Tag Archive for: AP

AP Reports Shine Light on Secrecy of Flood Risk Below Dams

8/25/2024 – An investigation by the Associated Press shined a light on how information is being withheld by the government that affects flood risk below dams. The secrecy also affects the cost of flood insurance that residents below dams pay.

US59 at West Fork during Harvey
West Fork and US59 after 2017 release from Lake Conroe during Hurricane Harvey. Floodwaters stretched 2 miles wide.

Two Related Stories

A copyrighted story by David A. Lieb published by AP on 8/23/2024 was titled, “Takeaways from AP’s report on federal policies shielding information about potential dam failures.”

The story begins with, “Thousands of people live downstream from dams yet may not always realize the risks.”

On 8/24/24, Lieb wrote a related followup story also published by AP. It was titled, “Conflicting federal policies may cost residents more on flood insurance, and leave them at risk.”

It begins, “Conflicting federal policies may force thousands of residents in flood-prone areas to pay more for flood insurance or be left unaware of danger posed by dams built upstream from their homes and worksites, according to an Associated Press review of federal records and data.”

Lieb continues, “The problem stems from a complex set of flood policies and some national security precautions taken after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.”

Lieb covers recent emergency repairs in Georgia, Minnesota, New York, South Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin, forcing evacuations and costly repairs.

Let me try to summarize the essence of Lieb’s excellent research and articles. But first, lest you think this doesn’t affect you, let me remind you of a local example.

Local Example: Lake Livingston

Emergency repairs to the Lake Livingston Dam were made public earlier this year after 20 inches of rain fell upstream from the dam. Releases washed out some areas below it. But the nature of the repairs and who would be affected if the dam failed were kept under raps due to federal policies, according to the AP.

Key Takeaways from First AP Story

The AP Reports blame recent intense storms and aging dams on a series of emergency repairs and outright dam failures.

According to AP, “Conflicting federal policies may be inhibiting the ability of local officials to share details with residents, businesses and other property owners about the places that get could inundated with floodwaters if a dam were to fail. That same information gap also could be costing residents more for flood insurance.”

Below are some takeaways from the AP’s report on the conflicting federal policies. 

Flood Insurance Discounts vs. Secrecy of Inundation Data In Event of Dam Failure

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) oversees the national flood-insurance program. FEMA also oversees the Community Rating System that offers discounts on flood insurance to communities that score high on flood safety measures. 

A community that earns the best rankings (Class 1) earns its residents 45% discounts on their flood-insurance premiums. “But,” says Lieb, “it’s not easy to achieve. Just two of the 1,500 local governments taking part in the Community Rating System have earned the top discount for their residents.” That’s 0.13%.

Why only two? The Community Rating System focuses in part on dams. Receiving a Class 1 ranking requires communities “to maintain maps showing the homes, businesses and critical facilities that could get inundated with floodwaters if a dam were to fail,” says Lieb. The communities must also warn residents. But only four out of 1,500 communities nationwide have earned any credit for their local efforts regarding flood risk below dams. 

Secrecy about Dams and Indundation Stems from 9/11

Some federal agencies have prohibited the release of inundation maps for dams that they own or regulate, a legacy of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. They fear dams could become targets,

The Bureau of Reclamation, which owns 430 dams requires non-disclosure agreements when sharing dam inundation maps and emergency action plans with local officials. “That has inhibited officials from sharing specific information about the risks of dam failures with residents who could get flooded,” says Lieb.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) regulates about 1,800 power-producing dams. It too says dam inundation maps “could be useful to a person planning an attack.” FERC requires those receiving such information to sign non-disclosure agreements.

It took AP nearly two-and-half years after the news organization submitted a Freedom of Information Act request to FEMA to obtain the information regarding flood risk below dams that can cost homeowners money and lives.

Are Changes Coming?

The Bureau of Reclamation said it is revising its policies and will start allowing communities to publicly share information about dam inundation zones, including:

  • Potential flood-wave travel times
  • Flood depths and durations.

The Bureau said changes will begin in 2025, but will take 8+ years to complete. 

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers also has become more transparent. The Corps began posting dam inundation maps online in late 2021 after determining that releasing the information “is more beneficial to the public than any risk of misuse.”

“The information is more beneficial to the public than any risk of misuse.”

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in 2021 as reported by the AP

FEMA is considering potential changes to the Community Rating System for flood insurance.

