5/1/2026 – According to FEMA, its BRIC program has been infused with $1 billion to help mitigate the impact of future disasters. The agency also immediately provided previously cancelled funds to states.
BRIC stands for Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities. The program aims to reduce the cost of future disasters by awarding grants that help prevent damage.
According to the American Flood Coalition (AFC), “The BRIC announcement came one day after former Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin was sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Since assuming this role, Secretary Mullin has eliminated a DHS policy requiring secretarial approval for payments over $100,000.”
BRIC is BACK
After the year-long pause, FEMA has introduced several programmatic changes, including a heightened focus on infrastructure, construction-ready projects, the adoption of up-to-date building codes, and a new scoring rubric.
Key changes include:
Smaller awards. While total funding has increased by $250 million to $1 billion, individual projects are capped at $20 million, allowing funding to reach more communities. No single applicant (e.g., state) may receive more than 15% of total available funding.
Construction-ready infrastructure is the priority. This cycle favors projects ready to break ground, especially traditional infrastructure projects protecting transportation, utilities, water systems, communications, and public buildings, with clear design progress and risk reduction benefits. Phased projects are not permitted in this funding cycle.
Streamlined scoring rubric. Applications are scored across six criteria (100 points total), with construction readiness (30 points), building codes (20), and risk reduction (20) weighted most heavily. New applicants receive a 15-point bonus; small, impoverished communities receive 5 points.
Applications
The application period opened on March 25, 2026. The deadline to submit applications is July 23, 2026.
Eligible applicants include states, the District of Columbia, U.S. territories and federally recognized Tribal Nations. Eligible subapplicants include local governments, communities, special districts and Tribal Nations applying through a state or territory.
Reportedly, one of the key objectives is to move money faster. FEMA intends to do this by eliminating phased projects, simplifying the National Competition scoring system and removing sub-application scoring by the National Review Panel.
However, the government shutdown affected all but essential workers at FEMA for months. At this hour, it’s not clear how the shutdown will affect the applications and deadlines. Just yesterday, Congress passed a bill that would restore FEMA funding through September.
According to a spokesperson for Representative Dan Crenshaw, the BRIC deadline would likely be extended if necessary because of staffing issues during the shutdown.
4/4/26 – States, counties and communities across the U.S. prioritize flood mitigation over flood prevention, despite FEMA studies that have found prevention costs up to 5-6X less than correction. What types of costs?
Examples of Mitigation Costs
Examples of mitigation costs include:
Post-flood buyouts: Government often buys and demolishes homes after repeated flooding.
Levees/dams/detention basins/channel improvements: Expensive to build and maintain — and they can fail.
Flood insurance subsidies: Taxpayers often foot the bill via programs like the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which is deeply in debt.
Examples of Prevention Costs/Strategies
Examples of much more cost-effective Prevention Strategies include:
Zoning restrictions to keep development out of high-risk zones.
Green infrastructure like wetlands that absorb floodwaters.
Elevated buildings or flood-resistant designs where development is unavoidable.
Parks,buying out land, and conservation easements before development occurs.
Kingwood’s East End Park provides habitat and recreation while improving the value of neighboring homes and distancing them from flooding.
While development in floodplains may seem cheaper at first, the long-term economic, environmental, and social costs almost always outweigh the initial savings.
National Subsidies Distort Local Priorities
So, why do the inverted priorities persist? The developer reaps the profit, but taxpayers bear the costs. Economists call it an “externality problem” when the production or consumption of a good, such as housing, imposes unintended costs or benefits on third parties not involved in the transaction.
In this case, the availability of cheap, nationally subsidized flood insurance distorted the market for floodplain properties by insulating buyers and lenders from the true costs of flooding.
And when flooding did happen, FEMA and HUD were there to help bail out local communities with hundreds of billions of dollars of flood mitigation grants.
As a result…
The U.S. chronically underinvests in mitigation and over-relies on post-disaster funding.
We see this economic and policy pattern across the U.S. and locally.
Scarborough Example
For instance, in the Lake Houston Area, residents are fighting a 5,300+ acre development upstream from the I-69 bridge where the San Jacinto West Fork, Spring Creek, Cypress Creek and Turkey Creek all converge. It is one of the most flood-prone parcels in south Texas and large parts of it have just been reclassified as “floodway.”
