FEMA Issues Flood Watch for Entire Houston Region

10/24/25 @ 5PM– FEMA and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston office have issued a flood watch for the Houston region that will last until October 26 at 5:00AM CDT. See details below.

WHAT

Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

WHERE

A portion of southeast Texas, including the following areas, Austin, Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Brazos,
Burleson, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston Island, Grimes, Houston, Inland Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Inland Matagorda, Madison, Matagorda Islands, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Southern Liberty, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington and Wharton.

WHEN

From late tonight through early Sunday morning.

IMPACTS

Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS


Although soils are dry ahead of this heavy rainfall event, guidance for high rainfall rates suggests some instances of flash flooding. There will be two rounds of heavy rainfall with the first one being late Friday night into Saturday morning and then again Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

Expect widespread rainfall totals of 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts up to 4-6″. Rainfall rates in the strongest storms could exceed 2-3″ per hour. That could lead to flash flooding if these rainfall rates occur for a prolonged period of time.

We will see a lull in the activity late Saturday morning into the afternoon. That will allow for drainage. So, the flood threat is primarily driven by the potential for high rainfall rates. 

You should monitor forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

RadarScope Image

At 4:15 PM, a large complex of thunderstorms moving across the Hill Country could clearly be seen on radar images.

From Radarscope Pro at 4:15 PM on 10/24/25 using multiple radar sensors.

The warning areas within the boxes above currently indicate:

  • Hail from 1″ to 2.5″ in diameter
  • Winds up to 60 MPH
  • Rainfall of 1′ to 2″ per hour

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, says tornadoes are possible.

The first line of thunderstorms should move through the Lake Houston area shortly before sunrise Saturday.

Second Line of Thunderstorms Expected Saturday Afternoon

Lindner added that a second round of storms looks to develop Saturday afternoon across the Brazos Valley. It should push southeast across our area. This threat will last from mid to late afternoon well into the evening hours on Saturday. The activity will move from northeast to southeast across the area.

ABC13’s future track predicted the Lake Houston area accumulations could approach six inches of rain after the second round clears the area.

The break between rounds of storms should reduce stream and channel flooding.

Lake Report

Lake Conroe is already down a foot and not releasing water.

Lake Houston is down almost half a foot and releasing water at the rate of 4,500 cubic feet per second. The City hopes to lower the lake by a foot ahead of the storm.

Stay Weather Aware

Keep an eye on the sky. Monitor weather forecasts and lake reports. Here’s how.

Severe threat has increased since yesterday.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/24/25 at 5PM

2978 Days since Harvey

City Lowering Lake Houston in Advance of Flood Threat

10/23/25 – Houston District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger announced this afternoon that the City will lower the level of Lake Houston one foot beginning tomorrow morning. The reason: a severe storm arriving Friday night into Saturday morning could dump 2-4 inches of rain over widespread parts of the Lake Houston Watershed. Isolated higher totals up to 6″ are possible where training of thunderstorm cells occurs.

Training refers to a line of thunderstorms that follows a similar path, so that one after another dumps rain on the same neighborhoods.

NOAA’s Severe Storm Center has issued alerts for possible street flooding this weekend for areas that receive high amounts of rain in short periods.

The San Jacinto River Authority is also monitoring rainfall forecasts for the weekend, but has not yet announced whether it will lower Lake Conroe. That lake is already a foot low due to evaporation during the drought. So it likely has enough capacity to absorb the coming rainfall.

Current Lake Level Report as of 5:30 PM 10/23/25

Lake Houston:

Lake Houston is currently at 42.12 feet (normal pool is 42.4 feet). Its gates will be opened beginning tomorrow morning to lower the lake one foot below normal pool, according to pre-release protocols. 

Property owners along the lake should secure their shoreline property. Lake Houston levels can be monitored here.

As of 5:30 PM 10/23/25
Lake Conroe: 

Lake Conroe is currently at 199.98 feet (normal pool is 201 feet). Lake Conroe levels can be monitored here.

Monitor Official Sources for Current Information:

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall may continue through late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

Please use verified news sources for inclement weather information. These include:

Flash flooding is possible. So, stay weather aware and avoid roadways if possible during rain events.

It only takes 6 inches of water to move a car.

HCFCD

Always turn around, don’t drown.

Monitor Travel Conditions Closely with AlertHouston.org

Stay informed of current conditions and avoid traveling near creeks and bayous.

Timely information during emergencies is important. AlertHouston delivers critical information to Houston residents regarding current conditions, expected impacts, and protective actions to keep themselves and their loved ones safe.

Register for emergency alerts through email, text message, voice call, or mobile app push notifications. Most alerts are geo-targeted; subscribers with loved ones around the city may register up to five physical addresses per contact record. Sign up today at www.alerthouston.org.

Threat Starts Friday, But Expect Heaviest Weather on Saturday

As atmospheric lift increases into Friday night and Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist, says that the potential exists for a complex of storms to form over West Texas Friday evening and move toward the Houston area by sunrise Saturday.

This would likely be the first round of more sustained heavy rainfall, according to Lindner. More rain will linger back to the west, so additional thunderstorms and rainfall could develop into Saturday evening.

A few of the thunderstorms on Saturday could become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. However, they do not appear to threaten widespread areas at the moment. Lindner says wind and hail are secondary to the heavy rainfall threat at the moment.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly all of the area under a “marginal” or level 1 out of 5 severe threat for Saturday.

