Hurricane Delta Archives - Reduce Flooding

Worst of Delta Will Miss Lake Houston Area to East

At 4 AM Friday, Delta, as predicted, is headed for Louisiana. Houston will, however, feel some wind. The National Weather Service forecast for the Lake Houston Area today indicates showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 74. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. I already have .2 inches of rain in my gage. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch are possible today, says the NWS.

Friday night the chance of showers decreases to 40 percent, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

*Outer bands of Hurricane Delta are already reaching the Houston Area.*

*Houston has a 30-40% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds, i.e., greater than 39 mph.*

*If those winds arrive, expect them between late morning and early afternoon.*

By tomorrow, Hurricane Delta should be a memory for us. Saturday will be sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

So what’s happening with Hurricane Delta at the moment? For those traveling south or east today, here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

Summary of Watches and Warnings in Effect

STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER LOUISIANA

HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS

Hurricane Delta Status

At 400 AM CDT, Delta is moving toward the north near 12 mph. National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects this motion to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds approach 120 mph with higher gusts.

Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure 953 mb (28.15 inches).

Not A Good Day to Travel East

The further east you go today toward Louisiana, the more danger. The core of the hurricane will strike the Louisiana coast this evening. Hazards include:

STORM SURGE:

A combination of dangerous storm surge and high tides will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground.

Port O’Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay…1-3 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA…4-7 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft

Small changes in Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. The deepest water will occur along the coast near and to the east of the landfall location. Large and dangerous waves will accompany surge. Stay tuned for possible changes and updates.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND:

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas later today.

RAINFALL:

Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

SURF:

Swells from Delta will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/9/2020 based on data from NWS and NHC

1137 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 386 after Imelda

Hurricane Delta Tracking East; Back up to Cat 3, But Houston Out of Cone

As of 4 PM Thursday, Delta has restrengthened into a category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph. One day before Delta makes landfall, it now appears that once again, the Lake Houston Area will miss the brunt of a vicious storm. Unfortunately, for the poor folks in Louisiana, it appears that Delta will take the same track that Laura did last month and ravage them once again.

At its 4 PM Thursday update, the National Hurricane Center shows Delta in the middle of the Gulf and headed toward Louisiana with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.

Warnings from Sargent, TX East

Folks east of High Island, TX remain under a hurricane warning. Those between Sargent, TX and High Island are under a tropical storm warning. A storm surge warning remains in effect for everyone between High Island and Mississippi.

Warnings mean that conditions are expected within the warning area, usually within 36 hours.

Projected Track; Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Out 160 miles

Forecast models are now strongly in agreement on the projected track. That still doesn’t mean the Lake Houston Area is in the clear. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.

*Here’s what Weather Live predicts the footprint of the storm will look like Friday morning at 7 AM. That blue dot represents Kingwood.*

Lake Houston Area Impacts

NHC now predicts we have a 60-70% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.

They most likely will arrive tomorrow morning around 8 A.M. Delta is moving NNW at around 15 miles per hour. According to Lindner, “Tropical storm force winds will be possible in the TS warning area, although this will be heavily dependent on the expansion of the wind field. Chambers and southern Liberty Counties have the greater risk of sustained tropical storm force winds. We could see sustained tropical storm force winds in and around Galveston Bay on Friday and over southeast Harris, Galveston, and coastal Brazoria Counties.

NHC predicts the storm will weaken into a tropical depression within 36 hours after coming ashore.

Expected Rainfall

The eastern part of Houston could see anywhere between one and four inches of rain, with the higher totals farther east. Louisiana will likely see 6-10 inches.

Still, there is only a marginal (<5%) to slight (<10%) risk of flash flooding.

Storm Surge Warnings

One of the most serious threats: storm surge. NHC predicts water up to 11 feet above ground in the area around Vermillion Bay.

Posted By Bob Rehak on 10/8/2020 at 5:15 PM based on data from NHC and HCFCD

1136 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 385 Days after Imelda

Hurricane Delta Watch from High Island to Grand Isle; Tropical Storm Watch for Galveston Bay

1 P.M. Wednesday, October 7, 2020 – As of 1 P.M. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center issued three watches affecting the Houston region in conjunction with Hurricane Delta:

Hurricane watch from High Island TX to Grand Isle, LA
Tropical Storm watch from San Luis Pass to High Island including all of Galveston Bay
Storm surge watch from High Island, TX to the Alabama/Florida Border

Watches mean conditions could develop in the area, most often within the next 48 hours.

