Tag Archive for: hurricane outlook

Digest: Updates on Six Lake Houston Area Flood-Related Stories

Below is a quick digest of six flood-related stories affecting the Lake Houston Area.

Dredging is a Slow Go

Mechanical dredgers are slowly working their way through the channel south of Royal Shores. It connects the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto. Without dredging, the dredging equipment itself would not be able to make it through the channel.

However, the pace of the dredging is painfully slow. You can see the progress by comparing the two pictures below. I took them 22 days apart.

Taken on July 11, 2021
Taken on August 2, 2021.
Google Earth shows they went a little more than 600 feet in a little more than three weeks.

At about 200 feet per week with about 2,000 more feet to go, they should reach the East Fork in about another ten weeks.

Several boaters have commented on how the dredges can wait hours for a pontoon to ferry dirt back to the placement site. Their net takeaway: very inefficient. During a July 8 meeting at the Kingwood Community Center, Stephen Costello called this method of dredging “unsustainable.” He’s sooooo right. We will run out of luck long before we run out of places to dredge.

Mechanical dredging (shown in the photos above) is far slower and less efficient than hydraulic. Great Lakes hydraulic dredges removed 500,000 cubic yards of sediment from the mouth bar area in just two months – July and August of 2019. DRC’s mechanical dredges removed another 600,000+ cubic yards in the 19 months between January 2020 and July 2021.

Interestingly, Google Earth shows that when the dredgers reach the East Fork, they will be closer to the Triple PG Sand Mine in Porter than the current placement area south of River Grove Park. The Triple PG mine will also be less than half the distance of a mine that the Army Corps previously pumped spoils to from the mouth bar– the Eagle Sorters Mine on the West Fork.

Hmmmm. Triple PG. A placement area for East Fork spoils? A return to hydraulic dredging? Interesting thoughts.

Seasonal Lowering of Lake Conroe

Seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe has started as planned. SJRA is releasing 75 cubic feet per second, according to their dashboard.

Seasonal release is shown as a City of Houston (COH) Diversion.

When the lowering started on August 2, a day late, the lake was at 200.87. So releasing 75 CFS has brought the lake down .19 feet, a little more than 2 inches. Barring large rainfalls, this rate should reach the objective of 200 feet by September 1.

The Lake Conroe Association is still fighting the lowering in Montgomery County District Court. Judge Mike Mays set a hearing date for Tuesday, August 24, 2021 at 2PM.

Tropics Heating Up

Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook from National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center shows two areas of concern in the Atlantic as of 2PM, Friday August 6th.

A few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, a tropical wave (orange area) and a broad area of low pressure could turn into a tropical depression by late this weekend or early next week. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Another tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is a lower threat. NHC predicts development, if any, of this system will be slow and occur early next week. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

NOAA Issues Mid-Season Hurricane Outlook

Another forecast released two days ago by NOAA says that atmospheric conditions are still conducive for an above-average hurricane season. See their predictions in the right hand column below. These numbers include the five named storms so far this season.

Attorney General Lawsuit Against Triple PG Mine Still Active

Craig Pritzlaff of the TCEQ assures me that despite visible lack of progress in the Attorney General’s lawsuit against the Triple PG mine for illegal discharges, the AG has not dropped the case. “Indeed, very few, if any, cases referred to the AG for civil prosecution are ever dropped,” he says. “Litigation, particularly environmental litigation, is a complicated and lengthy process. That process was further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which halted court dockets across the State throughout 2020 and into 2021.”

Condos 250 Feet from 250,000 CFS

A Chinese developer is building yet more condos even closer to the West Fork in the Kings Harbor neighborhood.

See new construction bottom center. Lai finished the units at the right earlier this year.
The nearest unit above will be about 250 feet from the San Jacinto West Fork.

During Harvey, more than 250,000 cubic feet per second came through this area. It flooded homes and businesses more than 10,000 feet from the river.

The developer is also hoping to sell/develop that grassy area in the bottom center of the photo for $1.45 million.

I guess money has a short memory.

That concludes this month’s digest.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/6/2021

1438 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

National Hurricane Center Increases Prediction for 2020

After predicting that the 2020 hurricane season would be slightly above average earlier in the year, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts the season will be extremely active. An NHC outlook released Thursday indicates this season could almost double the average.

NHC predicts 19 to 25 named storms, though they do not predict how many will make landfall. Of those, NHC also predicts 7 to 11 will become hurricanes and 3 to 6 will become major hurricanes.

Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).

Factors Behind Change

Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are:

  • Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
  • Reduced vertical wind shear
  • Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds
  • An enhanced west African monsoon
  • Ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time. 

Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify. 

Underscores Need for Preparedness

Said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “It is now more important than ever to stay informed with our forecasts, have a preparedness plan, and heed guidance from local emergency management officials.”

“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.” 

Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/7/2020 based on predictions by the NHC

1074 Days since Hurricane Harvey