Unbelievably, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) is helping bankroll the development. The GLO is also responsible for distributing billions of dollars of federal flood-mitigation aid in Texas. (Somebody needs to write President Trump!)
For More Information
To learn more about the cost of prevention versus correction, see:
For more on other causes of flooding, see the Lessons page of ReduceFlooding.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/26
3140 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SJR_704_048-e1612057029212.jpg?fit=1200%2C811&ssl=18111200adminadmin2026-04-04 17:34:192026-04-04 17:41:52How U.S. Prioritizes Flood Mitigation Over Flood Prevention
4/1/26 – In my quest to summarize the most important “lessons learned” since Hurricane Harvey, here’s Lesson #3: Floodplain Encroachment. Floodplain encroachment is consistently rated one of the most important drivers of flooding worldwide. Think about it. If people didn’t build in floodplains, no one would flood. But that’s only part of the story. Floodplain development also changes flood assumptions for communities downstream.
Why People Build in Floodplains
Despite the risks, people worldwide build in floodplains. The land usually costs less. And it can yield extraordinary profits to developers lucky or persistent enough to obtain building permits.
After all, people pay premiums to live near water. Water views are prestigious, beautiful and soothing. Plus, historically, living near water translated to “security.” Water sustains life. The need for water is hard-wired into our DNA, our culture, and even our economy.
Once a thriving community. Destruction on Bolivar Peninsula in 2008. Storm surge 15 feet high during Hurricane Ike washed away homes and ripped storm sewers right out of the ground.
Yet during Hurricane Ike in 2008, storm surge reached 30 miles inland in places. And despite being leveled, within 10 years, homes on the vulnerable Bolivar Peninsula had built back.
While I have focused primarily on the Houston Area, floodplain encroachment is a global problem. Nearly all growing metro areas encroach on floodplains – coastal or riverine.
Loss of Natural Storage Can Increase Downstream Flood Elevations
The problem isn’t just “putting people in harm’s way.” It’s also about the loss of natural floodplain storage. In riverine systems, floodplains function as temporary storage reservoirs during overbank flows.
Insufficiently mitigated development can remove that storage volume or prevent it from being accessed.
Apartments and commercial development along Houston’s Brays Bayou
That’s why after Harvey, Houston and Harris County changed floodplain regulations so developers couldn’t bring fill into floodplains. Fill displaces water. Nature compensates for the fill by increasing water surface elevations elsewhere.
Floodplain development can also reduce the duration of floodplain storage, resulting in faster, higher peaks downstream.
See examples below.
Mississippi Floodplain Development
Historically, the Mississippi River occupied a broad alluvial valley tens of miles across in places. It inundated seasonally . Floodplains functioned as massive, temporary storage reservoirs.
Encroachment occurred primarily through federal levee construction under the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and urban/industrial development that occurred later behind the levees.
As a result, floodplain width narrowed dramatically. The levees confined the river’s flow into a narrower channel where floods moved higher and faster, often breaking through levees with devastating consequences.
Levee failure also played a major role in the inundation of New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Floodplain encroachment can turn into a vicious feedback loop. Levees reduce frequent flooding. That attracts more investment and development behind the levees. But as the consequences of levee failure increase, there’s more pressure to build higher, stronger levees.
West Fork San Jacinto/Spring Creek Confluence
Closer to home for most of my readers, developers have recently been trying to figure out ways to develop 5,300 acres between the West Fork San Jacinto River and Spring Creek. Virtually the entire area is in floodplain or floodway. Though current flood maps don’t fully reflect the danger, FEMA’s new draft flood maps for the area show part of the property. See below.
Dark blue/gray = floodway. Dark green = 100-year floodplain. Light green = 500-year floodplain.From HCFCD MAAPnext.
A leading hydrologist in the area told me that developing this area would be like “aiming a fire hose at the Humble/Kingwood Area.”
It’s not clear yet what the developer has planned for the site. Both the Texas General Land Office (GLO) and the Texas Attorney General have denied FOIA requests for the plans.
An “externality problem” occurs when the production or consumption of a good, such as housing, imposes unintended costs or benefits on third parties not involved in the transaction. In economic terms, this leads to market inefficiencies. It is a form of market failure. Private costs/benefits differ from social costs/benefits.
For instance, sand mines help produce a raw material needed for concrete. It generates profit for producers. But in their zeal to maximize their profit, they mine too close to rivers and in a manner that exacerbates erosion and sedimentation.
