8/17/24 – The clearing of trees blocking streams and channels in the Lake Houston Area has begun. The clearing began after a coordinated inventorying and reporting effort.
According to Chris Bloch, a member of the Bear Branch Trail Association Board, FEMA contractors working for Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD), were seen this morning clearing trees blocking Bens Branch. The stream cuts diagonally through the middle of Kingwood.
Fallen trees blocking Bens Branch
If left in the stream, the trees can catch other debris floating downstream and create log dams that back floodwater up into streets and homes. So, contractors are cutting the fallen trees into sections and removing them.
This morning, I found them hauling the logs and underbrush out of the woods with a Bobcat fitted with grappling jaws. They stacked the debris near Woodland Hills Drive to be hauled away.
However, in coming days, contractors will be using much larger equipment and actually going down into the channel to remove logs and haul them off.
According to Bloch, just cutting the logs into small sections and letting them float away in the next flood is not the answer. They could still harm unsuspecting boaters and waterskiers in Lake Houston.
Beware of Heavy Equipment with Limited Visibility
It’s unclear at this time how long the clearing operation will take. But Bloch estimates that it could easily take a week or more to get all the way down Bens Branch.
Other contractors may be working on other channels simultaneously. However, I have been unable to verify that at this time.
Photograph taken 8/17/24 near St. Martha School at Bens Branch and Woodland Hills Drive.
Residents should exercise caution when using greenbelt trails during the removal operation. Operators maneuvering in tight spaces have limited visibility when transporting logs and brush. They will use greenbelt trails in some places and CenterPoint easements in others.
Residents who use the trails to get to school or for recreation should consider wearing brightly colored shirts or reflective vests to increase their visibility.
Members of the Bear Branch Trail Association Board met with the contractor last night to show them where obstructions are in Bens Branch and other channels.
Note the size of some of those logs. The pile is 6-8 feet tall.
Inventorying the blockages was difficult. Now comes the really hard part.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/17/24
2545 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 40 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240817-DSC_0213.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-08-17 15:50:282024-08-17 16:12:00HCFCD Contractors Begin Clearing Trees Blocking Streams, Channels
8/9/24 – Here’s an unsolicited idea that could help improve efficiency of the Beryl recovery process: inventorying channel blockages in your area. Then supply Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) with a comprehensive, consolidatedlist. It could save them time when time is critical as we head into the peak of hurricane season.
HCFCD maintains more than 2,500 miles of bayous, creeks and manmade drainage channels, along with dozens of large stormwater detention basins across Harris County. And damage from Beryl has affected the entire county. Reportedly, the extent of the damage has HCFCD maintenance staff stretched to the max.
Implications for Maintenance
Maintenance has reportedly become HCFCD’s major focus of activity at the moment. No one has bandwidth to spare. So, this may be one of those times when citizens can help. Not by cleaning out ditches and streams themselves; that’s dangerous. But by reporting problems more efficiently and effectively.
Rather than having five different people report five different blockages on the same stream at five different times, so crews make five trips, perhaps one, consolidated report would help.
A consolidated report could:
Reduce the number of phone calls and emails to process, track and respond to
Help prioritize the hardest hit areas
Reduce the number of repeat trips to a single area
Make scheduling crews easier
Improve response time
Reduce flooding from blockages that may not have been reported.
How to Report Problems
Last week, I posted about ways to direct HCFCD to problems quickly, especially when street addresses might not apply. For instance, consider creeks that cut through greenbelt trails.
About that time, Chris Bloch, a board member of the Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA), sent me a dozen photos of blocked streams within his association.
He had reported them all to HCFCD simultaneously in one consolidated request. That inspired the idea for this post.
I’m sure flood control would like your help identifying blockages any way they can get it, whether requests are individual or consolidated. As a former business owner, I always looked for ways to operate more efficiently. This could be one of those times. Collectively, we have a simple way to help.
Walk your greenbelts looking for problems. Then produce a thorough, consolidated report that identifies channel numbers and locations, and submit it to HCFCD:
The Lake Houston Area has dozens, if not hundreds of community and trail associations that could help with this task.
So thousands of different HCFCD trips could be greatly reduced.
Below are five photos submitted by Bloch from among many more taken on the six miles of channels within BBTA’s boundaries. They come from ONE stretch of ONE creek. And Bloch reported them all at ONCE.