PivotalWeather.com predicts accumulated rainfall in Harris and Montgomery Counties to reach approximately 3.5 inches with higher accumulations to our north and east. But this could change as the storm gets nearer.

Drought May Offset Potential Stream Flooding

Given recent dry conditions, much of this rainfall can be handled. In fact, it is much needed…as long as it does not fall all at once.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has placed the area under a “slight” risk or level 2 out of 4 for flash flooding on Saturday.

Lindner feels that at this time, bayous and creeks should be capable of handling even the higher predicted rainfall totals. He expects to see significant rises on area streams, but feels significant flooding is unlikely at this time.

Lindner also feels that strong southerly winds will push high tides along the coast 4-5 feet higher than normal. Building seas and higher-than-normal tides could create minor coastal flooding at high tides.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/23/25 at 5:30pm

2977 days since Hurricane Harvey

LCA Still Complaining to SJRA About Lake Lowering

9/25/2025 – At this morning’s San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) board meeting, the president of the Lake Conroe Association (LCA) protested the SJRA’s latest efforts to find a suitable compromise that protects upstream and downstream interests.

LCA argued against SJRA’s request to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to increase the maximum release rate in advance of storms from 700 to 2,000 cubic feet per second – even though the increase could help prevent unnecessary releases and conserve water – two things the LCA claims to want.

LCA president Kevin Lacy (white shirt with back to camera) addresses SJRA board today.

Why the Need for Lake Lowering?

During public comment, Kevin Lacy, LCA president, attacked the SJRA’s lake lowering policy, which has been modified several times since Governor Greg Abbott directed the SJRA to “immediately implement” policies that protected downstream residents from flooding.

The release of 79,000 cubic feet per second from Lake Conroe accounted for roughly a third of all the water coming down the West Fork at the peak of Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The resulting surge came without warning in the middle of the night.

It killed more than a dozen people; flooded more than 13,000 homes and 3,300 businesses; damaged the US59 and West Lake Houston Parkway Bridges; flooded Kingwood High School to the second floor; and ultimately cost the City of Houston an estimated $100 million in lost tax revenue. That last number is predicated on lost sales tax revenue AND a decrease of commercial and personal property taxes of 25%.

The idea behind the lake lowering strategy: create extra storage capacity in Lake Conroe to minimize the need for such massive releases in the future. That would reduce flood risk for downstream residents until the City finishes new flood gates on Lake Houston that can keep up with Lake Conroe releases. But the gates are taking much longer than originally anticipated.

Iterations of Lake Lowering Strategy

The SJRA board has modified its lake lowering policy several times in response to pushback from the Lake Conroe Association.

  • At first, the policy called for lowering the lake by fixed amounts for fixed times during the spring rainy season and the peak of hurricane season.
  • Then, the SJRA began lowering the lake by lesser amounts and for shorter times.
  • Next, the SJRA began lowering the lake only in advance of major storms on an as-needed basis.

However, the maximum pre-release rate allowed by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality was 700 cubic feet per second. That was not always fast enough to lower a lake as large as Conroe significantly before storms struck.

Higher Release Rates Actually Conserve Water

So, the SJRA had to release much further in advance of storms, i.e., a week instead of 2-3 days. The excessive lead times sometimes meant that storms could veer away before they struck. Such a “false release” happened last June, according to Lacy’s testimony today.

The obvious solution was to increase the maximum allowable release rate. That would create more storage capacity faster. So, SJRA petitioned TCEQ to increase the release rate to 2,000 CFS, almost triple the previous rate, but not so much that it would flood downstream residents. And its a rate that the existing gates on Lake Houston can keep up with.

But LCA complained about that, too, even though it would minimize wasted water and inconvenience for Lake Conroe boaters.

According to Matt Barrett, SJRA’s Flood Management Division Manager, TCEQ has not yet ruled on the increased release rate.

View Live Testimony

You can view the live testimony on the SJRA website. Lacy’s public comment and the SJRA General Manager’s response take about ten minutes. Start watching at 2:13 into the video as Lacy takes his seat.

Throughout his time at the microphone, Lacy repeatedly complains about how long the City of Houston is taking to install additional floodgates on Lake Houston. Never once does he acknowledge the number of times that the lake lowering policy saved downstream residents from flooding.

Make sure you also watch the response to Lacy’s comments from Aubrey Spear, SJRA’s general manager. Spear explains how SJRA is trying to find a suitable compromise between upstream recreational and downstream flood-mitigation interests.

Spear said in regard to the increase in the release rate to 2,000 CFS, “We are committed to optimizing flood mitigation during major storm events to reduce flood impact to properties both upstream and downstream of the dam. We are adding another tool to our toolbox that could be helpful, but may never be used.” 

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/25/2025

2949 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Details of Lake Conroe Contract between SJRA, City

8/21/24 – The City of Houston approved a new Lake Conroe contract with the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) last September.

For those interested in a deep dive, I’ve posted the entire 48-page document on my Reports Page under the San Jacinto River Authority tab.

For everyone else, I’ve posted a brief summary below. It covers key provisions, including those that affect lake lowering to help reduce flood risk. Spoiler alert: I made a startling discovery at the end of the contract doc.

But let’s start from the top of the Lake Conroe contract.