It’s the same way with flooding. Developers profit from building in floodplains. And the vast majority try to do it safely.
Regardless, in 2023, the Joint Economic Committee of Congress estimates that each year flooding costs Americans between $179.8 and $496.0 billion. The total depends on the types of damage included, i.e., structural, lost economic output, infrastructure repairs, insurance losses, decreased tax revenues, transit, deaths, etc.
Assuming the higher flood-damage estimate of nearly half of a trillion dollars, that represents 7% of last year’s entire federal budget. I’d sure like a 7% tax cut. April 15th is two weeks away!
For More Information
For more “lessons learned” about flooding since Harvey, see this website’s Lessons Page.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/1/2026
3137 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Hurricane-Ike-363.jpg?fit=1500%2C993&ssl=19931500adminadmin2026-04-01 19:10:362026-04-02 08:47:26Floodplain Encroachment: Another Consistent Driver of Flooding Worldwide
1/27/26 – Are you having trouble researching the flood risk of a home? Yours or perhaps one you are considering buying? Worried that your flood risk may have increased over time? If so, the Houston Chronicle wants to hear from you.
During Harvey, 154,170 homes in Harris County alone flooded. That was an estimated 9- to 12-percent of all the structures in the county. See page 13 of HCFCD’s final Harvey Report.
Of the 154,170 homes that flooded, 48,850 were within the 1% (100-yr) floodplain, 34,970 within the .2% (500-yr) floodplain, and 70,370 were outside of any floodplain – almost halfthe total of those within floodplains.
That troubling percentage prompted a re-examination of floodplain assumptions and flood risk after Harvey. The result was a massive effort by Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) to update flood maps. But 8.5 years later, after repeated delays, new maps still haven’t been released. Compare the two timelines below.
2020 screen capture from MAAPnext.org showing release of preliminary maps in early 2022.Screen captured on 1/27/26.Note also the new narrative about “FEMA is leading the process” in lower right.
And that’s one way you get 65,000 homes sold in floodplains since Harvey. But those are only the floodplains that we know about. That number could easily increase when new maps showing the expanded floodplains are released.
Has Uncertainty Affected Your Flood Risk?
That uncertainty, coupled with the constant need to build, buy or sell homes, could be laying the groundwork for the next natural disaster. The uncertainty makes it difficult to assess a home’s true flood risk and determine whether that’s a risk you’re willing to take.
Are you uninsured? Underinsured? Could you afford flood insurance on top of a mortgage if you suddenly found yourself in a floodplain? Could you afford a total loss if you flooded without insurance?
“Many homeowners don’t learn their property is in a high-risk area until after they purchase it,” said Cheng. “Repeated delays in the release of new flood maps have exacerbated that problem.”
“We’re looking to speak with residents across the Houston metro area, including Harris, Montgomery, Fort Bend, Galveston and other nearby counties. Your story could help others understand the risks and may be featured in our reporting,” says Cheng.
The Chronicle questionnaire has about a half dozen short, factual questions that should take no more than five minutes to answer. Please help. You do not need to subscribe to the Chronicle to participate in the survey.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/27/26
3073 Days since Hurricane Harvey
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1/13/25 – The City of Houston is fining a property owner caught bringing massive amounts of fill into the floodway and floodplain of the San Jacinto West Fork. The fines will signal others that the City is serious about enforcing its floodplain regulations.
Raid in Response to Dumping Caught on Camera
On 12/11/25, Houston Public Works raided a property at 21915 Savell Road, Kingwood, Texas 77339. The main entrance to the property lies at the corner of Savelle and Sorters-McClellan Roads.
The owner of the largely vacant property was bringing in dozens of giant dump trucks filled with dirt. The trucks dumped the dirt in the floodplain and floodway of the San Jacinto West Fork.
City inspectors, District E City Councilman Fred Flickinger’s Chief of Staff Dustin Hodges and HPD caught a dump truck pulling away with its bed still up as they entered the site. The raid was caught on camera.
Photo captured minutes before raid.
City ordinances adopted after Harvey prohibit bringing fill into the floodways or 100-year floodplains. Property owners can move dirt within them. For instance, they can excavate detention basins and use the dirt to elevate homes elsewhere on the site above the floodplain. But they cannot add fill and constrict the conveyance of streams, rivers, or bayous. That pushes water onto adjoining property owners and increases their flood risk.