Swells will build into the 15-20ft range offshore on Thursday into Friday and 7-12 feet near the coast. This will result in wave run-up on the Gulf facing beaches and likely some degree of coastal flooding at the typical vulnerable locations.

Cone Still Includes Parts of East Texas

The National Hurricane Center indicates Hurricane Delta has now passed over the Yucatan. It weakened over land, but should strengthen again into a major Hurricane over warm waters in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Delta will move northwest today and then shift north on Thursday, according to NHC. By Friday morning, most of the central Gulf Coast will feel Delta in the form of higher winds, tides and storm surge.

While the cone of uncertainty associated with Hurricane Delta has consistently focused east of the Houston Area, it’s important to understand that ANYWHERE in the cone has an equal chance of being directly hit. And Houston is still near the western side of the cone.

Houston Most Likely Will Be on Dry Side

Luckily, Houston should be on the dry side of this storm. So we will likely not receive flooding rains, as least as far inland as the Lake Houston Area. The graphic below from the National Weather Service shows most of the predicted rainfall will happen east of us.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorology, says, “Rainfall will generally average less than 2 inches east of I-45 in some outer squalls on the west side of Delta.”

Wind is Primary Threat in Lake Houston Area

The NHC has adjusted its intensity forecast downward for Delta. However, it should still regain major hurricane status. The wind field will likely grow in size as the storm approaches the northern Gulf coast. That will increase the storm surge and wind threats. At this time, the NHC forecasts that the Lake Houston Area has a 40-50% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.

The most likely arrival time of those winds is Friday morning.

Don’t plan a picnic under the old oak tree for Friday.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Squalls on the western side of the circulation of Delta will begin to move onshore and into the area on Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday along with gusty winds. Tropical storm force winds may be possible over the SE and E parts of the area, especially Chambers, Galveston, Liberty, and southeast Harris Counties. But this will depend on the overall expansion of the wind field of Delta on Thursday and Friday.”

For More Information

For the most up-to-date forecasts on Hurricane Delta, check the National Hurricane Center.

For detailed local weather forecasts, check the National Weather Service.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 2 PM on Wednesday 10/7/2020 based on information from HCFCD, NWS and NHC

1135 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 384 since Imelda

Delta Will Reach 155 MPH By Tonight; Cone Now Includes Galveston Bay

5PM CDT, Tuesday, October 6, 2020 – Hurricane Delta, now a Cat 4, continues to strengthen and the track continues to shift slightly west. In this afternoon’s update, the NHC predicts the storm could reach 155 MPH by tonight and the cone of uncertainty now bisects Galveston Bay. Just this morning, the western edge was at High Island.

Delta intensified impressively over the last 24 hours with winds increasing more than 100 mph. Delta continues to move toward the WNW at 15mph and this motion is expected to continue until landfall on the NE Yucatan tonight near Cancun.

Track

Delta will quickly move across the NE Yucatan tonight and into the southern Gulf on Wednesday. By Thursday, Delta should begin a turn toward the NW and N over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. It remains unclear when and how fast this turn transpires. This will have impacts on where and when Delta will make landfall on the US Gulf coast. Most models show landfall over the central Louisiana coast around Vermillion Bay, but the European model continues to take the storm farther west.

The official NHC forecast shows the western edge of the forecast error cone through Galveston Bay and the eastern edge near the central MS coast.
National Hurricane Center

Intensity

Delta continues to be in a favorable environment for intensification. NHC brings the hurricane to 155mph tonight. After landfall on the Yucatan, Delta will continue to find near ideal conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico and will likely reach a secondary peak intensity around 130-140mph on Thursday.

By Thursday evening as Delta begins to turn northward and accelerate toward the US Gulf coast, increasing shear is likely, but increasing forward speed could negate this shear.

Delta will then move over cooler shelf waters in the northern Gulf, but the fast forward speed of Delta could result in a slower rate of weakening.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

It is uncertain how strong Delta will be at landfall along the US Gulf coast, but the general consensus is somewhere between 105-125 mph.

