According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, we can expect more heavy rainfall today. Showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning with a line of thunderstorms extending from near Columbus to near Bay City. Showers and thunderstorms are also developing ahead of this line.
Lindner also adds that the storms’ forward motion is fast enough to help limit any one area from experiencing an excessive amount of rainfall.
More concentrated showers and thunderstorms will likely move into Houston metro area between 6 and 8 a.m. This may result in some street flooding under the heaviest storms. Activity will linger into the midday hours.
Primary Heavy Rainfall Threat During Morning Hours
As the low pressure system over central Texas begins to lift northward today, drier air will move in from the west and rainfall will become increasingly isolated during the afternoon hours.
Main threat remains street flooding through the morning hours. While rises on area creeks and bayous will be likely with heavy rainfall this morning, the chances for significant and widespread flooding are low.
The unsettled weather pattern will continue into late week. This weekend and early next week, another slow moving upper level system over northern Mexico will slowly progress into Texas.
Those storms will probably drop more rain on central and southwest Texas than southeast Texas. But how and whether they advance eastward is still in question.
The more significant flood threat this weekend will focus west of Houston. However, showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Houston area through the weekend and into next week.
Forecasted Rainfall Today
Forecasted Rainfall Next 7 Days
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/10/2023 based on info from Harris County
2080 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image001-2.png?fit=800%2C563&ssl=1563800adminadmin2023-05-10 06:35:182023-05-10 06:37:49Potential For More Heavy Rainfall Continues into Midday
Last week, I posted about the possibility of heavy rain early this week. Last night, Dallas experienced torrential rains and they’re headed this way. One amateur weather gage on Londonderry Lane reported more than 14″ of rain! Dallas/Fort Worth officially received 9.46 inches of rainfall in 6 hours and 7.8 inches in 3-hours. Significant flash flooding has resulted. A 1-hour storm total of 3.01 inches was recorded at DFW with a storm total of 6.54 inches. That wiped out 67% of the area’s 2022 rainfall deficit in a few hours.
Threat Will Increase From North to South During Next 24 Hours
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the frontal boundary over north Texas will slowly move southward today and approach the northern portions of southeast Texas by mid- to late afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary along with scattered showers developing northward along the seabreeze and Gulf inflow.
The air mass will become extremely moist and unstable. When combined with slow moving/stalled boundaries, excessive rainfall can result. Lindner says areas north of HWY 105 have the first potential for heavy rainfall in early afternoon. Then the front will slowly sink southward toward I-10 tonight into early Tuesday. Expect slow storm motions, cell training, and back-building of cells to the west and northwest. Everything points to heavy rainfall.
This was clearly seen overnight in north Texas. The local air mass will not be much different over southeast Texas. Especially N of I-10. These rainfall rates can lead to rapid flash flooding especially in urban areas.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected over much of southeast Texas through mid week. But Lindner also expects isolated higher totals of 6+ inches. And where these higher totals occur, flash flooding will be possible, he says.
Confidence in rainfall is high. But confidence in rainfall amounts and location of the heaviest rainfall is low.
Street flooding will be the primary threat with the heavy rainfall rates. Rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible if some of the heavier storms train or move slowly over any watershed.
Overall, this wet pattern will linger into late week. But a slightly drier air mass will eventually push through and we should transition back toward a more “normal” cycle of showers and thunderstorms driven mostly by the seabreeze front.
See the National Weather Services predictions below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/22 based on information from HCFCD and NWS
Widespread heavy rainfall along and north of I-10 over the last 24 hours has resulted in rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches over much of that area. Pockets have received 4-5 inches. Those include northern Waller and western Montgomery Counties. Portions of Walker County received 4-6 inches.
Ongoing flooding through much of today closed several roads in low lying areas of northern Waller and Walker Counties. Run-off continues to progress down creeks and into mainstem rivers. Rises will continue along upper Spring Creek into tonight and Saturday. However, at the moment forecasters expect no significant flooding. See attached graphics for 24-hr rainfall totals and current channel status.