Multiple Violations Found
According to the City, inspectors found multiple egregious violations at the site. Despite that, the property owner appeared defiant rather than contrite in a followup meeting.
On December 19, the inspector met with the property owner. The meeting reportedly began innocently enough. The owner identified himself and the inspector confirmed his ownership of the property through Harris County Appraisal District records.
They then discussed multiple violations observed on the property within the Special Hazard Flood Area (SHFA) and the Floodway. The violations included:
CC460 – No Development Permit: Two un-permitted structures were observed within the SHFA.
BD44 – Performing Grading Without First Obtaining a Permit: Inspectors observed introduction of excessive fill material (dirt) within the SHFA and the Floodway without an approved permit.
BD55 – Failure to Employ Silt Fencing: They also found no erosion-control measures in place. Worse, they observed fill material runoff entering the West Fork of the San Jacinto River and a nearby tributary.
The inspector next explained the applicable Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)/Chapter 19 Floodplain Ordinance, including City of Houston amendments.
Then, he reportedly told the property owner that an “as-is topographic survey” would be required to proceed. The survey would need to include spot elevations of current site conditions, delineation of the SHFA and Floodway, and the legal property boundaries.
He said this information was necessary because a neighboring property is also believed to be in violation.
Owner Pushes Back
According to the inspector, the owner then asked who would be responsible for paying for the survey. The inspector advised him that the cost would be the responsibility of the property owner in violation.
The owner then responded that he was not in violation and that if a survey were needed, the City of Houston would have to pay for it.
City Inspector
The inspector then explained that “Without the required survey information, I could not assist him in bringing the property into compliance.” Further, the inspector advised the owner that, based on his position, there was nothing further to discuss and that citations would be issued that day and weekly thereafter until compliance was achieved.
Owner Refuses to Sign Citation
Next, the inspector asked the owner if he would sign the citation, but the owner declined. The inspector then informed him of the violations being cited and his arraignment date, time, and location. Finally, the inspector advised him that the citation—and any subsequent citations—would be mailed to the address listed on his state-issued identification.
Since that meeting, the inspector has issued citations on a weekly basis. Arraignment dates for these citations are scheduled as follows: January 27, 2026; February 3, 2026; and February 10, 2026.
“Beginning January 27, 2026,” said the inspector, “the owner’s required appearance for arraignments will be scheduled every Tuesday thereafter until compliance is achieved or until otherwise directed by leadership.”
What City Regulations Say
City of Houston regulations prohibit bringing fill dirt into floodways and floodplains. Chapter 19 Div. 2 Sec. 19.34 states:
No fill may be added to a 100-year floodplain.
Any loss of floodplain-storage volume must be mitigated onsite.
“No floodplain development permit shall be issued for a development to be located in any floodway…”
“The development will not impede the flow of floodwaters.”
“The development will not result in an adverse effect on the conveyance capacity during the occurrence of the base flood.”
Removal of Fill Demanded
According to City Council Member Flickinger’s Chief of Staff Dustin Hodges, nothing new has happened on the case since the 12/19/26 meeting.
“The City is still pushing for removal of all the fill brought into the floodplain and floodway.”
Dusin Hodges, District E Chief of Staff
Hodges also says the fine for non-compliance ranges from a minimum $250 per day up to $2,000 per day.
This may make the perfect test case. The fill, in my opinion, is egregious; this is no small amount. The area where the fill was dumped had the highest flooding in Harris County during Harvey – 27 feet above normal, which caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and more than a dozen deaths.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/12/26
3059 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/20251209-DJI_20251209104552_0637_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2026-01-13 16:13:262026-01-14 08:49:47City Fines Property Owner Filling West Fork Floodplain, Floodway
12/28/2025 – This is the second part of a three part series on the top flood-related stories of 2025. Part I covered the major disasters of the year. Part II will cover the government response in terms of regulations and funding for flood mitigation efforts. And Part III will cover the progress of mitigation.
Government Response to Camp Mystic/Guadalupe Tragedy
Hearings on the Camp Mystic disaster last July identified a failure of warning signs (weather reports, alarm systems, etc.) as one of the primary causes. Investigations also discovered that the camp’s operators lobbied for changes to flood maps so that they could build in floodplains. And then they evidently expanded the camp before regulators became aware. Finally, evacuation plans were evidently not well communicated or understood.