Key Definition

The first few pages lay out the customary recitals and definitions found in all contracts. The key definition is that of a 1987 Certificate of Adjudication (Number 10-4963, shown in Appendix A) that governs the impoundment, use, diversion, and priorities of water in Lake Conroe.

Ownership Interests

The meat of the contract starts in Article II on page 5: Interests of the Parties. Key points:

  • SJRA owns the land that constitutes the Lake.
  • The City owns two-thirds of the water in it.
  • SJRA owns the remaining one-third.
  • Each party has the right to sell its share of the water.
  • Other revenues from the operation of Lake Conroe, such as income from marina leases, go toward operating and maintaining the lake.

Operational Responsibilities

Article III on Page 6 of the Lake Conroe contract lays out operational responsibilities.

SJRA:

  • Operates and maintains the lake and dam.
  • Handles all the accounting and reporting for water impounded and released.
  • Maintains metering devices and monitors withdrawals (must be accurate within ±5% or better)
  • Lets lakefront homeowners pump water directly from the lake for $150/year to water their lawns

Joint Responsibilities:

  • Annual reports to public and TCEQ of withdrawals.
  • Annual withdrawals by their respective customers.

Release of Water and Reservoir Levels (Section 3.04, )age 8)

  • SJRA must release water when requested by City (subject to restrictions in the Certificate). But it must do so in a way that maximizes the operational yield of the lake.

Liability and Indemnification (Section 3.05, Page 9)

  • Both parties are jointly liable for damages when the lake is operated according to established procedures.
  • If one side is negligent, that party assumes sole responsibility for any damages.

Other sections in Article III cover:

  • Defense of claims
  • Regulatory compliance
  • Water Quality
  • Annual budget and what happens if City Council fails to approve the annual budget
  • Monthly payments by the City to SJRA for capital, operations and maintenance expenses
  • Flood mitigation (Section 3.16 (c), Page 17)

Reports and Inspections; Incidental Matters

Article IV, starting on Page 17 covers:

  • Annual audits
  • Inspection of records
  • Disposal of surplus property

Length of Contract

This contract replaces the original 1968 Lake Conroe contract between the City and SJRA. It will remain in effect until terminated by mutual agreement during the useful life of Lake Conroe.

Default and Notice; Remedies; Mediation

Article V covers how the parties will handle disputes. It starts on page 18 and goes through page 23. Basically, it covers procedures leading up to mediation in the event of disagreements.

Force Majeure

Article VII covers force-majeure events. In law, “Force Majeure” means “unforeseeable circumstances that prevent someone from fulfilling a contract.” This section defines what happens during Acts of God, such as hurricanes, storms, floods, droughts, etc.

This Article allows the temporary suspension of normal rules, except those regarding payments. However, it requires resumption of the normal rules after the event.

Other Provisions

Article VIII contains addresses and contact information for each party and approval procedures.

Article IX includes provisions concerning applicable law (State of Texas), procedures for amendments, etc.

Exhibit A

The Certificate of Adjudication from the Texas Water Commission, dated February 25, 1987, limits total withdrawals from Lake Conroe to 100,000 acre feet per year. It lists the maximum withdrawal rate as 700 cubic feet per second.

Note: Some at the SJRA and City have chafed at this limitation. It restricts pre-release rates that could lower Lake Conroe in advance of approaching storms. Some want to raise the limit so that more water could be released earlier and reduce flood peaks.

The TCEQ amended the Certificate in 2010. It keeps the total withdrawals and max withdrawal rate above constant. But it added an additional use for the water. To the original municipal, industrial and mining categories, they added agriculture. It says they did that because they had not received any complaints about the previous limits within each category.

This is, in essence, a permit to release/sell water. And the permit comes with an obligation – to implement water conservation plans, which the TCEQ letter also spells out.

Exhibit B

This 2016 letter from SJRA’s management to the City explains a residential-lawn-watering permit program for lakefront homeowners. The program lets them pump water directly from the lake for a permit fee of $150 per year (as of 2016). That’s 41 cents per day.

They saved the best part for last. This was a real eye opener.

The permits mandate a “drought contingency plan” that impose watering restrictions when the level of the lake gets to 199 feet above mean sea level. Astute readers may remember that SJRA’s seasonal lake lowering plan took the lake down to 199 for large parts of the year.

Editorial Comment

Hmmmmm. Could that be why the Lake Conroe Association (LCA) fought seasonal lake lowering so vigorously?

People protesting the seasonal lake lowering policy wore red shirts saying “Stop the Drop,” and packed SJRA board meetings.

We may never know with certainty whether the loss of lawn watering was the sole or a contributing reason. But either way, unlimited watering of giant lawns for only 41 cents per day certainly helps explain at least some of the pushback from the LCA.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/24

2549 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Guest Editorial: Where are the New Lake Houston Flood Gates?

7/24/24 – Note: This guest editorial by Kingwood resident Tony Lanson is timely. The Lake Houston Area is currently under yet another flood watch.

Why are the promised Lake Houston flood gates not completed? Why has the schedule slipped repeatedly? Will they really be constructed by 2028 – the latest target date? That’s 11 years after Harvey and five years later than originally promised. We need them to reduce flood risk.

The Need

Harvey devastated Lake Houston communities in 2017. It damaged more than 16,000 homes and 3,300 businesses. It also took more than a dozen lives in Kingwood alone.

