Average But Unusual 2025 Hurricane Season Ends Today
11/30/2025 – Today marks the end of the 2025 hurricane season. It was average in terms of the number of storms, but unusual in terms of where they tracked. These three screen captures from the National Hurricane Center tell the story.
This table shows the strength and timing of each.
And this table compares the 2025 season to a 30-year average (1991-2020).
So, the Atlantic basin had one less named storm, two fewer hurricanes, and one more major hurricane than in an average year. But for the most part, they stayed away from the U.S.
Actual Vs. Predicted
For those keeping track, in April, Colorado State University researchers predicted an above-average season with
- 17 named storms
- 9 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Then in May, NOAA also predicted an above-average season with:
- 13 – 19 named storms
- 6 – 10 hurricanes
- 3 – 5 major hurricanes
CSU also predicted the probability of where storms would make landfall. Texas residents, they said, had a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a major hurricane landfall this season. Those chances increased to 44% for a hurricane and 70% for a named storm. Oops.
All in, I’d say NOAA’s National Hurricane Center predictions came closer to the actual numbers, though neither was very far off.
Actual Vs. Averages
But how did the 2025 season compare to the long-term averages?
- Over a 50-year period (1949–2008), the Gulf of Mexico averaged about 3.2 tropical storms per season, 1.6 hurricanes, and ~0.4 major hurricanes.
- On a basin-wide (Atlantic + Caribbean + Gulf) basis, typical recent-era (1991–2020) seasons averaged 14 named storms, ~7 hurricanes, and ~3 major hurricanes.
So, the Gulf had far less activity than in an average year. However, basin wide, we came close to the average.
How Unusual Was Gulf This Year?
How unusual is it for the Gulf to have no hurricanes? Over the long term, the probability is about 20%. So it’s unusual, but far from unprecedented. There are multiple historical examples of No-Gulf-Hurricane seasons.
The longest recorded “Gulf hurricane drought” on record lasted 1,080 days (≈ 3 years), from September 2013 until September 2016 — during that period, no hurricanes entered or developed in the Gulf, according to The Weather Channel.
Why does that happen occasionally? It usually reflects unfavorable conditions for storm formation or strengthening in our sub-basin (e.g., upper-level wind shear, atmospheric stability, unfavorable steering currents). But as the map above shows, that does not mean the overall Atlantic or Caribbean is quiet. Storms may still form and even become major hurricanes, but track elsewhere, as Melissa did.
Plan for Worst, Hope for Best
The variability — including periods of many storms — argues for resilience and planning, even if some seasons are quiet. The recent cyclones that struck Sri Lanka and Indonesia make good cases in point.
Deadly floods and landslides in Sri Lanka left at least 153 people dead with hundreds more still missing at this point. According to Reuters, more than 78,000 people have been displaced.
Another cyclone struck Indonesia and killed 435 people. It destroyed tens of thousands of homes and displaced more than 200,000 people. And the cascading effects are just starting. Flooding and landslides disrupt not only homes, but agriculture, transport, and supply chains — with ripple effects on food security, local economies, and displacement.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/30/25
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