In response, the Texas Legislature passed the Heaven’s 27 Camp Safety Act (a reference to the number of young girls who died at Camp Mystic). The act bars camp cabins in high risk areas. It also requires camps to have state-approved emergency plans, regular evacuation drills and disaster alert systems.
Lawmakers approved nearly $300 million “to boost flood preparedness, including $200 million to match federal disaster aid, $50 million for local grants to purchase flood warning equipment and $28 million to improve weather forecasting.” A companion bill also expanded government oversight of youth camps.
It also canceled the fiscal year 2024 notice of funding opportunity (NOFO), involving $750 million for grants.
BRIC was FEMA’s largest pre-disaster mitigation program. Congress established it through the Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018. Its purpose: to fundamentally shift federal-disaster spending from post-disaster recovery to pre-disaster risk reduction. In other words, to encourage a shift from “Repair” to “Resilience.”
BRIC aimed to prevent disasters by helping communities build to higher standards. Flood-risk reduction grants typically helped finance projects such as:
Elevation or floodproofing of critical facilities (hospitals, EOCs, fire stations)
A press release that accompanied the cancellation of the BRIC program called it a “wasteful, politicized grant program.” However, investments in hazard mitigation programs are the opposite of “wasteful,” according to the Association of State Flood Plain Managers. They point to studies showing flood-hazard mitigation investments return up to $8 in benefits for every $1 spent.
States sued to prevent the cancellation. The lawsuits are still locked up in courts.
Prevention is always cheaper than correction. After Harvey, a Harris County engineering study found 20 times less damage in subdivisions using newer, more stringent building codes compared to those built under older codes.
FEMA Slowdown
Meanwhile, approvals for other types of FEMA grants have slowed. According to The Hill, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Christy Noem has adopted a policy of personally approving all major expenditures that cost $100,000 or more. The Hill article reported $900 million in grants and loans reportedly awaiting Noem’s review.
Separately, in other FEMA news, according to the Washington Post, hundreds of residents signed up for FEMA buyouts after Cat 4 Hurricane Helene devastated the southeast in 2024. Not one has yet been approved.
HUD/GLO Finish Rebuilding Program
On a more positive note, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) administers U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) flood-mitigation/disaster-relief programs in Texas. The GLO recently announced completion of the rebuilding of more than 9600 homes across the state under its Homeowner Assistance Program (HAP). That total includes mostly homes from its Hurricane Harvey disaster recovery mission. But it also includes homes impacted by Imelda, Laura, and repetitive flooding events in the Rio Grande Valley.
GLO poster celebrating program completion.
Status of Other GLO/HUD Programs
The GLO continued advancing long-term recovery and resilience by administering more than $1 billion in Community Development Block Grant for Disaster Recovery and Mitigation Projects. Additionally, HUD approved the GLO’s plan for $555 million to help communities impacted by 2024 Disasters.
The GLO completed reviews and approvals of all remaining project applications under the Regional Mitigation Program (RMP), providing funding for critical infrastructure improvements including drainage systems and flood-prevention measures. In total, the GLO has approved more than 200 RMP projects for more than $1.1 billion.
The GLO also approved more than $135 million in applications through the Disaster Recovery Reallocation Program (DRRP). It utilizes unspent disaster recovery funds from older disasters to help communities with outstanding unmet needs. These investments will reduce risk related to hurricanes, tropical storms, flooding, and other hazards.
The agency also announced it will be closing applications at the end of the year for both the Local Hazard Mitigation Plans Program (LHMPP) and the Resilient Communities Program (RCP). Both are part of the GLO’s long-term strategy to help communities strengthen local planning efforts, modernize codes, and protect life and property from future disasters.
Montgomery County Updates Flood Regulations
Eight years after Harvey, Montgomery County finally adopted new subdivision, floodplain, and drainage regulations.
The county adopted its new subdivision (development) regulations on March 4, then amended them on May 27 and October 14. MoCo also issued subdivision guidelines and recommendations on November 4.
Commissioners adopted a new Drainage Criteria Manual on August 26. And new Floodplain Management Regulations became effective on October 1, 2025.
While MoCo regs don’t perfectly reflect the Minimum Drainage Standards recommended by Harris County for other counties draining into it, they are a great improvement.