The threat to our community’s sense of peace and wellbeing has eroded the value proposition for current and prospective Lake Houston residents and businesses. 

Repeated Delays

Our elected officials did their job. They responded to an urgent mandate to act. They:

  • Persevered through years of consultant reports and 11 engineering alternatives.
  • Dodged inflationary pressure.
  • Kept their focus as the project scope wandered.
  • Persevered through excuses and delays.
  • Found a way to fund the dam gates after the projected cost tripled. 

However, the project now seems stuck in a low gear. Project-level leadership seems to lack urgency to deliver. 

Has the Lake Houston Flood Gates project team been challenged to simplify the process and accelerate the schedule? Urgency seems to be missing – even after the May 2024 flood and Hurricane Beryl rekindled old fears and anxieties.

Early Missteps

From 2018 to 2023 the City of Houston and the CWA presided over contract firms, project scoping, design, costing, permitting, bidding and reviews. 

During that time the Lake Houston Flood Gates project was reduced to half the orginal scope when it was “found that the cost of the proposed gates exceeded the project’s budget” after factoring in reinforcement of the existing dam.  In 2022, City officials said they planned to start the project “later this year and complete construction within 18 months.”

However, the City of Houston could find no contractors to bid on the project because of “constructability risk.” Was there no constructability review during five years of engineering?

Thus, engineering and design for the project turned into a “start over.”

The Latest Plan

The new Lake Houston Flood Gates project has 11 tainter gates in the eastern, earthen portion of the dam instead of crest gates on the western portion. But the project’s cost tripled. 

Proposed location for new tainter gates
Looking N at Lake Houston Dam. New plan would place 11 Tainter gates near red circle.

On May 25, 2024, we learned the project could hopefully begin construction in 2025. Officials hinted at possible completion in 2028. 

Dave Martin, Dan Crenshaw, Charles Cunningham, Dan Huberty, Brandon Creighton and a host of others went back to the well and secured the money. But at best, construction will finish 11 years after Harvey. Palpable frustration exists in the Lake Houston community. 

The frustration is reasonable. We should challenge the explanations. Why is this project taking so long compared to similar projects?

Larger Projects Completed in Less Time at Lower Costs

Consider the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) project to construct the Wirtz and Starcke Dams simultaneously in 1949.

Each dam project alone was larger than the addition of 11 gates to the Lake Houston Dam. And both dams were completed in two years. 

Now, focus on changes to the Wirtz Dam flood gates. In 2023, the LCRA announced it would replace the nine original gates plus one that was added in 1974. That makes 10 gates in total. And each gate is larger than those proposed for Lake Houston. LCRA estimates completion in 2025.

Again, they are doing it in two years compared to Lake Houston’s current 11-year schedule. That should give everyone reason for pause ­– especially considering that the Wirtz gates are twice as big as the Lake Houston gates.  

Each gate will be fabricated on site. The old gates will be replaced individually, requiring coffer dams for each. Yet the Wirtz project will cost half as much as the Lake Houston project. 

Need to Improve Project Management

Can’t we do 10 smaller gates in less than three years? Especially when it’s the same gate replicated 10 times. Replication and standardization usually increase efficiency, reduce time, and cut costs. 

Is an optimization review or constructability review with prospective contractors planned this time to avoid another “no bid” situation? 

Is it time to ask if the Lake Houston Flood Gates project is being managed prudently with best project management practices? 

Good project management assures all stakeholders that the best effort is occurring. It sets reasonable expectations. And project transparency with the public goes a long way in generating trust. 

More gates on the Lake Houston dam will not make everyone safe in the event of another Harvey. But the gates will prevent people from flooding in smaller storms, which are much more frequent. 

Consider, for instance, the early May storm this year. It was a small fraction of Harvey. Yet thousands of homes had floodwater lapping at their foundations. 

Expeditious completion of the project would support peace of mind, well-being and prosperity in our community. We need that right now as the community still reels from Hurricane Beryl and contemplates the start of what experts predict will be an abnormally active hurricane season. 

Shouldn’t we have gotten ahead of this by now? Who will enforce the urgency to act? 

By Tony Lanson, Kingwood Resident

2521 Days since Hurricane Harvey

ReduceFlooding.com will be happy to publish the City’s or Coastal Water Authority’s point of view on this important topic.

“Seasonal” Lake Lowering Out. “Active Storm Management” In.

The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Houston have abandoned their automatic “seasonal” lake lowering policy. The seasonal program lowered Lake Conroe automatically to fixed levels during the rainiest parts of the year (April/May and August/September, i.e., the peak of hurricane season).

They have replaced seasonal lowering with a new program called “active storm management” that gives the City and Lake Conroe dam operators more flexibility to respond to actual weather conditions.

Basically, they can keep water levels up when no storms are expected. But they can lower the lake in advance of major rain…any time of the year…by amounts that will keep the lake level as stable as possible and downstream residents as safe as possible.

It’s a compromise that can be summed up in the words “as needed vs. automatic.”

Below, you can see the exact wording of the new protocols. Below that, you can see my simplified summary/interpretation. I also provide a link to the actual contract between the City and SJRA.

