Tag Archive for: 2024 Hurricane Season

Looking Back at the 2024 Hurricane Season

12/1/24 – The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season ended yesterday. The season predicted to be “extreme” turned out to be “above average,” according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, saw 18 named storms in 2024.

Of the 18, 11 became hurricanes and five became major hurricanes.

Comparison of 2024 to 30-Year Average

Each of these numbers is greater than the average for the 30-year period from 1991-2020. See table below.

 1991-2020 Average2024
Named Storms (39 mph or greater)1418
Hurricanes (74 mph or greater)711
Major Hurricanes (111 or greater)35
Source: National Hurricane Center

Landfalls in U.S.

According to NHC, five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S. Significantly, two of those storms made landfall as major hurricanes.

Comparison to Predictions

The Atlantic seasonal activity fell within the predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in the 2024 August Hurricane Season Outlook. 

Atypical Season Took Dip Where Peak Should Have Been

But 2024 was an atypical season. It started with a bang, fell into a lull, and then ended with a record.

Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Atlantic basin Category-5 hurricane on record. It caused significant storm surge flooding across parts of Texas and Louisiana after making landfall near Matagorda, Texas, as a Category-1 storm. People on my street are still cleaning up from Beryl!

However, later in the year, Mother Nature hit the pause button on tropical formation. Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service said, “Several possible factors contributed to the peak season lull in the Atlantic region. The particularly intense winds and rains over Western Africa created an environment that was less hospitable for storm development.”

But, strangely, at the time tropical activity should have been tapering off, we saw record-setting activity.

“Twelve named storms formed after the climatological peak of the season in early September. Seven hurricanes formed in the Atlantic since September 25 — the most on record for this period,” said the NHC.

Record Setters

Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Cat 5 storm on record for the Atlantic Basin.

Cat 4 Helene became the deadliest since Katrina in 2005. It caused more than 150 direct fatalities, mostly in North and South Carolina. Helene was also the strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region.

In late September, Hurricane Helene also marked the first time ever that NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasted a system to become a major hurricane before it became a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Hurricane Milton’s rate of rapid intensification was among the highest ever observed, with a 90-mile-per-hour increase in wind speed during the 24-hour period from early October 6 to early October 7. 

Milton’s central pressure dropped to 897 millibars – the lowest pressure for an Atlantic Hurricane since Wilma in 2005.

Storm-By-Storm Summary

The table below shows the dates and maximum winds of each named storm in the Atlantic basin during 2024.

NameDatesMax Wind (mph)
TS Alberto19-20 June50
MH Beryl28 June – 9 July165
TS Chris30 June – 1 July45
H Debbie3-9 August80
H Ernesto12-20 August100
H Francine9-12 September100
TS Gordon11-17 September45
MH Helene24-27 September140
H Isaac26-30 September105
TS Joyce27 September – 1 October50
MH Kirk29 September – 7 October145
H Leslie2-12 October105
MH Milton5-10 October180
TS Nadine19-20 October60
H Oscar19-22 October85
TS Patty2-4 November65
MH Rafael4-10 November120
TS Sara14-18 November50
Source: NOAA. TS = Tropical Storm, H = Hurricane, MH = major hurricane.

While the Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on November 30, NOAA satellites continue to keep watch for any developing storms.

NHC reminds us that hurricanes can and do form during any month of the year.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/1/2024

2651 Days since Hurricane Harvey



It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over

10/14/24 – Looking at the National Hurricane Center’s afternoon update, Yogi Berra’s famous quote comes to mind – “It ain’t over till it’s over.” Of course, Yogi was speaking of baseball and I’m speaking of the 2024 hurricane season.

NHC posted a new 7-day outlook at 1:28 this afternoon showing two areas of concern. One in the middle of the Atlantic has a 50% chance of development. The one in the western Caribbean has a 20% chance.

The first is where Cat 5 Hurricane Kirk just formed. The latter is the same general area where Cat 5 Hurricanes Helene and Milton formed within the last three weeks.

Central Atlantic Formation Chance Now 60 Percent

Here’s what NHC has to say about the orange area in the Central Atlantic.

A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days.

However, this system will move generally westward toward warmer waters. There, environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.

A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.

National Hurricane Center

Formation chance through 48 hours is only 10 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is currently 60 percent. The formation chance has steadily increased for this area during the last few days.

Western Caribbean

Regarding that area in the Western Caribbean, NHC says this.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week.

Some development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.

Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is 20 percent at this hour.

This is near where Helene and Milton began.

Remember: six more weeks of hurricane season. And it ain’t over till it’s over. So keep checking NHC daily.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/14/24

2603 Days since Hurricane Harvey

2024 Hurricane Season YTD vs Average, Projections

9/30/2024 – Most forecasters predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be a monster, based on high sea-surface temperatures, Accumulated Cyclone Energy and a developing La Niña. But so far, judging by the numbers, the season has been close to average.