Competing Forces at Work
Flood safety is a constant struggle between competing forces that increase or reduce flood risk. There are so many, the public can hardly know whether it’s winning or losing.
Just because the government appropriates money, doesn’t mean it’s enough or will be spent promptly.
Even if it is, will it actually reduce risk in the face of offsetting factors such as legislative loopholes, grandfather clauses, willful blindness, the profit motive, shifting political winds, and insufficiently mitigated upstream development?
And maybe that’s THE Top Flood-Related Story of 2025. More on that tomorrow.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/28/2025
3043 Days since Hurricane Harvey
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11/8/25 – The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has not just battled nature’s extremes this year. It has also battled political superstorms that have left both employees and citizens exposed and uncertain.
Disasters So Far in 2025
Despite a quieter than normal hurricane season so far this year, the U.S. has suffered:
Wildfires in Southern California that burned 57,529 acres and more than 18,000 structures. They cause 200,000 people to evacuate and killed up to 440 people.
A outbreak of 118 tornados across the Mississippi Valley from Illinois to Louisiana between March 13 and March 16, killing 43 people and causing an estimated $11 billion in damage.
It’s not that FEMA was unresponsive in these events. It’s just that the agency has been hampered by political crosswinds and uncertainty. Early in the year, the Trump administration announced that it wanted to eliminate FEMA. But more recently, as disasters piled up, the administration has said it wants to restructure FEMA.
At the same time, FEMA has eliminated the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) grant program. The exact value of such grants is unknown. However estimates range from almost $900 million to $3.6 billion.
FEMA’s own budget could be cut, too. Though not yet fully enacted, the administration’s FY2026 budget proposal included a cut of about $646 million for FEMA from prior levels.
Why Response at Federal Level Makes More Sense for Rare Disasters
The Administration has said it wants state and local governments to take on the cost for disaster recovery. State and local governments already provide much of the funding for minor disasters. But can they provide the funding needed for the type of major disasters mentioned above?
Shortly before the government shutdown started, the Wall Street Journal ran an illuminating article about the changing focus at FEMA.
“The city [St. Louis] doesn’t have the finances, institutional knowledge or equipment to rapidly respond to catastrophic disasters like the tornado that struck in May, which the city estimates caused $1.6 billion in damage,” it said.
“Any one individual municipality, county or even state can go years to decades without a major disaster that they have to respond to,” continued the article in the Balanced Weather Blog.
“The idea that these levels of government are going to maintain the large, complex infrastructure needed to effectively and adequately respond to rare catastrophic events is not only nonsensical, it would be an incredibly poor use of taxpayer money,” it continued.
“Having a robust FEMA enables the ongoing maintenance of the needed disaster response infrastructure at a federal level which can then be deployed when and where it is needed.”
Economies of Scale
That makes sense to me. Would you ask each state to provide its own Army, Navy and Air Force? Of course not.
Certain tasks require economies of scale to match threats. That’s what FEMA provides. The ability to shift people and resources where they’re needed when they’re needed makes more economic sense than forcing each of 50 states to duplicate those resources for a disaster that may never strike in a lifetime.
That said, I believe it’s also incumbent on cities, counties and states to shoulder as much of the burden as they can.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/8/2025
2993 Days since Hurricane Harvey
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11/4/2025 – FEMA floodplain maps contradict a claim made by Scarborough Development/San Jacinto Preserve in a presentation made to the City of Houston and Harris County officials on 10/29/25.
The developer recently bought 5,316 acres, mostly in the floodplains and floodways of Spring and Cypress Creeks, and the San Jacinto West Fork. The land lies in both Montgomery County and the City of Houston’s extra territorial jurisdiction. The developer also wants to build a bridge into Harris County.
However, superimposing their development plan on FEMA’s current floodplain maps developed before Atlas 14 contradicts that claim. Why?
The extent of proposed development matches the limits of pre-, not post-, Atlas 14 100-year floodplains.
Net: developing in this area is more dangerous than it may look. 500-year floodplains could soon become 100-year floodplains.
For more detail, see the discussion of Atlas-14’s history and the sequence of maps below.
A Brief History of Atlas 14
FEMA’s current floodplain maps for this area date to 2014, four years BEFORE the start of Atlas 14 in Texas. And to my knowledge, FEMA has not yet released new flood maps based on Atlas 14 for this region.
