When Flood Peaks Will Arrive, How High They Will Get
(Updated 8:30 AM 5/4/24 with current inundation map) This post explains when flood peaks will arrive in the Humble-Kingwood-Huffman Areas and how high they will get. It also includes evacuation advice from local officials and a photographic look at flooding so far.
Peaks Arriving at Separate Times
After almost 20 inches of rain this week in the headwaters of the East Fork and West Fork San Jacinto rivers, the runoff has finally worked its way down to the Lake Houston Area. Luckily, the crests will arrive at separate times. That should reduce flooding somewhat. The peaks won’t build on top of each other.
The National Weather Service has already reduced its predicted peak for the West Fork by one foot. And the SJRA has reduced its release rate from Lake Conroe to about a third of what it was yesterday morning.
East Fork Flood Crest Moving to Lake Houston Tonight
The East Fork crest has moved into Harris County at FM1485 and should arrive in Lake Houston tonight.
The waters will spread out somewhat as they approach Lake Houston, reducing their height. But 11.5 feet is a hefty rise in one day!
Farther upstream in Cleveland, the East Fork flood peak started trending down last night. By this morning, it had fallen 9 feet.
Expect rapid, radical rises on the East Fork as the flood peak moves toward Lake Houston.
West Fork Peak Migrates Downstream
The West Fork flood peak should reach the US59 bridge sometime tomorrow night. Today, the crest moved past SH99.
By tomorrow, the river at SH99 should start receding and fall below flood stage early Sunday morning.
In the meantime, downstream at the US59 bridge, the West Fork is at 56.38 feet and should rise to 61 by midnight tomorrow.
NWS doesn’t compile similar graphs for the Lake Houston Dam. But tonight a five foot wall of water was going over the spillway.
Here’s how that will affect people below the dam.
Mayor Prioritizes Kingwood Second Day in Row
Mayor John Whitmire, Council Member Fred Flickinger, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey and State Representative Charles Cunningham held another press conference this afternoon in Kingwood to urge people in at-risk areas to evacuate.
Their primary messages:
- Humble, Kingwood and Huffman are in the eye of this storm. We are the most affected watershed in Harris County: the place where the two biggest rivers converge at the tip of a massive funnel.
- Floodwaters can build rapidly and cut people off.
- High-water rescues can put both you and first responders at risk.
- Better safe than sorry.
How bad could it get? See the inundation maps and photos below.
Compare These Two Inundation Maps
To underscore their points, compare these two inundation maps, from the Harris County Flood Control District’s Flood Warning System.
Just three days ago, the upper Lake Houston Area looked like this.
Yesterday, the map looked like this.
Flood waters can build rather quickly, stranding those who dally.
You can use the historical feature in the inundation mapping tool to see where the crest was near your address in previous floods. But make sure you know when the crest arrived. Who can remember the exact day and hour when Harvey’s flood peak arrived near you?
Experiment. Look at several days before and after when you think the flood peaks arrived.
Specific Advice from Harris County’s Meteorologist
Here’s evacuation advice from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner by watershed. It has not changed since yesterday. So if you read it then, skip down to photos taken today as the flood started to build.
East Fork San Jacinto
Peak of flood wave is moving into NE Harris County. Widespread severe flooding is in progress. Numerous water rescues have been conducted today. The river continues to quickly rise as the crest moves downstream..
Impacted subdivisions:
- Idle Wilde
- Idle Glen
- Cypress Point
- River Terrace
- Magnolia Point
- Northwood Country Ests
Eastern portions of Kingwood (lowest areas closest to the river):
- Riverchase
- Woodspring Forest
- Woodstream
West Fork San Jacinto River near SH99 and I-45:
Major flooding is in progress upstream and downstream of I-45 including large portions of River Plantation and portions of Woodloch downstream to SH 242 and SH 99. The river is at crest and will begin a slow fall tonight with a more rapid fall on Saturday.
West Fork San Jacinto River at Humble (US 59)
River is rising from upstream inflows… Widespread low land flooding is in progress and will worsen through the night into Saturday. The river will peak Saturday afternoon and evening with a long flat crest and slow recession. The river will rise another 5-6 feet into Saturday.
Flooding of streets and structures near the river and its tributaries is likely along the river. Portions of the following subdivisions are likely to be impacted with the greatest impacts nearest the river.
- Belleau Woods
- Rivercrest
- Northshore
- Forest Cove (nearest the river)
- Kings River Estates
- Atascocita Shores
- Kings Point
- Kings Harbor
- Kings River
- Kingwood Greens
- Fosters Mill
- Kingwood Lakes
- Barrington
- Trailwood
- Deer Ridge Estates
The following areas will be completely flooded with several feet of water: Deerwood Country Club, Deer Ridge Park, River Grove Park, Kingwood Country Club.
Elevated residents near the river should be prepared to be cut-off through the weekend.
San Jacinto River Near Sheldon
Major flooding is expected at all locations along the lower portions of the river.
Rio Villa is now cut-off as well as low-lying, river-bottom areas around Highlands and HWY 90.
High velocity flows may damage vessels and barges near I-10 and result in loss of mooring.
Flow may approach the I-10 river bridge west of the river crossing. Additionally, high flows will result in the suspension of Ferry service.
Kingwood Photos Taken Before Peaks Arrived
I took these photos this morning and afternoon.
Let me start with one from the West Fork. It shows the area near the Hallett mine between Northpark Drive, FM1314, Sorters-McClellan Road and the river.
This photo is farthest upstream of this group, all taken on the West Fork and hints at what’s headed our way. Note how the river reaches the treetops. Can you even see where the river is?
Paddleboard will probably not be safe in the coming days. But after looking at heartbreak all morning, it brought a smile.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2024
2440 Days since Hurricane Harvey