Delta’s wind field will expand over the central Gulf on Thursday. NHC forecasts Delta will approach the northern Gulf as a large hurricane and this will support impacts well away from the center – both to the west and east.

Impacts

Given the changes today, expect increasing swells and tides along the upper TX coast as early as late Wednesday, but more likely on Thursday and Friday. Given the expanding wind field, tropical storm force winds (40mph) may get close to portions of eastern SE TX on Friday – mainly along and east of a line from San Luis Pass to Liberty.

Additionally, some squalls may move into the region on Thursday night and Friday with gusty winds. As noted on the graphic below there is between a 30-50% chance of sustained 40mph winds over the southeastern portions of the area. The most likely arrival time for tropical storm force winds would be around midday on Friday.

Any deviation in the forecast track to the west will increase the impacts along the upper TX coast and persons should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020

1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Delta Blows Up into Cat 4 Sooner than Expected; High Island Now in Forecast Cone

11 AM CDT 10/6/2020 – In the last hour, Delta’s winds have increased from 115 to 130 MPH, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. “Delta is now an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with the central pressure down to 954mb. It is likely that Delta will continue to intensify and could reach 145-155mph late today before landfalling near Cancun tonight,” says Lindner.

Forecasts Continue Shifting West

Forecasters predict that Delta will cross over the tip of the Yucatan and head north toward the central Gulf Coast. The NHC has shifted the forecast track slightly to the west at their 10:00 AM advisory. “The western edge of the forecast cone is now near High Island,” explained Lindner.

Forecast track for Hurricane Delta as of 11 AM EDT Tuesday October 6. Source: National Hurricane Center

Landfall Still Most Likely in Louisiana

“Forecast models, with the exception of the ECMWF, continue to indicate that Delta will turn toward the north of the NW Gulf of Mexico and likely landfall along the central or SE LA coast late Friday. Given the potential for a stronger hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico, it is possible that Delta could approach the US coast as a major hurricane.”

*Various model forecasts as of 11 am CDT.*

Increasing shear and cooler waters near the northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed. But Delta should still be a dangerous hurricane when it nears the northern Gulf coast.

Storm 90 Miles Wide

According to the National Hurricane Center, “Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).”

Delta continues to exceed expectations. Just last night, forecasters predicted Delta would become a major hurricane by Wednesday, not Tuesday.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/2020 based on information from the NHC and HCFCD

1134 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Delta Explodes into Hurricane; Should Become Major Hurricane by Wednesday; Track Shifts Slightly West

Twenty-four hours ago, Hurricane Delta was simply potential tropical cyclone #26. As of 8 P.M. EDT today, the National Hurricane Center indicated #26 had progressed from tropical depression to tropical storm to hurricane in 24 hours. By tomorrow night, Delta should become a major hurricane as it crosses the resort areas on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. However, the NHC also predicts that the storm will de-intensify before it makes landfall somewhere between East Texas and the Florida Panhandle on Friday.

Winds Could Increase from 75 to 120 mph

Low wind sheer and warm waters in the northwest Caribbean will allow rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The storm already has sustained winds of 75 mph. NHC gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. That’s roughly another 40 to 45 mph.

Track Shifts Slightly West

The NHC has shifted the track envelope westward over today, bringing the storm closer to Houston, though we are still slightly outside the cone.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Currently Extend 70 miles From Center

NHC expects additional rapid strengthening during the next day or so. Delta, they say, should become a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

*At this point, the Houston area has a 10-30% probability of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds from Delta.*

Louisiana to Western Florida Faces Largest Danger

NHC advises, “Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta.”

Impact to Texas Coast?

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, says, “Swells will be increasing over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by mid week with heights increasing into the 5-10 foot range by Wednesday. This will result in increasing tides along the upper TX coast. Current projections indicate 1.0-1.5 feet above normal levels at times of high tides Thursday and Friday. This is subject to change based on the intensity and wind field of Delta over the central and NW Gulf late this week.”

While SE TX is currently outside the “error cone” and direct impacts appear unlikely, Lindner says that its important to closely monitor forecasts for any changes in the track.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 9PM on Monday, 10/5/2020 based on data from the NHC and HCFCD

1133 Days since Hurricane Harvey

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