This summer, FEMA opened a public comment period on potential changes to the Community Rating System. People can submit suggestions regarding flood risk below dams through Sept. 9. But FEMA doesn’t expect to make any changes until 2026 at the earliest, according to Lieb.

Flood Insurance Discounts in Houston and Harris County

Lieb’s second story focuses largely on the impacts to individual communities. It points out that FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program is available in 22,692 communities that have adopted and enforced floodplain management regulations.

Premium discounts range from 5% to 45%.

City of Houston’s 128,767 policy holders pay NFIP premiums totaling $38.71 billion thanks to a 25% community discount.

However, 97,365 NFIP policy holders in unincorporated Harris County pay $31.31 billion. They get a 15% discount.

Thus, Houston and Harris County earn up to 20-30% less in discounts than they otherwise might.

One can only wonder how many people would have built farther back from rivers downstream from Lake Conroe and Lake Houston had they had the dam information. The SJRA consistently cites the risk of dam failure with every release during a major flood.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/24

2553 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News

Noon, September 16, 2023 – An Associated Press headline this morning trumpeted “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England.” I immediately went to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website to see the most current conditions. Lee had been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone with 75 mph winds.

But it still covers a lot of territory. As of noon, Lee is producing 1-2 foot storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds in portions of Maine. NHC gave the northeastern tip of Maine a 5-15% chance of flash flooding. They predict 1-4 inches of rain over portions of the state that receive rain, though the extreme eastern tip may get up to 6 inches.

Satellite image shows Lee’s influence stretching from maritime Canada to New Jersey.

Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?

Next, I went to NHC’s Climatology page to see how unusual hurricanes are in New England. Because of the colder waters, they’re certainly not as frequent as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But they’re also not unusual as you can clearly see from the image below. It shows hurricane tracks going back to 1851.

Red lines show hurricanes with the winds from 64-90 mph.

Next, I looked at the points of origin for Atlantic storms in the 10-day period each season from Sept. 11 – 20.

Going back to 1851, we can see that dozens of storms have followed Lee’s path .

In fact, during September, there’s at least a 70% annual chance that a hurricane will affect this region (see below).

Lee’s track is THE most common for named storms in the Atlantic during September (red area).

Data goes from 1944 to 2020, but is normalized for 100 years. 1944 was the year NOAA started tracking hurricanes with aircraft.

The AP article related higher than normal sea surface temperatures to BOTH climate change and the risk of being affected by a hurricane in New England. It’s true that temperatures ARE above average off the New England coast this year. But it’s also true that temperatures cycle above and below an “average.” You can’t assume that sea surface temperatures ALWAYS increase.

This 28-second animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 2002-2011 shows how temperatures vary monthly and annually around the world as well as off the coast of New England.

Starting point of animation is August 2002. Note below-normal sea-surface temps off New England coast.

During the decade covered by the animation, SSTs varied from above to below average five times by my count.

It’s fair to relate one stronger than normal hurricane to higher than normal sea surface temperatures. But it’s not valid to assume that hurricanes will continue to get stronger when sea surface temperatures decrease.

The Curse of Data Truncation

And that brings me to my gripe – data truncation in reporting. “Truncation” means “cutting short,” for instance, when you pick start or stop points in an analysis to prove the trend you allege.

Example: you point to above-normal SSTs (this year) and one waning post-tropical storm. Then you conclude that “climate change could bring more monster storms like Lee.”

The implication: climate change is linear and temperatures are going straight up. Therefore, we can expect more monster storms in New England – where Lee will not even make landfall.

Reporting Turned into Advocacy

AP is a great news organization. But on the issue of climate uncertainty, they have crossed the line between reporting and advocacy. AP even admits it.

To their credit, in 2022, AP announced “a sweeping climate change initiative.” They hired 20 additional journalists to supplement existing staff already dedicated to covering climate change. Their mission: “to infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news…”

To help finance its climate coverage, AP accepts backing from several foundations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, which admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”

I’m not saying that AP or the Rockefeller Foundation deliberately misled people to further an agenda.

However, I can promise you that writers write about what clients want them to write about. And if they don’t, well, hundreds of other writers are lined up ready to take their jobs.

This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s just the way the world works.

Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation

Everyone should read critically and consult multiple sources. Triangulate on the truth. Had you read someone else’s coverage, you would have reached totally different conclusions. In that regard, I note several stories posted AFTER AP’s story on Lee that did not even mention climate change once. See CNN, CBS, New York Times, NBC, Reuters, USA Today, or Fox, for instance.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2023

2209 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.