Active Storm Management Protocols for Lake Conroe and Lake Houston – 2024

Spring
  • Beginning April 1 through June 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe from normal pool of 201’ msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for forecasted storm event inflows (to 200.5’ msl). The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
  • Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between April 1 and June 1.
  • In the event a major rainfall is forecasted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.0’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 200.0’ msl could occur.
Fall
  • Beginning August 1 through October 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe if actual lake levels are at normal pool of 201 msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.5’ msl). After Labor Day, storage capacity may be increased an additional six inches (to 200.0’ msl). Diversion volumes requested to reach intended levels will be dependent on the actual lake levels. The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
  • Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between August 1 and October 1.
  • If a named storm is predicted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 199.5’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 199.5’ msl could occur.
Protocol – Lake Houston
  • Year Round
    • City of Houston will initiate releases to lower Lake Houston prior to major rainfall events.
    • Conservation Pool Elevation is 42.4’ msl.
    • Lake Houston level reduced to 41.4’ msl if a 24-hour rainfall forecast of 3 inches or more is expected. within the Lake Houston watershed.
    • Under extraordinary weather circumstances, Lake Houston level may be reduced below 41.4’.
Duration
  • The Protocols above will extend to the end of 2024 but will be reviewed by the stakeholders in October/November of 2024. During the review, the stakeholders will discuss strategies that extend beyond 2024.
Advocacy and Education
  • All stakeholders will work to support flood mitigation projects and efforts across the upper watershed, including improvement of land use regulations to reduce runoff from new development in counties that contribute flow to Lake Houston.
  • Because public education regarding completed and ongoing downstream mitigation efforts is critical to generating upstream support for continued active storm management at Lake Conroe, all stakeholders agree to educate their constituents regarding: active storm management protocols being implemented at Lake Houston, completed and ongoing sediment removal projects in the San Jacinto River basin and Lake Houston, and continued progress on the Lake Houston spillway modifications.
  • Because of its impact on effective active storm management, all stakeholders will support City of Houston and SJRA efforts to amend the Certificate of Adjudication for Lake Conroe to increase the maximum diversion rate.
  • All stakeholders agree to support efforts to limit further construction of habitable structures around Lake Conroe below elevation 207’ msl.
Important Notes
  • All water released from Lake Conroe as part of active storm management is being accounted for from the City of Houston’s 2/3 share and reported to TCEQ by the City of Houston. Therefore, all final decisions on diversions are ultimately the City’s and must be communicated to the SJRA in writing. This includes defining active storm management protocols.
  • All flood mitigation protocols could be limited due to drought conditions.

Rehak’s Summary

Note the words “MAY REQUEST” in the first sentences under Spring and Fall. Lowering is now on an “as needed” basis, not automatic.

Note also the words “RESUME NORMAL RECAPTURING” in the second bullet points under Spring and Fall. Operators will attempt to return the lake to its normal level after the storm threat has passed. The lake will not automatically be kept lower for the rest of the season.

All stakeholders have agreed to review the policy at the end of this year and modify it as necessary.

All stakeholders have also agreed to support mitigation projects including:

  • Land use regulations that reduce runoff
  • Education of residents re:
    • Active storm management protocols at Lake Houston
    • Construction progress of more Lake Houston gates
    • Sediment removal projects
  • An increase in the maximum pre-release rate for Lake Conroe
  • Limiting future construction around Lake Conroe to a safe level (207 feet above sea level).

The City of Houston must initiate lake lowering IN WRITING.

Water released from Lake Conroe at the City’s request will be reported to the TCEQ.

The City makes all decisions on releases.

Its decisions are final.

The City may redefine “active storm management” protocols, but should consider drought conditions when making decisions.

Decisions to Lower Lake Outside of Spring/Fall Dates

A release during Tropical Storm Alberto in June this year triggered a protest from the Lake Conroe Association because it fell outside the dates indicated above (April/May and August/September).

However, during the April SJRA Board meeting at which Active Storm Management was approved unanimously, the official minutes note that all parties agreed that the City could order the release of water from Lake Conroe at any time – regardless of the season.

For the historical record, here is the actual contract between the City and SJRA re: the operation of Lake Conroe.

For ease of future reference, you can also find the details above on this site’s Lake Lowering page.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/24

2492 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Association Complains About Lowering Lake Conroe … Again

Updated 6/25/24 – After the near miss with Tropical Storm Alberto, Lake Conroe Association (LCA) President Kevin Lacey penned an angry, demanding letter to the City of Houston (CoH) about lowering the lake 5 inches.

Complaints In Lacey Letter

Among other things, the letter complains that:

  • Lowering the lake after June 1 is a “breach” of the “Active Storm Management Agreement”
  • The amount of rainfall in the original prediction did not justify the amount of “excessive” lowering
  • CoH did not stop lowering Lake Conroe when the storm veered to the southwest
  • CoH wasted its water, instead of using it “beneficially”
  • The lake likely won’t be able to recover its normal water levels during summer

Use of the word “breach” by Mr. Lacey seems to imply that his association has legal standing to dispute the actions of the SJRA and CoH. He demands that they account to him for their actions during the storm at a special meeting with LCA.

The Lake Conroe Association has a long history of protesting lake lowering. LCA sounds like a homeowner’s association, but it is not. LCA was originally founded as a nonprofit 50 years ago to combat the growth of Hydrilla (a fast-growing invasive plant species) around the lake.

Since then, LCA claims it has raised a million dollars ($20,000 per year) through donations. Currently it claims it is also fighting for “safe water levels.”

