What Happens When Flood Maps Don’t Illustrate True Risk
3/25/25 – Almost eight years after Hurricane Harvey and a massive region-wide effort to update flood maps, FEMA still features maps on its website based on decades-old data that don’t come close to showing true flood risk. The old maps cause confusion among homebuyers who may not understand their limitations. And that helps developers pursue and profit from risky ventures in floodplains.
Three-Year Delay for New Maps and Still Counting
FEMA has yet to release maps based on recent Atlas-14 data developed after Hurricane Harvey. Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) anticipated release of FEMA’s new preliminary maps three years ago and release of the final maps by now. See the timeline below published in 2020.

I requested the release date for the new maps from Harris County and Federal officials. However, they did not respond.
Delays Contribute to Confusion about Safety of New Developments
The delays have contributed to confusion about the safety of new developments near or in floodplains.
Take, for instance, the lawsuit between the City of Houston and one of the area’s largest developers. According to a Texas Supreme Court decision released last Friday, the Signorelli Companies want to develop more than 500 lots near the San Jacinto East Fork as part of The Commons of Lake Houston.
Plats show most of the lots outside the current 100-year floodplain. But floodplains will reportedly expand by 50-100% when the new flood maps come out. At that point, most if not all the lots will likely be deep in the floodplain.
So, the City imposed higher elevation requirements for homes in anticipation of the new flood maps. That triggered a property-rights lawsuit by the developer, which claimed the City’s requirements made the property “undevelopable.”
Sometimes We Just Never Learn
Sometimes, it feels as if we just never learn. I understand a company’s desire to make money from its land. But unsuspecting homebuyers could lose their life savings. Worse, more people could die.
Flood insurance is becoming unaffordable for many. Insurance companies are fleeing high-risk areas.
And we haven’t even mentioned yet the costs of flood mitigation, disaster relief, buyouts, and restoration of the natural ecosystems – that already protect people for free.
In my opinion, for the public good, some land just shouldn’t be built on.
The Commons of Lake Houston Proposal
The flood map for the Commons area on the East Fork was last updated in 2007. It is based on data acquired after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. New Atlas 14 rainfall data is 30-40% higher than previous estimates and represents the current best efforts of scientists.
The map below shows the extent of those 100- and 500-year floodplains in 2007 maps as dotted lines superimposed over a proposed new section of the Commons called the Crossing.

Two Pictures Worth 2,000 Woods
These two pictures, sent to me by a nearby resident of an existing home on higher ground in the Commons, illustrate the problem.

Think such a flood can’t happen again in your lifetime? That Harvey was a thousand-year storm?
It almost happened again in May 2024 during a no-name storm a month before the start of hurricane season. The screen capture below shows historical HCFCD data from a gage just upstream from the Commons. Note the last three entries.

That no-name storm produced flooding almost five feet higher than Imelda and only about four feet lower than Harvey. It was the second highest flood at that location since HCFCD started keeping records!
Will We Repeat Mistakes of the Past?
The thing about floodplains is that they keep growing with upstream development – especially as other developers push into wetlands near rivers and streams. And the area upstream from the Commons is growing very quickly.
At some point (like now), it may make more sense to donate this land to an organization such as the Bayou Land Conservancy, Houston Parks, or Texas Parks and Wildlife. That would offer the developer some tax benefits. That could also help protect the public, protect lenders, help hold down insurance rates, provide recreation, and reduce future mitigation costs. It would even likely add value to homes on higher ground.
Posted by Bob Rehak based on 3/25/25
2765 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.