NOAA began updating rainfall precipitation frequency estimates in 2004; they called the effort “Atlas 14.” But NOAA didn’t update Texasstatistics until 2018. Such rainfall estimates form the basis for flood maps.
In Montgomery County (MoCo), pre/post estimates for the standard 100-year/24-hour rainfall varied by more than a third. MoCo adopted Atlas 14 values of ~16.1 inches for the 24-hr, 1% storm (at Conroe), up from the previous standard of ~12 inches. That’s an increase of 4.1 inches or 34%.
Also consider that Montgomery County has been one of the fastest growing counties in the region and in America. Its population has grown by almost a third (31%) since 2018. That population growth comes with a growth of impervious cover (roofs, driveways, streets, parking lots, etc.) that doesn’t soak up rainfall.
I’m not aware of any recent studies that show the cumulative impact of additional rainfall and impervious cover together with a deficit of detention.
Given those issues, common sense says flood elevations would increase. And in fact, preliminary guidance from Harris County indicates that floodplains will expand by 50% to 100% when FEMA releases updated flood maps based on Atlas 14.
New Plans Show Development Extending to Old 100-Year Floodplain
When I first saw the developer’s new plans, the plans didn’t seem to match the claim that they would only develop land “at or above the Atlas 14 100-year floodplain.” That made me suspicious. So, I performed an experiment.
I superimposed the developer’s plans over FEMA’s current (pre-Atlas 14) map dated 2014. I then varied the opacity of the layers in Adobe Photoshop so I could see how the two matched up. Long story short, they matched perfectly. See the sequence of images below.
Layer 1: From FEMA’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Scarborough property is in center between Spring Creek (diagonal) and West Fork (right). Brown areas = 500-year floodplain. Aqua = 100-year. Striped = floodway.
Next, I superimposed the development plan that Scarborough presented to City of Houston and Harris County.
Layer 2: Gray areas with waffle pattern represent claimed “net developable area.”Red = property boundary.
Then, I varied the opacity of the development plan until you could see the floodplains behind it.
Composite with partial transparency of overlay
Enlargement clearly shows thatdevelopment stops at the old, pre-Atlas-14, 100-year floodplain.
White lines from 2014 FEMA map form boundary between 100- and 500-year floodplains. And waffle patterns from developer’s plans stop at white lines.
New maps reflecting higher rainfall rates and more impervious cover will likely show those white lines cutting well into the brown so-called developable areas, if not eliminating some altogether.
Where Did Developer’s Claim Come From?
So, where did the developer’s Atlas 14 claim come from? I have talked to three people who were in the meeting. Not one could tell me with certainty. They all expressed reservations and doubts about it.
I have also reached out to Scarborough several times to understand their position, but they have yet to return phone calls or emails.
So, I’m going to remain skeptical until I see proof of their claim and FEMA’s new Atlas 14 maps. FEMA may release them in 2026. But the proposed maps will then go through public comment and revision cycles. That could mean they won’t become official for at least another three years.
Make This An Election Issue
In my opinion, the best use for this property would be to turn it into a state park. That would help protect areas both up and downstream. With an election coming up next year, our representatives will have their ears to the ground. The time to start a letter-writing campaign is now. Contact all candidates.
Turn this into an election issue.
Make sure we elect someone who is more interested in protecting public safety than private profits.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/4/25
2989 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/20251103-CU-of-Southern-Area.jpg?fit=1100%2C561&ssl=15611100adminadmin2025-11-04 12:01:042025-11-04 14:53:30Floodplain Maps for 5,316 Acres West of Kingwood Contradict Developer’s Claim
10/24/25 @ 5PM– FEMA and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston office have issued a flood watch for the Houston region that will last until October 26 at 5:00AM CDT. See details below.
WHAT
Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE
A portion of southeast Texas, including the following areas, Austin, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston Island, Grimes, Houston, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Inland Matagorda, Madison, Matagorda Islands, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Southern Liberty, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington and Wharton.
WHEN
From late tonight through early Sunday morning.
IMPACTS
Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS
Although soils are dry ahead of this heavy rainfall event, guidance for high rainfall rates suggests some instances of flash flooding. There will be two rounds of heavy rainfall with the first one being late Friday night into Saturday morning and then again Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
Expect widespread rainfall totals of 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts up to 4-6″. Rainfall rates in the strongest storms could exceed 2-3″ per hour. That could lead to flash flooding if these rainfall rates occur for a prolonged period of time.
