Where to Find Hurricane Information
Hurricane season has started. For those new to the Gulf Coast and younger family members, here’s where to find authoritative hurricane information. Many of these sites are updated several times a day. They contain information that can help keep you and your family alive when severe weather threatens. So please share.
Most if not all forecasting agencies predict an above-average to well-above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes for 2024. Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner offers these tips for staying alert and ready. Here’s how to keep your eye on the tropics and factors that contribute to hurricanes.
National Hurricane Center
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) offers the most up-to-date tropical storm and hurricane information. During the season, NHC updates its outlooks several times per day. They give you 2- and 7-day outlooks with the probability of tropical system formation and the most likely tracks for storms. The familiar cone graphics that show possible storm tracks will change this year to include watches, warnings, and impact areas, which can extend well outside of the cone.
NHC also contains an incredible amount of other valuable information. It includes tips on hurricane preparedness, education, tracking, records, satellite imagery, and more. Much more.
Lindner reminds us that seasonal forecasts do not include storm tracks and landfalls. Steering currents in the atmosphere that guide storm tracks change from day to day and week to week. So don’t focus on the “numbers.” Instead prepare every year!
Contributing Factors
Several factors continue to support a lot of activity this year. They include:
Sea Surface Temperatures
The Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico continue to have well-above-normal sea surface temperatures. Recent high pressure systems have warmed the Gulf to near record levels for this time of year. With that said Gulf water temperatures can quickly change up and down. Overall, Atlantic basin water temperatures continue to run closer to middle summer than early June. Additionally, the Atlantic Ocean has a classic look to the above average waters that in the past have resulted in above average tropical activity. Check out seasonal anomalies (deviation from normal) at Current Operational SST Anomaly Charts – OSPO (noaa.gov).
El Niño/La Niña
El Niño (warm water in the Pacific from south America to south of Hawaii) continues to quickly fade. Cool water is starting to replace it. The Pacific will transition into La Nina toward mid- to late summer.
This tends to support Atlantic basin tropical development…especially in the Caribbean Sea. La Nina conditions help to reduce wind shear and create conditions more favorable for tropical storms and hurricane to not only develop but intensify. This NOAA presentation covers the transition and is dated 6/3/24.
NOAA’s Climate website offers regular updates on the transition. So does Columbia’s Climate School.
Global Long Range Models
Global long range models continue to show an active and wet Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the June-September time period. They forecast much-above-average rainfall in the SW/W Caribbean Sea. This signal in 2020 coincided with several tropical storms and hurricanes moving from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.
Above-average rainfall tend to suggest favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms that can grow into tropical storms and hurricanes. See NMME Model – 3-monthly Total Precip Anomaly for North Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
ECMWF predicts below-average, sea-level pressures throughout portions of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea into at least the southern Gulf of Mexico. Lower pressures make it easier for tropical systems to form. See ECMWF | Charts.
Recent guidance from ECWMF and Colorado State University indicates enhanced potential for development in the Caribbean. Watch this in the upcoming season.
Storms that develop in the Caribbean tend to impact land areas more than storms that form off the coast of Africa. Storms that form off Africa tend to have at least some opportunity to turn northward over the open Atlantic Ocean prior to reaching the land areas in the western basin.
Local
As always…now is the time to prepare. Have plans of action in place should a tropical storm or hurricane approach the Texas coast this season. It all starts with accurate and timely hurricane information.
Check tropical outlooks daily to keep up to date on potential areas of interest at National Hurricane Center (noaa.gov).
Should a tropical system threaten the Texas coast detailed impacts and forecasts can be found at the local National Weather Service Office webpage Houston/Galveston, TX (weather.gov).
The Links Page of ReduceFlooding contains links to these websites and dozens of others related to weather, preparedness, floodplains and releases from local lakes.
Please pass this information along to newcomers to the area and your family members.
Posted on 6/3/24 by Bob Rehak based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
2470 Days since Hurricane Harvey