I compiled the tables below through data on the National Hurricane Center archives and news reports.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary to Date

Through September 30By This Date in Average YearIn 2024
Named Storms1011
Hurricanes54
Major Hurricanes22

30-Year Average for Climate

Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

Here’s how a season typically develops.

How 2024 hurricane season stacks up against 30 year average so far.

Beryl set a record this year. It was the earliest Cat 5 hurricane in recorded history. Otherwise, you can see that this season lines up with the averages for “number of storms” pretty well. Compared to the average for the last three decades, we’ve had:

  • One more named storm
  • One less hurricane
  • The same number of major hurricanes.

Here’s a breakdown on the storms so far this year.

2024-Storm Data Through September

StormDatesMax Winds
TS Alberto19-20 Jun50
MH Beryl28 Jun-9 Jul165
TS Chris30 Jun-1 Jul45
H  Debby 3-9 Aug80
H  Ernesto12-20 Aug100
H Francine9-14 Sept100
TS Gordon13-15 Sept45
MH Helene24-29 Sept140
H Isaac25-? Sept105
TS Joyce27-30 Sept50
TS Kirk30 Sept – ?*
*TS Kirk formed today and is still strengthening. Forecasts say it will likely become a hurricane by 10/1 and Cat 3 by 10/2.

Comparing the two tables above, you can see that we had:

  • Two storms in August compared to the normal four
  • Six storms in September compared to the normal four.

That raises the question, “Will be see a sudden burst of late season activity that fulfills the dire predictions for the season?”

Comparison to Predictions

Earlier this year, I ran several stories about three seasonal outlooks.

Colorado State University predicted a 50%+ increase over the 30-year average for each category (named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes).

TropicalStormRisk.com, a British website which has won insurance industry awards predicted that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 would be more than 50% above the long-term average (1950-1923) and 30% above the average for the last three decades (1991-2020).

And as late as August 8, NOAA said we had a 90% chance of an above average hurricane season with:

  • 17-20 named storms
  • 8-13 hurricanes
  • 4-7 major hurricanes

Of course, the season doesn’t end for two more months, but we’re already four months into it. And usually, by October, activity is tailing off.

peak of hurricane season

Unless there’s a sudden burst late season activity, we will probably fall short of those dire estimates this year.

Of course, as Helene’s 600 mile swath of destruction just reminded us, it only takes one storm to make a bad year for you.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/30/2024

2589 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Third Named Storm Puts 2024 Hurricane Season a Month Ahead

7/1/24. – Last night, Tropical Storm Chris became the third named storm of the 2024 hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the third named storm usually doesn’t happen until August. That puts the current hurricane season well ahead of the 30-year average for the Atlantic Basin.

Climatology Data from NHC

Data from 1991 through 2020 indicates we usually have one named storm in June and one in July before the Atlantic season heats up in August, September and October. Then we’re back to one in November.

From https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

However, the NHC and a variety of academic and commercial forecasters predicted an extremely active 2024 hurricane season because of high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear associated with the developing La Niña.

Tropical Storm Alberto has already come and gone. It dissipated into the Bay of Campeche last month. But we are now into July.

3 Areas of Interest Currently in Atlantic

At the moment, we have three areas of interest in the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Chris Dissipating

The remnants of Chris are currently moving inland over Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl Nearing High End of Cat 4

The eye of Beryl began crossing the Windward Islands this morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft measured 150 MPH sustained winds at 11:10 AM as Beryl made landfall on Carriacou Island.

150 MPH puts Beryl near the top of Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale that predicts wind damage. Category 4 goes from 130 MPH to 156 MPH.

NHC advises that in a Cat 4 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

However, Beryl is likely to encounter some wind shear in the Caribbean that will slow it down. The latest advisory from NHC predicts Beryl will weaken into a tropical storm before crossing the Yucatan and entering the Gulf on Saturday. See below.

Meanwhile NHC has urged island residents to shelter in place and not venture out during what it describes as “life-threatening conditions.”

Central Atlantic Still Disturbed

A third disturbance is still out in the central, tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. According to NHC, a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week. Formation chance through 2 days is low – only 20%. However, the chance through 7 days is medium – 50%.

Satellite images show training storms moving off the coast of Africa. This probably won’t be the last disturbance we see originating in these latitudes in coming weeks.