Motive Behind the Fight?

Some believe that insufficiently dredged areas around Lake Conroe motivated this fight. Regular HOAs cannot afford dredging and homeowners have difficulty operating their boats when lake levels are down.

Mr. Lacey seems oblivious to fact that many around the lake see preemptive lowering as a positive thing that helps reduce their flood risk. Anecdotally, I have heard that many homes flooded around Lake Conroe during May although I don’t have an exact count.

May Storm Dramatizes Problem of Forecast Uncertainty

After 7 inches of rain fell north of Lake Conroe in late April, SJRA began releasing water for days. They had the release rate down to 8,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) and were actually decreasing the release rate, when another 11 inches fell in the same location.

Lake Conroe flood gates
Gates at Lake Conroe can release water 15X faster than Lake Houston’s gates. This makes coordinating pre-releases difficult.

Within hours, SJRA escalated the release rate to 72,000 CFS, flooding hundreds of homes downstream, nearly flooding thousands more, breaking sand mine dikes, and sweeping sediment downstream – just as the CoH was about to begin a $34 million dredging program.

Seventy-two thousand CFS was SJRA’s second highest release rate in its history. Only Hurricane Harvey’s 79,000 CFS exceeded that.

Decreasing the release rate just hours before increasing it 9X underscores the difficulty of precisely predicting how much rain will fall where.

But Mr. Lacey didn’t acknowledge that difficulty anywhere in his letter. Nor did he reference the May storm. Or homes around Lake Conroe that flooded. Or that the City of Houston has the right to call for SJRA water year round.

He especially forgot to mention that when Alberto was pushing southwest, the National Hurricane Center predicted that another potential tropical storm could move north toward Houston. That explains the likely reason Houston continued calling for 660 CFS even after Alberto headed for Mexico and the Valley.

Ultimately, the second storm followed Alberto into Mexico yesterday. But had it moved north, there wouldn’t have been time to achieve meaningful lake-level reduction without flooding homes downstream and staying within the bounds of Lake Conroe’s permit from the TCEQ.

Correcting Other Allegations

To correct some other issues in the Lake Conroe Association letter:

  • While releasing 660 CFS per second before and during Alberto, SJRA did not exceed its TCEQ Permit which specifies 700 CFS maximum. If Mr. Lacey supported increasing that, perhaps next time, SJRA could release water closer to storms when the certainty level of forecasts is higher.
  • Breach implies some kind of a contract exists between LCA and CoH. It doesn’t. Rather, SJRA has a series of operational guidelines in place with CoH.
  • CoH owns two-thirds of the water in Lake Conroe. The “agreement” referenced by Lacey isn’t even labeled as an agreement. It’s a series of operating protocols. They let CoH call for water whenever it wants, not just during peak rainy seasons in the Spring and Fall. (More on that tomorrow.)
  • Many would consider preventing the potential flooding of homes a beneficial use of the water released, even if it did ultimately flow into the Gulf of Mexico.
  • We’ve heard LCA claim before that Lake Conroe won’t be able to return to its normal level in summer because of such releases. In 2021, LCA actually filed a lawsuit based on that claim. The judge ultimately dismissed the case with prejudice after SJRA had to increase release rates repeatedly that summer to keep homes and businesses around the lake from flooding.

Previous Exaggeration

In 2018, the Lake Conroe Association also claimed that seasonal lowering would destroy home values around Lake Conroe. A spot check of the Montgomery County Appraisal District site shows that many lakefront homes have actually doubled in value since lake lowering went into effect. I found one that virtually tripled.

Perhaps Lake Conroe residents are more concerned about whether their homes will flood than how far they have to step down into their boats. After all, the National Hurricane Center has predicted the most active hurricane season ever.

For More Information

To read the actual text of documents referenced in this post, follow these links:

The last includes elements of seasonal lowering, but differs in several important ways. It represents a compromise among automatic, season-long lowering and:

  • Construction delays for additional Lake Houston Gates
  • Upstream convenience and downstream risk reduction
  • Drought and water conservation concerns.

It does this by approaching lake lowering on an as-needed basis. It also specifies when the SJRA and City may bypass the protocols. See more tomorrow.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/24/2024

2491 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One

6/17/24 – At 4PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The disturbance in the Gulf has a 70 percent chance of tropical formation during the next two days.

NHC also issued a tropical storm watch for Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande and onward to Boca de Catan in Mexico.

If a tropical storm forms, they will call it Alberto.

A satellite photo taken this morning of Potential Tropical Cyclone One shows storm clouds already starting to wind around a broad area of low pressure centered over the Yucatan. It has been spinning rain north into Texas and Louisiana. But the main event starts tomorrow.

National Hurricane Center Atlantic-Wide Geocolor View, taken 6/17/24, early AM.

Moving NNW at 7 MPH with 40MPH Winds

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  

NHC expects a turn toward the west-northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday. The system will likely approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Current maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.

National Hurricane Center

Some slow strengthening is possible, The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. Formation chance through:

  • 48 hours…high…70 percent.
  • 7 days…high…70 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Life-Threatening Flooding Likely in Mexico and Central America

“Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.” 

The graphic below shows accumulations expected over the next five days.

Total expected rainfall from Tuesday through Sunday. Source: National Weather Service.

According to NHC, “Potential Tropical Cyclone One will produce “rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.”

