Heavy Rainfall, Strong Thunderstorms Likely Friday, Saturday

A series of strong storm systems will converge over south Texas late this week bringing heavy rainfall. Moisture will rapidly increase Thursday afternoon and evening.

Black Friday Looking Like Bleak Friday

“We may even see development of showers over the coastal waters Thursday afternoon that begins to spread inland Thursday evening,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist. “Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase and expand in coverage and intensity early Friday. A warm front may begin to slow or even stall over southeast Texas from Friday afternoon into early Saturday. That will allow prolonged heavy rainfall due to cell training.”

Moisture profiles for the Friday afternoon into Saturday point toward heavy rainfall.

“Ingredients are in play for prolonged heavy rainfall, cell training, and possible flash flooding.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Then a cold front will approach the region at some point Saturday into early Sunday helping to focus additional rainfall. The upper level trough will slowly move eastward late Saturday into Sunday leading to decreasing rain chances and cold conditions.

Up to 5-6 inches Rainfall Possible with Hail Threat

A few of the storms on Friday and Saturday could be strong with the main threat being small hail.

Rainfall amounts over the next 5 days (mainly Friday and Saturday) will likely average 1-3 inches over the region with isolated totals of 5-6 inches possible.

Grounds are dry, so much of this rainfall will likely be beneficial. It will help mitigate increasing drought and fire-weather concerns.
Jeff Lindner

Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding

“However,” says Lindner, “should any sort of heavy rainfall axis develop and anchor over any specific location for a period of time…flash flooding could develop. The main concern would be street flooding with the heavier rainfall rates, but rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible in heavy rainfall materializes in the more urban areas.”