Calling on All HOAs and Trail Associations
Each blockage shown above could catch other trees floating downstream in future storms and create log jams that back water up and flood neighborhoods. They are invisible from the air, hidden by the dense tree canopy.
To help ensure blockages get addressed ASAP, every trail or community association should consider submitting a consolidated list of issues within their respective areas.
Walking 2,500 miles of channels is like walking across America. It ain’t easy.
Think how much time consolidated inventorying of channel blockages could save HCFCD staff who are already stretched thin.
Please share this post with your HOA and Trail Association board members in your area. Perhaps they can help identify volunteers, which may include scouts eager to earn hiking, photography community service and mapping merit badges.
2537 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 30 since Beryl
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/9/24
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240803-Bens-Branch-Obstruction-3.jpg?fit=1100%2C717&ssl=17171100adminadmin2024-08-09 20:34:182024-08-11 21:43:30Inventorying Channel Blockages Could Help HCFCD
8/4/24 – Yesterday’s post about power disruptions due to “tree touches” drew of flood of responses from all parts of the Lake Houston Area. Many were eager to meet with CenterPoint face-to-face and discuss grievances going back decades.
Among the many responses, one stood out. Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA) board member, provided a detailed list of problems that his association encounters when trying to work with the company.
I have lightly edited Bloch’s letter for brevity without changing any thoughts. It shows the lengths our unpaid volunteers go to in order to serve their community. I took all photos below today on BBTA property to illustrate the issues Bloch talks about.
Bob,
The Bear Branch Trail Association property has many power line easements crossing it. In each of the last three years, CenterPoint has had contractors on BBTA property cutting back vegetation. I do not know about other trail associations, but CenterPoint has actively tried to manage their right of way (ROW) through BBTA property.
In all cases, CenterPoint contractors cut back vegetation at a greater width than the CenterPoint easement. We have not objected to that practice as long as it is within reason. But we have encountered several other persistent problems.
Not Removing Debris
In numerous cases, we have identified trees on BBTA property leaning toward power line easements. In some cases, CenterPoint, has taken down the trees, but it is their policy not to remove the debris. We have had to bear the cost of removal or leave it to rot. If the tree is in a highly visible area, we pay to have it removed.
CenterPoint easement through BBTA property behind the Kings Forest Pool. Note debris left behind and tree still leaning over pole.
Working Near Power Lines
At other times, CenterPoint feels BBTA should hire contractors to remove trees near power lines. BBTA contractors are highly qualified and professional, but they often refuse to remove trees near power lines. They fear for their safety. (See photo above.) As we work through these issues, delays can expose the public to higher risk of power outages.
Taking Out the Trash
We also have had a consistent problem with CenterPoint contractors leaving ROW debris on BBTA property.
We document these instances with photos and complain to CenterPoint. They respond by claiming their contractors should have removed the debris.
CenterPoint usually asks us to document locations. Eventually contractors may return to remove debris. But…
We do not feel we should have to supervise CenterPoint contractors. CenterPoint should have their own inspectors monitor contractors’ work.
Chris Bloch, BBTA Board Member
BBTA trail behind Kings Forest Pool
Homeowner Reporting Issues
We actively monitor power line rights of way to identify problems. And we notify CenterPoint when we find them. We feel it’s part of our responsibility. But their own contractors do not seem to report issues to CenterPoint.
And unfortunately, we do not see all the problems. Many originate on adjoining homeowner properties. In my opinion, nearly half of power line damages start there. I suspect the vast majority of homeowners do not report problem trees. And if they did, they would likely not volunteer to have trees removed at their own expense.
Whose Job Is It?
CenterPoint seems to avoid removing trees that threaten power lines if they are not on the CenterPoint ROW. This contributes to the number of trees that fall on power lines.
Giving Notice
And CenterPoint rarely advises us when accessing their right of way through our trails.
CenterPoint often uses BBTA trails to access downed power lines in many locations. (See below.) Their heavy equipment has damaged trails, left deep ruts and created unsightly holes in underbrush. In one case, they even ran over saplings newly planted by students.
Equipment cut across trail and through underbrush to get to Centerpoint easement.