Lake Houston Area Will See Far Less Rainfall

Locally, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts:

  • Coastal Counties: 7-9 inches (widespread), isolated totals over 12+ inches
  • I-10 corridor: 3-5 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 7 inches
  • North of I-10: 3-4 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 5 inches.

Lindner adds, “The most favorable time for heavy rainfall over southeast Texas will be from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.”

Use the rainfall amounts above as average. Training bands can quickly result in much higher totals and flash flooding in small areas near other areas that see little rainfall.”

Watersheds Most at Risk

Where the heaviest rains fall will determine responses on area watersheds. Lindner feels most Harris County creeks and bayous can handle 4-6 inches of rainfall. However, he warns that if isolated higher totals exceed 8 inches in southern Harris County, we might see trouble on:

  • Clear Creek and its tributaries
  • Armand Bayou
  • Willow Spring Bayou
  • Big Island Slough
  • Taylor’s Bayou
  • Goose Creek
  • Berry Bayou
  • Hunting Bayou
  • Keegans Bayou
  • Willow Waterhole

Lake Report

At 5PM, the SJRA has lowered Lake Conroe by one-third of a foot.

The Coastal Water Authority has lowered Lake Houston by a full foot.

I asked Lindner how much rain he expected between the lakes. The short answer: 2-3 inches with isolated totals up to 4 inches. With that amount of lake lowering, he does not expect structural flooding. But there are other dangers.

The mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park shows how high sediment deposits have become. At Lake Houston’s normal level, that sand lurks just inches below the surface. Boaters have churned a temporary shallow channel through the sandbar with their props.

Mouth of Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park on afternoon of 6/17/24 with lake down one foot.

But with all the sand coming down the West Fork from sand-mine breaches, that sediment you see above will likely increase during this storm.

Confluence of Spring Creek and West Fork (right) near US59 Bridge on 6/16/24

But the greatest immediate threat exists near the coast.

Coastal Warnings

Six to nine foot swells will be common throughout the Gulf for the next several days, according to NHC.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
  • Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
  • Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX…1-3 ft
  • Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA…1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/17/24 at 5PM based on information from NHC and NWS

2484 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lakes Being Lowered in Advance of Expected Heavy Rains

6/14/24, 10:00 AM – The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) is lowering Lake Conroe and the Coastal Water Authority (CWA) is lowering Lake Houston in advance of expected heavy rainfall associated with a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.

At this hour, forecasters predict storms could drop 3-6 inches of rain on the Houston area with the highest totals near the coast. But rain should drop off fairly sharply inland. However, uncertainty remains about how sharp the drop off will be.

Timing of Rain

Most of the rain should fall Monday through Wednesday, but could start as early as Sunday night. However, some models are beginning to forecast the heaviest rains from Tuesday into early Thursday.

Either way, dam operators should have time to lower their respective lakes and create extra storage capacity for stormwater.

Location of Disturbance

At 7:44 AM EDT, the center of the area of concern had not moved since yesterday. Moisture continues to build in the Bay of Campeche. But forecasters have increased the chances of any disturbance turning into a named storm from 40% yesterday to 50% today.

The National Hurricane Center has this to say: “A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.”

Houston Will Not Likely Take Direct Hit, But…

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, “The Houston area will not likely take a direct hit from the system. While any tropical depression/storm is likely to remain south of the upper Texas coast, the deep ESE/SE fetch of moisture on the northeastern side of the feature will begin to arrive along the Texas coast as early as late Sunday and more likely into Monday and Tuesday.”

He continued, “It should be noted that the broad nature of this system and potentially ill-defined surface circulation will likely result in impacts spread well away from the actual low itself. Also, until any actual surface low forms, uncertainty will remain with the forecasts and impacts.”

Some models are predicting “outer banding features” in the Houston area. Despite a fair amount of uncertainty, the incoming tropical air mass could drop high amounts of rainfall in a short period of time.

That said, the National Weather Service has released this map showing predicted rainfall amounts for the next seven days.

Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Pre-Releasing

In preparation, Lake Conroe began releasing 660 cubic feet per second (CFS) after a City of Houston request early Friday morning. That is the maximum amount the SJRA can release before a storm under its permit. As the lake starts filling, that amount increases.

Mark Micheletti, an SJRA board member, said that SJRA hopes to lower the lake by six inches before the rains arrive.

Simultaneously, the CWA has opened the gates on the Lake Houston Dam. CWA is currently releasing 1335 CFS.

So, Lake Houston is releasing water twice as fast. And Lake Houston is half the size of Lake Conroe. Therefore, areas downstream should see lower lake levels faster. As it should be. Remember that Lake Houston is 30 miles closer to the coast, where forecasters expect the highest rainfall.

All gates on Lake Houston have been fixed and are fully operational.

Wind and Tide Impacts

For many people, rain isn’t the only concern. According to Lindner, “Winds will also start to increase early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the deepening area of low pressure to the southwest and building high pressure over the SE US. Winds of 20-30mph can be expected across the Gulf/nearshore/and inland bays with 20-25mph across the coastal counties,” according to Lindner.

For boaters and all those who work offshore, nearshore seas will build into the 4-6 ft range by Monday morning and 5-8 ft by Tuesday morning with offshore heights approaching 8-10 ft.