First Round Kicks Off Overnight
NWS satellite imagery shows moisture streaming up out of Mexico as of 7PM Friday. The area along the middle Texas coast from the coastal bend up to to about Wharton looks favorable for the formation of another round of heavy to excessive rainfall late tonight and early tomorrow. Models indicate this activity will occur mostly west of I-45 and south of I-10 into Saturday morning before it begins to weaken. Exactly how far northeast rain and heavy rain may spread is still in question. But according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “The latest thinking indicates it will remain southwest of the areas hard hit today.”
Second Round of Storms Saturday Night into Sunday
Lindner predicts a weakening of the storm Saturday afternoon. But he warns to expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. He says they will invade the region from the southwest to northeast. Moisture levels will support heavy to excessive rainfall rates within any organized thunderstorms.
Expect additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches over the weekend with isolated totals reaching 4-6 inches…especially around the coastal bend and Matagorda Bay tonight into early Saturday.
Area Soils Now Saturated
I received 3.07 inches in my rain gage today and have standing water in my yard. Soils have become nearly saturated in areas that saw the greatest rainfall today, while areas around Galveston Bay have experienced little rainfall thus far. Heavy run-off in many areas north of I-10 will cause rises in several channels. Keep an eye on the East Fork of the San Jacinto River at FM 1485 into the weekend. The forecast there currently exceeds flood stage.
A good amount of water is routing into the West Fork of the San Jacinto also. But current forecasts keep the river from Conroe to Humble below flood stage. The SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe at almost 6000 cubic feet per second. Despite that, the lake level has risen almost a foot and a half today above its normal pool level.
The areas north of the lake received some of the highest rainfall totals this morning. This lake is now 3.5 feet above where it was when the SJRA stopped the seasonal lowering last week. Had they now lowered the lake a foot, it would be even higher now. We can all learn from this experience.
Minor flooding will also be possible this evening along upper Spring Creek west of Hegar Rd with rural low lands near the creek inundated.
Additional rainfall over the weekend may change some of the current forecasts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/21 at 8PM based on info from the NWS and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
1340 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Rainfall-4.30.21.jpg?fit=1200%2C669&ssl=16691200adminadmin2021-04-30 19:45:422021-04-30 19:50:27Two More Rounds of Heavy Rain Yet to Come; Flash Flood Watch Extended Through Sunday
UPDATED AS OF 10PM THURSDAY – Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, warns that heavy rainfall potential will spread across the region tonight through the weekend.
National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Southeast Texas tonight through Sunday morning. However, the risk is slight.
Lakes Houston, Conroe Being Lowered
Houston Public Works is currently lowering Lake Houston by 12 inches, from 42.5 feet to 41.5 feet in response to the newly updated forecast – 3 inches of rain in our watershed within 24 hours. Property owners along the lake should secure property along the shoreline. To monitor current water levels at Lake Houston, visit www.coastalwaterauthority.org.
The SJRA had stopped its seasonal release from Lake Conroe. Rains from last weekend pushed the lake back up past its normal full pool level of 201 feet. As of 7pm Thursday, the SJRA had not resumed releasing any water, but by 10pm it had.
Inflow from Gulf Will Collide With Stalled Front over SE TX
“A slow-moving, upper-level, low-pressure system over the southwest will combine with a surface front that will move into southeast Texas later today,” says Lindner. He expects the fronts to stall over our area. He says they will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon into Sunday.
Onshore flow has increased moisture over the region with dewpoints running in the low to mid 70’s. The surface front extends from northeast Texas to near Laredo. It will move slowly into southeast Texas late this afternoon and then likely stall between downtown and the coast by Friday morning. Other disturbances, says Lindner, will ride along this frontal boundary toward the northeast helping to produce several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
With the upper level winds becoming increasing parallel to the stalling surface front and moisture levels remaining high into the weekend, the threat for heavy rainfall will be increasing. Storm motions are expected to slow on Friday, but coverage remains scattered, so some areas could see some decent rainfall while other get little.
