harvey

For Most, Life Returned to Normal Today, But Flooding Is Not Done Yet

5PM 1/25/24 – After four days of near constant rainfall, life returned to normal this morning. The sun came out. Birds sang. But for some, the ordeal is not done yet.

Crests on several creeks and area rivers are moving downstream and should converge on the Lake Houston Area this weekend.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, waves of water are still working their way down through our river systems. Low lying areas along both forks are already flooding upstream

Another disturbance will likely produce a few showers Friday afternoon into the evening hours, but accumulations will likely not top a half inch, according to Lindner.

Then dry and cooler weather over the weekend will give the area a chance to dry out. And rivers, creeks, and streams will have time to recede.

Lake Updates

Reservoirs throughout the region are passing large inflows through their gates.

At 5PM, Lake Conroe was three feet above normal and releasing 19,435 cubic feet per second adding to peaks on the West Fork San Jacinto.

Lake Houston was two feet above normal. Its floodgates have remained wide open since last Sunday and water is pouring over the spillway portion of the dam.

River Forecasts Show Peaks Traveling Downstream

Throughout today, flooding continued along several creeks and rivers as upstream flood waves moved downstream. Many of the creeks will be cresting today and falling while several of the rivers will continue to rise into Friday and the weekend as run-off accumulates and moves downstream.

Upper Spring Creek: 

upstream of Hegar Road, Spring Creek has crested and is starting to fall quickly. It is near crest from Hegar Road downstream to SH 249. Conditions along the creek and the bridge crossings west of SH 249 will improve into tonight. The creek is still rising downstream of FM 2978 and some minor low land flooding will be possible near the creek banks tonight.  

Attempts to cross some of the bridges this morning resulted in high water rescues. Never drive into high water.

Little Mound/Upper Cypress Creeks: 

Mound Creek has crested and begun a very slow fall. The flood wave has reached Sharp Rd. on upper Cypress Creek and Cypress is rising. It will get to or just over bankfull tonight. Portions of Sharp Rd. may become flooded.

Flow may get high down at Katy Hockley. But at this time Lindner is not expecting any widespread impacts at or downstream of Katy Hockley as the capacity of the channel increases from Katy Hockley to US 290.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River: 

The river leveled off today, but will begin a second rise tonight into Friday. Upstream flows at SH 242 and SH 99 as well as flows from Lake Creek are moving downstream.

The US 59 turn arounds under the US 59 bridge are under water and will remain flooded well into the weekend.

Note flooded turnarounds under US59 bridge at noon 1/25/24.

Several streets on the north bank of the river are flooded including Lakeshore, Northshore, River Bend, and Lake Point.

Car parked on Lake Point Drive south of Hamblen Road this morning. West Fork in background.

The majority of the flooding will occur south of Hamblen Road, according to Lindner.

Homes south of Hamblen next to West Fork on 1/25/24 around 9AM.

However, he says a few locations north of Hamblen could see high water. And I took this photo West of 59 near the river this morning. Homes there were already surrounded by floodwaters.

South of Sorters-McClellan and West of US59, 10AM on 1/24/25

Most structures in these areas are elevated and could potentially become cut-off into the weekend as water levels remain elevated.

Large portions of the Kingwood Golf course are or will be flooded.

Kings Harbor on 1/25/24 around noon.

Kings Harbor was well above water this morning, But the pier was not. Cue Mr. Clean.

At predicted levels, Lindner says that back water will also begin to affect tributary drainage channels into the river and higher than normal water is likely along tributaries such as Bens Branch. However, no flooding of homes is expected in Kingwood.

NWS river forecast for West Fork at 59 as of 4PM 1/25/24. River could rise another foot before cresting.
East Fork of the San Jacinto River:    

The river has exceeded its banks and will continue to rise into the weekend from north of Plum Grove to Lake Houston.

East Fork San Jacinto at FM2090 in Plum Grove, Liberty County at 1:30PM on 1/25/24

This afternoon, when I took the shot above, I visited the Plum Grove VFD and found high-water rescue teams prepping for tomorrow and the weekend.

FM 1485 west of the river bridge over the East Fork will be flooded and impassable for an extended period of time starting this afternoon.

Additionally, some roads on the west side of the river just downstream of FM 1485 will be flooded and elevated structures cut-off. Elevated structures downstream on the east river bank off River Terrace Rd. will be cut-off.

The East Fork is forecasted to remain well above flood stage through the weekend.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
The East Fork at FM1485 should crest on Saturday, almost 11 feet above its current level.
Rising East Fork waters submerged a boardwalk in Kingwood’s East End Park, 1/25/24, midday. Photo courtesy of Sandy Krish
Lower San Jacinto River below Lake Houston: 

Upstream flow through Lake Houston will route into the lower San Jacinto River with high flows lasting through the weekend. Minor flooding is forecasted along the river from below Lake Houston to Galveston Bay. Low lying areas of Sheldon, Banana Bend, and Rio Villa will experience flooding of roadways and may become cut-off (Rio Villa).

Higher than normal flows will impact vessel traffic around I-10 and vessels should be properly secured for a period of prolonged increased flows and high water levels.

Expect the river to rise another four feet downstream of the dam.
Trinity River: 

Major flooding is forecasted from below Lake Livingston to Goodrich and near Liberty. Some homes below the lake will be flooded. Several subdivisions will be cut-off around Liberty and at the current forecasted levels…widespread extensive flooding over portions of Liberty County near the river and its tributaries can be expected.

The Trinity should rise another 2.5 feet near Liberty.

For More Information

Conditions are changing rapidly. For the most current information, always go straight to the source,

Current water levels and inundation can be found at www.harriscountyfws.org

River forecast can be found at National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

‘Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/25/24 at 5PM based on information provided by Jeff Lindner‘Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/25/24 at 5PM based on information provided by Jeff Lindner

2340 Days since Hurricane Harvey