Refusing to Pay for Most Damages
But CenterPoint has refused to pay to repair the damage. They say their out of state contractors are responsible.
BBTA has threatened to sue CenterPoint, but eventually BBTA usually bears the cost of replacing damaged trails.
To reduce this chronic problem, we have now upgraded our specifications for trail repairs to make trails stronger.
In the past, when CenterPoint damaged trees on BBTA property, they donated replacement trees. That’s good. We hope they will respond the same way this time.
Better Management Approach Needed…All Around
Damage to power infrastructure can be much better managed. But it will take a more cooperative approach between CenterPoint, Trail Associations, and Homeowner Associations.
CenterPoint isn’t the only utility that we occasionally grapple with. Comcast damaged greenbelts, too. And it is our understanding that Optimum, Brightspeed and AT&T all plan fiberoptic installations in the near future.
We look forward to resolving these conflicts in a way that benefits all parties.
Chris Bloch
Bear Branch Trail Association Board Member
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/4/24
2532 days since Hurricane Harveyand 27 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240804-RJR_3750.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-08-04 20:25:092024-08-04 20:43:03Many Eager to Discuss CenterPoint Power Outage Issues
8/3/24 – Yesterday was a start. Kingwood residents and political leaders met in several areas hard hit by Hurricane Beryl to discuss ways to improve recovery efforts. The idea: to start a dialog about steps that Houston Public Works, CenterPoint, community leaders, and residents can take together to reduce disruptions from future flooding and power outages.
Connectedness of Issues and Domino Effects
The recovery discussions took place on streets still clogged with debris that were near power line corridors, greenbelt trails, a school and two sewage “lift stations.”
Centerpoint representative addresses group including Houston City Council Members Fred Flickinger (center) and Twila Carter (right); State Rep. Charles Cunningham (upper right); and Dee Price, KSA President (striped shirt).
Lift stations pump sewage uphill to treatment plants. When treatment plants are downhill, gravity does the work – a much more reliable solution. Without power, or when flooded, sewage from the lift stations can back up into people’s homes and overflow.
The City of Houston has hundreds of such lift stations. And during Beryl, Houston Public works shuttled backup generators back and forth between them. They tried to buy enough time to keep the lift stations from backing up and overflowing.
Unfortunately, the shuttling didn’t work in parts of Woodstream Village. There, residents talked about backed up sewage flowing from homes into streets and then Lake Houston.
Chris Kalman, Woodstream resident, talked about how problems are becoming progressively worse. “Centerpoint was awfully quiet when asked about repeated power outages in this area going on 18-plus years now. No real answer.”
The solution, according to a Public Works spokesperson Greg Eyerly, is to buy more generators. But that could take years in a city struggling with other urgent budget issues. And recovery can’t wait.
Cambio (left), State Rep. Cunningham (center) and Eyerly (right) discussing lift stations in Woodstream.
Preventing/Reducing Outages
Related recovery discussions about preventing or reducing power outages took place throughout the morning. According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s final 2004 report on Utility Vegetation Management, “tree touches” are generally cited as the single largest cause of electric power outages. They occur when trees, or portions of trees, grow or fall into overhead power lines.
In Kingwood, trees have grown up under or around power lines in many places. In fact, many residents have commented that if not for recent Beryl-related trimming, they would’t even have known power lines were there.
Trees touching power lines near Deerwood Elementary where group first gathered yesterday.Power to nearby residents was out for 9.5 days after Beryl.
Unfortunately, from a recovery/electric reliability point of view, Kingwood is in a region that experiences frequent high winds and heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall supports fast growth of tall trees. And frequent high winds push those trees into power lines.
So another major focus of recovery discussions included:
CenterPoint vegetation management practices, especially maintenance intervals (which they avoided disclosing)
Trees that fall from trail association property onto CenterPoint power lines
Removal of debris that can clog storm sewers
Who is responsible for what
How one group’s performance or lack thereof can affect electric reliability and related issues for others.
Need for a New Approach Involving Trail and Community Associations
At-Large City Council Member Twila Carter said, “CenterPoint must have a collective conversation, resulting in a plan with KSA, the HOAs and Trail Associations to address maintenance. The thoughts of “In the past, that’s the way we’ve always done it,” or “the way it’s always been” no longer work for this community. We need to address the community as it is today, not how it was planned 50 years ago.”