Threat Remains Through Sunday
Expect widespread storms to develop on Saturday morning as the threat for cell training increases.
The slow moving upper level low will then move directly across the area on Saturday night into Sunday with additional rounds of thunderstorms…some of these storms could be severe along with more heavy rainfall.
Lindner warns potentially higher totals are possible given the overall slow moving nature of the weather pattern.
Increasing Runoff as Grounds Saturate, Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
The dry ground conditions now in place means soil will absorb much of this rainfall. Regardless, Lindner predicts rises on area creeks and bayous. He says that grounds will begin to saturate over the weekend yielding greater run-off as the storm wears on.
The National Weather Service has all of southeast Texas in a marginal risk for flash flooding starting Friday and into Saturday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/2021 based on information by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Weather Service
1339 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/image001.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2021-04-29 16:04:172021-04-29 22:20:56Heavy Rainfall Potential Tonight, Through Weekend
A series of strong storm systems will converge over south Texas late this week bringing heavy rainfall. Moisture will rapidly increase Thursday afternoon and evening.
Black Friday Looking Like Bleak Friday
“We may even see development of showers over the coastal waters Thursday afternoon that begins to spread inland Thursday evening,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist. “Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase and expand in coverage and intensity early Friday. A warm front may begin to slow or even stall over southeast Texas from Friday afternoon into early Saturday. That will allow prolonged heavy rainfall due to cell training.”
Moisture profiles for the Friday afternoon into Saturday point toward heavy rainfall.
“Ingredients are in play for prolonged heavy rainfall, cell training, and possible flash flooding.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Then a cold front will approach the region at some point Saturday into early Sunday helping to focus additional rainfall. The upper level trough will slowly move eastward late Saturday into Sunday leading to decreasing rain chances and cold conditions.
Up to 5-6 inches Rainfall Possible with Hail Threat
A few of the storms on Friday and Saturday could be strong with the main threat being small hail.
Rainfall amounts over the next 5 days (mainly Friday and Saturday) will likely average 1-3 inches over the region with isolated totals of 5-6 inches possible.
Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
“However,” says Lindner, “should any sort of heavy rainfall axis develop and anchor over any specific location for a period of time…flash flooding could develop. The main concern would be street flooding with the heavier rainfall rates, but rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible in heavy rainfall materializes in the more urban areas.”
Lake Charles and Houston radars show numerous clusters and bands of heavy rainfall across Gulf waters associated with deep tropical moisture. These bands will soon begin to move onshore.
Cumulative Rainfall Potential Through Friday
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, models have come into agreement. They predict a surface-low pressure system may form just offshore on Tuesday and drift inland over southeast Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system only a 10% chance of tropical formation…
…BUT regardless heavy rainfall should result.
Ingredients appear to be coming together late Tuesday through Thursday for a heavy rainfall event over the region.
Endless Supply of Tropical Moisture
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, “An endless supply of moisture will pump into the region. Formation of slow-moving, training rain bands appears likely over portions of the area.”
This weather system could produce excessive rainfall, enough to saturate dry ground in a short period of time. Rains today and Tuesday especially south of I-10 will saturate dry ground. Conditions by Wednesday should support much more run-off, over a wider area.
10-15 Inches Possible
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches will be likely over much of the area with isolated totals of 10-15 inches possible.
Hourly rainfall rates of 3-4 inches will be possible under any training bands and any slow-moving clusters resulting in rapid-onset urban flash flooding. The threat for creek, bayou, and river flooding will increase by mid-week as grounds become increasingly saturated and run-off increases.
Flash flooding will be possible.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2019as of 9 a.m.
748 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/image001.gif?fit=748%2C562&ssl=1562748adminadmin2019-09-16 12:03:152019-09-16 12:03:26Potential for Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding Increasing This Week