From NOAA: https://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG

Note Beryl spinning on the far left of the image above!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/24 based on information from NOAA and NHC

2498 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Forecasters Predict Very Active 2024 Hurricane Season in Gulf

In January, I published a post about a British firm, TropicalStormRisk.com, that predicted an extreme 2024 hurricane season. It’s still early in the year, so any forecasts have a higher-than-normal degree of uncertainty.

However, more and more forecasters and model runs are pointing to the alignment of several factors that increase hurricane/tropical activity. They include the rapid onset of La Niña, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, lower-than-normal barometric pressures in the Gulf of Mexico and more.

La Niña Favors More Storms in Gulf

Very few tropical systems made landfall in the continental U.S. last year thanks to a strong El Niño, which tends to disrupt storms in this latitude.

However, the waning of El Niño and the rapid onset of La Niña decreases wind shear in the Atlantic. This lets more storms form and enter the Caribbean and Gulf as opposed to pushing them toward the mid-Atlantic or tearing them apart. And that supports an aggressive forecast for the 2024 Hurricane Season.

From Hurricane Info by Meteorologist Reuben Garcia. Tracks of Hurricanes during La Niña years. Video showed far fewer storms in Gulf during peak El Niño years.

Warmer-Than-Normal Sea Surface Temperatures

Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin also favor the formation of more hurricanes. Currently, temperatures are more typical of July than March.

Warmer water temps provide more fuel for storms and help them intensify more rapidly. This can lead to the formation of more major hurricanes and hurricanes that form closer to shore with little warning.

From Hurricane Info by Meteorologist Reuben Garcia. European Model suggest extremely high probability of warmer than normal sea surface temps going into the peak of hurricane season.
NOAA’s sea surface temperature anomaly chart for March 12, 2024, shows temps 2 to 4 degrees celsius above normal from Galveston to West Africa.

This may be related to the warmest winter on record – 5.4 degrees above average through February, according to NOAA.

Below Normal Barometric Pressures in Gulf and Caribbean

The European Model is also suggesting something not seen in recent years – below normal barometric pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean.

From Hurricane Info by Meteorologist Reuben Garcia. Long-range European Model run suggests low barometric pressures in Gulf during hurricane season.

Other Factors Consistently Suggest Above-Normal Season

According to Garcia, the European model is also suggesting above normal precipitation in the Gulf and Caribbean and 50% more hurricanes than usual and 70% more accumulated cyclonic energy than usual for the Atlantic. That’s more cyclonic energy than the European model has ever predicted! And it has a pretty good track record in that department.

Garcia also points out that the most recent long-range runs of North American models are largely consistent with the European model.

Many Forecasters Agree

For many of the same reasons:

Colorado State University and the National Hurricane Center won’t release their predictions for another month or two when uncertainty is reduced.

It’s important to note that all of these forecasts are Atlantic-basin wide and probabilistic. They predict the probable volume of activity in the hemisphere, not when or where specific storms will make landfall.

More news to follow as it becomes available.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/13/24

2388 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Extreme 2024 Hurricane Season Predicted

A British website, TropicalStormRisk.com, which has won insurance industry awards for its accuracy, predicts that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 will be more than 50% above the long-term average and 30% above the average for the last three decades.

The website claims it has the best performing statistical seasonal forecast model at all lead times for the period 2003-2023. But it confesses that forecasts six months in advance have high degrees of uncertainty, especially since it’s hard to predict summer sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean during the winter. That said…

TSR predicts 4 major hurricanes, 9 hurricanes and 20 tropical storms.

TropicalStormRisk.com

By comparison, the 2023 Atlantic season produced 3 major hurricanes, 7 hurricanes and 10 tropical storms. The 2023 season ranked fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

Comparisons with Running Averages

Here’s how TSR’s predicted 2024 totals compare to 10-, 30-, and 74-year norms.

TropicalStormRisk.com

ACE stands for Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Various agencies use the metric to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. The concept can also be applied to groups of cyclones, including a whole season’s worth.

When looking at ACE, TSR claims a greater than 50% chance that 2024 will be in the top third of all seasons between 1991 and 2020.

Methodology and Key Predictors for 2024

TSR divides the North Atlantic into three regions and forecasts each separately before summing them. The three regions include the Tropical North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Their model incorporates August through September sea surface temperatures and July through September trade wind speeds over the prior 10-year period.

The group believes El Niño has peaked and will weaken throughout the winter and spring of 2024. El Niño events generally suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, according to the National Weather Service. So a weakening El Niño would allow a resurgence of hurricane activity.

TSR also calls for ACE-activity above the 1991-2020 climate norm level based on predictions of warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region and Caribbean Sea during August-September 2024. However, they caution that a high degree of uncertainty exists six months out.

For the complete report, click here. Warning: you may need a PhD to understand the statistical reasoning behind their forecasts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/17/24

2332 Days since Hurricane Harvey