The current tide forecast indicates values of 1-2 ft above normal. But when coupled with the building seas at times of high tide water levels may get close to coastal flooding thresholds. That should happen Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some beach front locations will begin to experience minor coastal flooding around 3-4 ft above normal tide levels.

Given the potential prolonged nature of the ESE winds across the Gulf, we have the potential for tidal trapping. That’s when incoming seas won’t let the previous high tide drain away. This can, over time, build water levels in the bays. 

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/14/24

2481 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flickinger Provides Updates On Gates, Dredging, Northpark, More

City of Houston District E Council Member Fred Flickinger addressed a group of local executives at the Kingwood Country Club this morning. He covered a wide range of topics, both in his talk and during Q&A. They included the status of five flood-related topics for the Lake Houston Area:

  • New Gates for the Lake Houston Dam
  • Seasonal Lake Lowering
  • Additional dredging in Lake Houston
  • Kingwood Diversion Ditch expansion
  • Last weekend’s flooding on Northpark Drive
Flickinger addressing the Kingwood Executive Group at the Kingwood Country Club on 4/24/24

Floodgate Construction Could Start in ’25 or ’26

Within two sentences of standing up, Flickinger got straight to the subject of flooding and new, bigger floodgates for the Lake Houston Dam. He said, “Obviously, the big thing is getting additional gates. That is currently pending a FEMA review and approval.”

He continued, “We have about $150 million secured for those. Much of that has come via Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s office. Also the State, thanks to Representatives Dan Huberty and Charles Cunningham, and Dave Martin, my predecessor. Stephen Costello [the City’s Flood Czar] has also all done great work. They’ve all really done yeomen’s jobs getting money for the dam gates.”

Looking S. New gates will be built in the earthen portion of the dam to the left of the four small gates you see now.

“We’re looking at construction probably in late 2025 or sometime in 2026,” said Flickinger. “That’s obviously the biggest key to reducing flooding.”

Flickinger also said that he believes the current Mayor remains committed to the project.

Seasonal Lake Lowering

Regarding lowering Lakes Houston and Conroe, Flickinger said the City and SJRA have moved to an event-driven strategy rather than a seasonal one. Automatically lowering the level of Lake Conroe twice a year to reduce flood risk in the Lake Houston Area generated pushback from Lake Conroe residents.

For some time now, the politically divisive strategy has been replaced by an “as-needed” lake-lowering policy in one or both lakes depending on where and when rain falls.

However, the “as needed” policy requires precise forecasting. And several times lately, rain has shifted at the last minute. Ironically, that supports the need for bigger gates that release water faster. They can create extra storage in Lake Houston while still reducing the lead time needed, so forecasters can be absolutely certain of the need to lower the lake.

After all, that’s the drinking water supply for more than 2 million people. You don’t want to lower it needlessly if it won’t be refilled right away.

More Dredging on Tap

Flickinger next addressed the need for more dredging. He said that the City is currently removing another 800,000 yd³ of sediment between Kings Point and FM1960.

“Again, funding for that largely came from Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s office,” he said. “Some people in the government questioned whether that was Harvey-related sediment. But we got the funding! And dredging has started. So that’s a really good thing.”

Diversion Ditch/Walnut Lane Bridge

“The next issue with flooding,” said Flickinger, “is really the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.” The ditch cuts south from St. Martha’s Catholic Church to River Grove Park through the western portion of Kingwood.

“The Walnut Lane Bridge has about a fourth of the surface area below it that the Kingwood Drive and North Park Bridges have. Because of that, it works somewhat like a dam. Crenshaw just secured $4 million to address that, but we have got to have a cost/benefit ratio of one or greater, which will be a challenge. So, we’re working on that.”

Looking north along Diversion Ditch. Notice how it narrows under the Walnut Lane Bridge.

“And that money probably won’t become available for another six months. Hopefully, we can get that cost/benefit analysis to where we need it by then and use that money to rebuild the Walnut Lane Bridge. It’s a huge deal that affects Trailwood, Forest Cove, and even people who live along Bens Branch.”

“Part of the water from Ben’s branch is actually supposed to go to the lake via the Diversion Ditch,” said Flickinger. (That’s how the ditch got its name.) However, Flickinger noted that when the Diversion Ditch backs up, water goes down Bens Branch instead.

“And we’re getting more and more of that because of the development in Montgomery County…That’s part of why Kingwood High School flooded.”

Northpark Flooding

Last weekend, Northpark Drive flooded near the construction zone.

At the time, I conjectured that one or more of the drains may have been blocked. Flickinger revealed the cause this morning.

He said the drain was never tied into the new drainage system.

“It turns out that they had a change in foremen on the job, and one of the drains was not connected to the storm sewer.”

Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger

“That is what caused that big fiasco. Now our office is going to contact the construction team every time we have a significant rain event and ask them to double check, so we don’t have any issues obstructing stormwater,” said Flickinger.

“Anytime you’ve got construction, there’s a certain amount of mess associated with it. But obviously, we don’t need somebody causing flooding by forgetting or blocking something.”

Looking E along Northpark on Sunday morning, 4/21/24 at area where drain was not tied in.

Before Flickinger had to leave for a meeting downtown, it became clear to everyone in the room that flooding was one of his primary concerns.

For someone who’s been in the job less than four months, he was very aware of the complex intricacies and interdependencies of the Lake Houston Area’s drainage problems. And that was very encouraging news!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/24/24

2430 Days since Hurricane Harvey