We will see a lull in the activity late Saturday morning into the afternoon. That will allow for drainage. So, the flood threat is primarily driven by the potential for high rainfall rates.
You should monitor forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
RadarScope Image
At 4:15 PM, a large complex of thunderstorms moving across the Hill Country could clearly be seen on radar images.
From Radarscope Pro at 4:15 PM on 10/24/25 using multiple radar sensors.
The warning areas within the boxes above currently indicate:
Hail from 1″ to 2.5″ in diameter
Winds up to 60 MPH
Rainfall of 1′ to 2″ per hour
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, says tornadoes are possible.
The first line of thunderstorms should move through the Lake Houston area shortly before sunrise Saturday.
Second Line of Thunderstorms Expected Saturday Afternoon
Lindner added that a second round of storms looks to develop Saturday afternoon across the Brazos Valley. It should push southeast across our area. This threat will last from mid to late afternoon well into the evening hours on Saturday. The activity will move from northeast to southeast across the area.
ABC13’s future track predicted the Lake Houston area accumulations could approach six inches of rain after the second round clears the area.
The break between rounds of storms should reduce stream and channel flooding.
Lake Report
Lake Conroe is already down a foot and not releasing water.
Lake Houston is down almost half a foot and releasing water at the rate of 4,500 cubic feet per second. The City hopes to lower the lake by a foot ahead of the storm.
Stay Weather Aware
Keep an eye on the sky. Monitor weather forecasts and lake reports. Here’s how.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Radarscope-4P-10.24.25.png?fit=2178%2C1368&ssl=113682178adminadmin2025-10-24 16:59:362025-10-24 19:39:40FEMA Issues Flood Watch for Entire Houston Region
9/6/2025 – On August 26, 2025, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) transmitted an update to Commissioners Court on the release of new flood insurance rate maps. The update showed the release date slipping yet again. This makes at least the seventh postponement in four years.
The amount of time it’s taking FEMA to vet the maps may now exceed the time it took HCFCD to create the maps.
Visual Chronology of Updates
Below are seven screen captures that I took from MAAPnext’s website, presentations and transmittals through the years.
On 11/30/2021, the maps were going to be available to the public by Spring, 2022.But by Jan 26, 2022, the release had slipped to summer or fall that year.
By November 2022, the release was an unspecified date sometime in 2023, a much larger window.
On June 8, 2023, the release date window widened to two full years. Three months later, on Sept. 6, 2023, the release had been firmly pushed to 2024.The update presented at the 8/26/25 Commissioners Court meeting shows release of maps in early 2026, but……copy on the MAAPnext project-schedule page says “end of 2026.“
Keep in mind that it can take another 2-3 years for the preliminary maps to go through public review, public comment, appeals and become the final “effective” maps.
Many different groups depend on having the best information available. They include, but are not limited to:
Developers
Home builders
Home buyers
Home sellers
Lenders
Realtors
Politicians
The National Flood Insurance Program
In some cases, their interests may be diametrically opposed.
Delays may help some in the short term. However, in the long term, sound public policy must rest on data, not delusions.
HCFCD does not have to wait for FEMA to release MAAPnext data. The District could make it publicly available with the flip of a software switch today.
If FEMA wants to change something, HCFCD can modify its maps later. But at least in the meantime, all those interests above could make decisions based on the best available data.
Harris County Appraisal District and HAR.com report that 85,163 single-family homes sold in Harris County in 2024. The same HAR report gives a total dollar volume of $41.1 billion in 2024 for single-family home sales in the Houston region. And those numbers do noteven include townhomes, condos, or commercial real estate.
I would urge anyone who suspects they may have purchased a home in a floodplain that isn’t currently shown in a floodplain – or anyone considering purchasing a home – to complain to the Texas Board of Professional Engineers and Land Surveyors.
If they start yanking licenses, we may quickly see maps more current than those developed 24 years ago after Tropical Storm Allison.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/25
2930 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250906-7.18.35-PM.jpg?fit=1100%2C677&ssl=16771100adminadmin2025-09-06 21:05:342025-09-06 23:49:09Flood Insurance Rate Maps Slip for Fourth Straight Year