District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger said, “A meeting between the trail associations and CenterPoint will make a significant difference. It was the best thing to come out of today.”
Flickinger was referring to a discussion with Dee Price, KSA President. Price agreed to set up a meeting with Kingwood trail associations, community associations, CenterPoint and the council members.
Flickinger continued, “There has to be significantly more aggressive vegetation management in the future.”
Kaaren Cambio, Dan Crenshaw’s assistant, explained how the homeowner and trail associations around Lake Conroe regularly inspect resident properties for trees and branches that threaten power lines. She said they send letters to residents requiring them to take down such trees or trim them back.
CenterPoint can trim back limbs and trees that encroach on their easements. But CenterPoint cannot take down trees on private property. That includes trail association property. So recovery needs to be a cooperative effort.
Chris Bloch, a long-time Bear Branch Trail Association (BBTA) Board Member, was not at the meeting, but observed, “The number of trees and limbs that fell during Beryl was easily 2X+ what we had during Ike. I attribute this to two summers of drought which stressed the trees and then an exceptionally wet spring.”
Costs of Burying Power Lines Not Clear
Flickinger also said, “I’m pushing for more underground electrical lines. I want to see the analysis of the costs. I know it’s expensive, but I believe we are paying for it incrementally every time there is a storm.” Flickinger cited lost wages, the cost of backup generators, debris cleanup, and more.
CenterPoint responded that the costs of burying wires are location specific and the costs of repairing underground cables, when cut, are much higher. However, CenterPoint offered no specifics about the cost of burying power lines in Kingwood.
Impacts on the Elderly and Ill
Cambio also talked extensively about the impact of power outages on hospitals plus nursing and retirement homes.
Many operate in multi-story buildings. Elderly in wheel chairs rely on elevators. But without power, they are trapped. They can’t get up or down stairs to get to doctors. Nor do they have power for dialysis, breathing machines, etc.
Kingwood Hospital had a backup generator. But, reportedly, it was insufficient to power the entire facility.
Cambio recommended changes to state law, requiring hospitals, nursing homes and retirement homes to have sufficient backup-generator power to operate elevators and air conditioning.
The only problem: According to Chris Coulter of Texas Power Agents, such backup generators require regular maintenance. They also require oil and fuel, such as gasoline, which may be hard to find during widespread power outages. After Beryl, the lines I found at functioning gasoline stations stretched for more than a half mile.
Voluntary Best Management Practices May Not Be Enough
I asked Coulter, who was not at yesterday’s roving recovery meeting, for recommendations about how to improve electric reliability.
He immediately focused on vegetation management and tied the growth of vegetation over time with the increasing frequency of power outages.
The FERC report cited above says that utility vegetation management programs represent one of the largest recurring maintenance expenses for electric utility companies in North America.
Coulter jokingly characterized companies like CenterPoint as “tree trimming companies that happen to distribute power.”
“The odds are that every single electric customer in the US and Canada has, at one time or another, experienced a sustained electric outage as a direct result of a tree and power line conflict.”
This FERC report is well written and easy to understand. It makes dozens of common-sense recommendations to improve electric reliability. I recommend it.
Coulter also referred me to NERC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. NERC describes itself as “… an international regulatory authority whose mission is to assure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to the reliability and security of the grid.”
Coulter said that NERC rules recognize different sizes of lines in regard to vegetation management requirements. Heavy fines apply if vegetation is ignored around lines that carry more than 100 kV.
However, lines that carry less power often get neglected – something that hampers recovery.
Coulter said that many of his Kingwood customers told him about seeing several such lines for the first time after Beryl. They didn’t even know the lines were there because they were so badly overgrown!
Said Coulter, “The NERC rules are very specific about frequency and minimum vegetation clearance distances for larger transmission (above 100 kV). Fines are steep so the utilities pay close attention and abide by the rules. However, Kingwood has a large spiderweb of distribution lines that are below that bright-line designation.”
Perhaps the fines need to apply to smaller power lines.
Next Step: Broaden the Discussion
Dee Price is reaching out to trail and community associations to set up a meeting about vegetation management. It will also involve our elected representatives, CenterPoint and Houston Public Works.
