24% Ahead of Rainfall for Year, Houston Slips into Drought
10/18/24 – According to the US Drought Monitor, Houston has officially slipped into a moderate drought.

Talk about wacky weather. According to the National Weather Service, the Houston area has already recorded its average annual rainfall – with two and a half months left in the year.

NOAA shows that normally we receive 41.52 inches by October 18 in an average year. But so far this year, at IAH, the official recording station, we have received 51.2 inches.

So, we are 24% ahead of the average annual rainfall for this date … and in drought. But it gets even more wacky.
I live in the center of Kingwood just a few miles northeast of the airport. And my rain gage has recorded 64.58 inches so far. That’s 54% ahead of the average YTD rainfall.
Looking Ahead
The NWS Climate Prediction Center says that a weak La Niña has a 60% chance to emerge by November and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.

What does that mean for the Houston area?
Effect of La Niña on Texas Weather in Fall and Winter
According to ChatGPT, La Niña has significant impacts on Texas weather, especially during the fall and winter seasons. Here’s how La Niña typically affects Texas:
1. Warmer-than-Average Temperatures
- Fall and Winter in Texas during a La Niña event tend to be warmer than usual, especially in southern and central Texas. The jet stream tends to shift northward, allowing more warm air to persist over the state. This can lead to milder winters, especially compared to neutral or El Niño conditions.
2. Drier-than-Average Conditions
- La Niña often brings below-average rainfall to Texas, particularly in the southern and central regions. This is due to the altered jet stream pattern, which pushes storm tracks farther north, leaving Texas and much of the southern U.S. drier than normal. As a result, drought conditions can develop or worsen, especially in the winter months.
3. Increased Risk of Drought
- Because La Niña tends to cause drier-than-average conditions, it can exacerbate drought conditions. This is particularly concerning for Texas, which is prone to periodic droughts. Reduced winter rainfall means less moisture in the soil and reservoirs, affecting agriculture, water supply, and wildfire risks.
4. Wildfire Risk
With drier conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures, the risk of wildfires tends to increase during La Niña winters. This is especially the case in late fall and early winter when vegetation can become dry and more susceptible to fires.
What a wild ride this year has been!!! In the first half of the year, we thought we would drown. Now we could dry up and blow away.
Of course, all averages include extremes. By definition, they mask variation. And this year, they could mask a lot.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/18/24
2607 Days since Hurricane Harvey