At a minimum, I came away from yesterday’s discussions with a feeling that we need to:
Raise awareness of vegetation management issues within the community
Handle those on private property that could affect electric lines by ourselves
Report problems on or near CenterPoint easements that they may not be aware of.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/3/24
2531 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 26 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240802-RJR_3715.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-08-03 17:43:442024-08-03 19:23:45Planning a Better, Faster Recovery from the Next Storm
7/19/24 – With 4-5 inches of rain expected in the next few days, storm sewer inlets, ditches, and gutters blocked by tree debris from Beryl could form a secondary crisis. Especially if the downpours become intense enough to cause street flooding that floats debris.
A Widespread Issue
Jeff Miller from Elm Grove Village in Kingwood alerted me to this problem. Miller graciously allowed me to use some photos he sent. I won’t bother to caption them. They all show the same thing: storm debris that could get swept into storm drains or that blocks ditches.
However, I will feature ten from different villages in Kingwood that show how widespread the problem is. I could show a hundred. A drive around Kingwood earlier today confirmed that this problem exists throughout the community.
Photos from 7/19/24
And last, but certainly not least…
The culvert under this drive is totally blocked by debrisfrom a tree that fell on resident’s house.
Some Neighborly Advice
The power outages from Beryl are bad enough. Don’t create another secondary crisis.
Debris in ditches, gutters and storm drain inlets can block orderly drainage and back water up into neighborhoods and homes…especially if the homes are not elevated much above street level.
Help yourself and your neighbors by making sure your debris pile doesn’t pour into the street or block your ditch. Ask tree companies and lawn maintenance providers to pile debris at least a foot back from the curb. Admittedly, that can be hard in the case of ditches. But please try to leave some room for the water to flow around.
Budget Impact Waiting Down the Road
A former Harris County Flood Control District executive confirmed that drains blocked by debris is a common problem. “It is a concern, especially with the rain predicted for the next few days. There is not much anyone can do about it now though. Maybe Public Works can clean the drains later this year after things are back to normal.” Unfortunately, that could take time and money, creating another potential secondary crisis involving the City’s budget.
7/7/24, 10:30 AM – The National Weather Service (NWS) and FEMA have issued a tropical storm warning that includes Houston, Kingwood and Spring.
Beryl is moving closer to the Texas Coast and turning a little more northward. Although it has not yet re-intensified into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center predicts it will, and that it could even turn into a Category 2 before landfall. The center will likely pass near the west side of Houston.
NWS and FEMA have also issued a flood watch that will last until 7AM on Tuesday, July 9. It includes most of SE Texas.
Beryl position at 8:30 AM CDT. A turn toward the NNW and N is likely today before Beryl reaches the coast.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Expected in North Houston Tonight
Tropical storm force winds could arrive this evening. The high winds will spread inland toward the I-10 corridor by early Monday morning. They should reach the HWY 105 corridor by sunrise Monday.
So authorities urge you to finish hurricane prep as soon as possible.
Re-Intensification into Hurricane Possible
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “Beryl is starting to move into more favorable conditions for development and if/when an inner core forms…more rapid intensification will be possible.”
NHC forecasts that Beryl will make landfall at 85mph. However, they also say that winds could reach 100mph.
In inland Harris County, winds could average 45-55 MPH with gusts to 80 MPH.
“There remains the potential for fairly significant intensification of Beryl in the last 12 hours prior to landfall.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Prolonged Power Outages Predicted
Lindner warns the public to be prepared for extended power outages. Widespread power outages are now likely over a large part of the area on Monday.
Downed trees and tree limbs as well as damage to roofs, windows, etc. will all be possible.
Centerpoint issued a press release saying that it is already mobilizing crews.
All outdoor objects should be safely secured by this evening in the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Tropical storm force winds will reach the coast this evening. They will spread inland toward the I-10 corridor by early Monday morning and reach the HWY 105 corridor by sunrise Monday.
Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Potential
Widespread rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are likely along and to the right of the track of Beryl, with isolated higher amounts under bands where training occurs. Banding may continue into Monday night and possibly Tuesday.
The heaviest rainfall will likely be west of I-45 on Monday. High rainfall rates in bands will produce urban flooding and rapid rises on area creeks and bayous.
Some flooding of creeks, bayous and rivers will be possible with the forecasted rainfall. River responses will continue into mid- to late week.
FEMA’s flood watch lasts through Tuesday morning. It says, “Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”
Expect street flooding, as well as rises along area rivers, creeks, streams, and bayous.
Other Dangers Near Coast
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautions that there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass. That includes Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.
NHC also say that rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.
Finally, NHC says that a few tornadoes could occur along the middle and upper Texas Coast through tonight, and across eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Monday.
Lake Report
At this moment, Lake Houston is releasing 9,626 CFS…the most the lake’s old gates can release at one time.
Lake Conroe is not pre-releasing any water; the lake is currently 9 inches below its normal level. The SJRA’s models predict that should be enough to handle the expected rainfall north of the lake. Let’s hope they are right.
7/6/24 – As of 7 AM on Saturday morning, Beryl was centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Once a powerful Cat 5 hurricane, the storm emerged from its trek across the Yucatan as a tropical storm. However, it will likely re-intensify into a hurricane just before making landfall. The storm is about to enter an area of low wind sheer and high water temperatures.
Likely Landfall Near Matagorda Bay
According to the National Hurricane Center, Beryl will most likely come ashore between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. But all of Houston is now in the cone of uncertainty. That means we have an equal chance of taking a direct hit from the storm.
Heavy Rain Threat
Hurricane watches and storm surge warnings are up for most of the Texas Coast up to High Island. But the most likely impact in the Lake Houston Area will be heavy rains. At this hour, the National Weather Service predicts 4-8 inches. But Jeff Lindner, the Harris County Meteorologist warned that isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible. That’s as much as the area north of us received in the early May flood of this year.
Overall, NWS says we have a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall in the next five days.
Flash Flood Threat
Arrival Time in Houston Area
We should begin to feel the effects of the storm Sunday evening.
Rain from the storm could linger for a day or two as Beryl becomes a tropical depression and the center of the storm curves north of us before heading to the northeast.
Inundation Areas
NOAA issued this map for Harris County. It shows possible areas of inundation. NOAA urged people in affected areas to follow evacuation warnings.
Lakes Not Being Lowered at this Hour
At this hour (9AM Saturday), the SJRA is not lowering Lake Conroe. Nor is the Coastal Water Authority lowering Lake Houston. However, the City of Houston did issue a warning yesterday afternoon that it might lower Lake Houston.
The good news: there’s little chance that we will experience tropical storm force winds this far north.
For the Latest Updates
For the latest watches and warnings associated with Beryl, consult the National Hurricane Center website. They update it every few hours. And the next few hours will be critical. There’s still a chance that the storm could shift more toward Houston.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/24 based on information from NHC, NWS and Harris County.
2503 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/20240706-Beryl-7.6.24.jpg?fit=1100%2C786&ssl=17861100adminadmin2024-07-06 09:28:122024-07-06 09:28:13Beryl Update, Saturday AM
7/2/24 – Beryl has become an incredibly intense hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 MPH and a central pressure of 935mb. See this Infrared Satellite Loop at Tropical Tidbits. This is an unprecedented hurricane event for July.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record since 1851. It beats out hurricane Emily (2005), which became a Category 5 on July 17.
Beryl is now moving through the central Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Status Overview as of 8 AM 7/2/24
Based on NOAA aircraft data, hurricane force winds (75mph) extend outward 40 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds (40mph) extend outward 125 miles from the center.
Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today. It should pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.
Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as it passes Jamaica and the Caymans.
Intensity Forecast Uncertain
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautions that Beryl’s intensity forecast is rather uncertain. Model guidance indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later on, factors such as:
Possible interaction with the Jamaican elevated terrain
Dry air intrusions
Structure of the vertical wind shear
…will all play a role in the rate of weakening.
As Beryl approaches the Yucatan, models show quite a wide range of solutions – from a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane. However, the NHC forecast shows Beryl reaching the Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 hours and emerging as a tropical storm into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
Track Shifted North
Beryl has tracked slightly north of predictions during the last 12 hours. This is likely due to the much stronger intensity of the hurricane.
Overall the direction has been trending north over the last 24 hours. Beryl is being steered by a strong high pressure ridge to the north. A W to WNW motion through the next 72 hours is likely. That will likely bring core of the hurricane to the eastern Yucatan early Friday morning.
Beryl will cross into the southern Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend. At that time, the current ridge of high pressure over the southern plains will be breaking down and moving east. Low pressure should replace it, pulling Beryl a little more to north, compared to the current track.
However, there is also uncertainty with the track in the Gulf of Mexico. It is difficult to tell how organized Beryl will be when it emerges from the Yucatan. It is also difficult to predict how quickly the southern plains high will break down.
Such factors also will affect the forward speed of the hurricane.
Due to Beryl’s high forward speed, it could drop a foot of rain on Jamaica. But as it slows in the Gulf…
Lindner urges people along the Texas and Louisiana coast to monitor Beryl’s progress closely. NHC is now updating information on Beryl every few hours on this page.
For those who need a refresher course in hurricane preparation, ReduceFlooding’s Links page contains advice from 19 authoritative sources.
6/30/24, 4 PM – Beryl intensified from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds this afternoon.
Satellite image taken at 3:30 CDT
Elsewhere, Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. NHC predicts it will become a tropical storm by tonight and make landfall near where Alberto did in Mexico less than two weeks ago.
4PM Update on Beryl
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that the hurricane continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. Beryl has made only a minor shift to the north since this morning, following the trend in the latest models.
Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when the hurricane passes over portions of the Windward Islands. At highest risk: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.
Latest cone of uncertainty for Beryl as of 3PM CDT, 6/30/24
As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should weaken it slightly. However, NHC predicts that Beryl will remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.
So far, the storm’s path has been eerily reminiscent of Harvey’s.
Here are the latest track forecasts of various models for today’s storm.
Some models take the path toward Houston, but the consensus seems a bit west.
Sea Surface Temps in Gulf
If Beryl makes it to the Gulf, it will encounter favorable sea surface temps.
Sea Surface Temperature departures from normal. 2 degrees Celsius = 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.
It is too early to predict atmospheric conditions in the Gulf next weekend.
Record-Breaking Beryl
As it spins across the Atlantic, Beryl has already set two records:
Farthest east a hurricane has ever formed in the Atlantic in June
Earliest Cat 4 Hurricane on record.
Before this storm, the record earliest Category 4 hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 4PM CDT on 6/30/24
2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Beryl-4pm-5.30.24.jpg?fit=1100%2C817&ssl=18171100adminadmin2024-06-30 16:40:092024-06-30 20:18:23Beryl Goes from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in One Day
6/30/24, 7 AM CDT – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts that Hurricane Beryl could rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands early Monday morning. At 7 AM CDT, NHC estimated Beryl’s maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. That would currently make it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which estimates damage to structures at various wind speeds. (See below.)
High SSTs, Low Wind Shear
Sea surface temperatures in Beryl’s path reach 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit, more typical of August than June. And as Beryl moves westward, wind sheer is decreasing. Both factors favor rapid intensification.
Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward islands.
Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane’s intensity to level off, then start weakening around midweek, according to NHC.
Eye Wall Development
Recent satellite imagery shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the eyewall and a warming eye.
Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured the maximum wind speed this morning.
Beryl Continues to Track Mostly Westward
The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west at about 20 mph. There aren’t any significant track changes from the previous advisory. An extensive mid-level, high-pressure ridge north of Beryl will steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days.
Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track. NHC’s 4 AM Atlantic Standard Time update notes that track prediction is basically an update of the previous one.
The farther out you get, the more models diverge. The average of all models eventually shows the storm moving into the western Gulf.
Category 4 Risks
This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward Islands. Beryl will bring destructive winds, life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall and flooding for much of the Windward Islands tonight and Monday.
Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale Categories
For those new to the Gulf Coast, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed.
This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale estimates potential property damage. While all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes rated Category 3 and higher are known as major hurricanes.
Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life simply due to the strength of their winds.
Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods, and tornadoes.
Category
Sustained Winds
Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
1
74-95 mph
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
2
96-110 mph
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3 (major)
111-129 mph
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4 (major)
130-156 mph
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5 (major)
157 mph or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Beryl-with-Eye.jpg?fit=1100%2C660&ssl=16601100adminadmin2024-06-30 06:55:342024-06-30 07:52:55Beryl Expected to Become Category 4 Hurricane
